分析人士預(yù)測,隨著特朗普政府即將就任,并購市場近期的低迷交易態(tài)勢有望得到扭轉(zhuǎn)。
在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)年交易活動減少和交易受阻之后,觀察人士認(rèn)為特朗普的第二個任期將帶來大量新交易機(jī)會。特朗普在競選時提出了對企業(yè)友好的議程,承諾全面放松監(jiān)管。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席美國股票策略師大衛(wèi)·科斯?。―avid Kostin)在上周三發(fā)布的一份分析報告中寫道:“在過去四年里,美國聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)和司法部反壟斷局(Department of Justice Antitrust Division)對許多企業(yè)的合并提案提出了質(zhì)疑,但在新一屆政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,這種監(jiān)管態(tài)勢可能會趨向?qū)捤??!?/p>
根據(jù)同一份報告,高盛預(yù)計2025年的并購活動將增加20%。在過去幾年中,并購活動大幅減少。高盛預(yù)計,2024年的并購活動將較上年下降15%。
拜登(Joe Biden)政府以企業(yè)合并會損害消費(fèi)者利益為由,對其采取了更為強(qiáng)硬的立場。在聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會主席莉娜·汗(Lina Khan)和司法部反壟斷局助理總檢察長喬納森·坎特(Jonathan Kanter)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)一直在探索新的評估標(biāo)準(zhǔn),以評估是否批準(zhǔn)某些合并案??蔡睾秃共辉傧襁^去那樣只關(guān)注潛在交易是否會導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者價格上漲,而是考慮兩家公司合并對其所在行業(yè)的整體影響。實(shí)質(zhì)上,他們更為細(xì)致地審查了潛在合并對供應(yīng)商和競爭對手的負(fù)面影響。
現(xiàn)在,隨著特朗普即將開始第二個任期,這種審查預(yù)計將會消失——過去兩天的股市動態(tài)反映了這一現(xiàn)實(shí)。
在特朗普擊敗副總統(tǒng)卡瑪拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)贏得大選后的第二天,預(yù)計會進(jìn)行并購交易的幾家公司的股票因市場預(yù)期這些交易可能順利完成而出現(xiàn)上漲。
擁有奢侈品牌蔻馳(Coach)和凱特·絲蓓(Kate Spade)的泰佩思琦(Tapestry Inc)股價在兩天內(nèi)上漲了5.5%,原因是市場預(yù)期該公司與邁克高仕(Michael Kors)的所有者Capri Holdings的合并有望獲得監(jiān)管部門的批準(zhǔn)。Capri股價自上周二收盤以來上漲了10%。在航空板塊中,F(xiàn)rontier和Spirit的股價分別上漲了11%和15%,原因是市場認(rèn)為這兩家公司之前被擱置的合并交易現(xiàn)在有可能獲得批準(zhǔn)。
美國最大的兩家食品雜貨連鎖公司克羅格(Kroger)和艾伯森(Albertsons)的合并交易也似乎更有可能進(jìn)行了。在聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會起訴阻止這兩家食品雜貨連鎖公司合并后,該交易目前已被法庭擱置。自上周二特朗普贏得總統(tǒng)大選的可能性變得明朗后,克羅格和艾伯森的股價均有所上漲。
這些股票的上漲被市場解讀為投資者相信并購活動將順利進(jìn)行的跡象。預(yù)期的政策寬松是并購交易的關(guān)鍵因素之一,因?yàn)檫@會給企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人留下了他們的交易有望最終完成的印象。
科斯汀在報告中寫道:“首席執(zhí)行官信心是影響高管參與并購活動意愿的關(guān)鍵變量?!?/p>
高盛表示,盡管監(jiān)管環(huán)境有所改善,但估值仍處于高位。不過,這可能會影響交易的性質(zhì),而不是交易的總體數(shù)量。高盛預(yù)計,由于估值較高,交易將以股權(quán)作為主要考量因素,而非現(xiàn)金。
韋德布什證券公司(Wedbush)科技分析師丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示,隨著特朗普執(zhí)政期間并購交易升溫,他預(yù)計私營科技公司的“估值傲慢癥”將有所緩解。艾夫斯在上周三的一份分析報告中寫道:“隨著特朗普重返白宮,科技領(lǐng)域的并購活動和整體交易活動的浪潮即將到來?!?/p>
但并購交易是一個復(fù)雜的過程,不僅僅受監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)政策立場的影響。因此,不能僅憑這些因素就斷定會催生大量新的并購交易。
BCA Research首席策略師達(dá)瓦爾·喬希(Dhaval Joshi)對《財富》表示:“在我看來,并購活動高度依賴于股市水平,因?yàn)楣墒心軌蛟鰪?qiáng)任何股價較高的公司的購買力,尤其是目前的超高市值行業(yè)領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)。”
值得注意的是,并非所有并購交易都涉及上市公司。在科技行業(yè)尤其如此,初創(chuàng)公司的創(chuàng)始人更傾向于被大型公司收購。在拜登執(zhí)政期間,一些這類交易也引起了監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的注意。2022年7月,美國聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會提起訴訟,要求阻止Meta收購創(chuàng)作虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)健身內(nèi)容的初創(chuàng)公司W(wǎng)ithin,理由是聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會認(rèn)為該公司希望“通過收購來達(dá)到領(lǐng)先地位”,而不是直接參與競爭。
風(fēng)險投資公司SignalFire的首席執(zhí)行官克里斯·法默(Chris Farmer)表示,特朗普政府不會采取這種做法。他說,這將允許“現(xiàn)有企業(yè)收購新興的初創(chuàng)公司競爭對手,從而為一小部分創(chuàng)始人和風(fēng)險投資人帶來價值數(shù)十億美元的退出機(jī)會”。
另一方面,法默承認(rèn),過度放松監(jiān)管也有一定的弊端,這可能會“減少消費(fèi)者的選擇范圍,并將那些未被收購的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)排除在有效競爭之外”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
分析人士預(yù)測,隨著特朗普政府即將就任,并購市場近期的低迷交易態(tài)勢有望得到扭轉(zhuǎn)。
在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)年交易活動減少和交易受阻之后,觀察人士認(rèn)為特朗普的第二個任期將帶來大量新交易機(jī)會。特朗普在競選時提出了對企業(yè)友好的議程,承諾全面放松監(jiān)管。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席美國股票策略師大衛(wèi)·科斯汀(David Kostin)在上周三發(fā)布的一份分析報告中寫道:“在過去四年里,美國聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)和司法部反壟斷局(Department of Justice Antitrust Division)對許多企業(yè)的合并提案提出了質(zhì)疑,但在新一屆政府的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,這種監(jiān)管態(tài)勢可能會趨向?qū)捤?。?/p>
根據(jù)同一份報告,高盛預(yù)計2025年的并購活動將增加20%。在過去幾年中,并購活動大幅減少。高盛預(yù)計,2024年的并購活動將較上年下降15%。
拜登(Joe Biden)政府以企業(yè)合并會損害消費(fèi)者利益為由,對其采取了更為強(qiáng)硬的立場。在聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會主席莉娜·汗(Lina Khan)和司法部反壟斷局助理總檢察長喬納森·坎特(Jonathan Kanter)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)一直在探索新的評估標(biāo)準(zhǔn),以評估是否批準(zhǔn)某些合并案??蔡睾秃共辉傧襁^去那樣只關(guān)注潛在交易是否會導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者價格上漲,而是考慮兩家公司合并對其所在行業(yè)的整體影響。實(shí)質(zhì)上,他們更為細(xì)致地審查了潛在合并對供應(yīng)商和競爭對手的負(fù)面影響。
現(xiàn)在,隨著特朗普即將開始第二個任期,這種審查預(yù)計將會消失——過去兩天的股市動態(tài)反映了這一現(xiàn)實(shí)。
在特朗普擊敗副總統(tǒng)卡瑪拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)贏得大選后的第二天,預(yù)計會進(jìn)行并購交易的幾家公司的股票因市場預(yù)期這些交易可能順利完成而出現(xiàn)上漲。
擁有奢侈品牌蔻馳(Coach)和凱特·絲蓓(Kate Spade)的泰佩思琦(Tapestry Inc)股價在兩天內(nèi)上漲了5.5%,原因是市場預(yù)期該公司與邁克高仕(Michael Kors)的所有者Capri Holdings的合并有望獲得監(jiān)管部門的批準(zhǔn)。Capri股價自上周二收盤以來上漲了10%。在航空板塊中,F(xiàn)rontier和Spirit的股價分別上漲了11%和15%,原因是市場認(rèn)為這兩家公司之前被擱置的合并交易現(xiàn)在有可能獲得批準(zhǔn)。
美國最大的兩家食品雜貨連鎖公司克羅格(Kroger)和艾伯森(Albertsons)的合并交易也似乎更有可能進(jìn)行了。在聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會起訴阻止這兩家食品雜貨連鎖公司合并后,該交易目前已被法庭擱置。自上周二特朗普贏得總統(tǒng)大選的可能性變得明朗后,克羅格和艾伯森的股價均有所上漲。
這些股票的上漲被市場解讀為投資者相信并購活動將順利進(jìn)行的跡象。預(yù)期的政策寬松是并購交易的關(guān)鍵因素之一,因?yàn)檫@會給企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人留下了他們的交易有望最終完成的印象。
科斯汀在報告中寫道:“首席執(zhí)行官信心是影響高管參與并購活動意愿的關(guān)鍵變量?!?/p>
高盛表示,盡管監(jiān)管環(huán)境有所改善,但估值仍處于高位。不過,這可能會影響交易的性質(zhì),而不是交易的總體數(shù)量。高盛預(yù)計,由于估值較高,交易將以股權(quán)作為主要考量因素,而非現(xiàn)金。
韋德布什證券公司(Wedbush)科技分析師丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示,隨著特朗普執(zhí)政期間并購交易升溫,他預(yù)計私營科技公司的“估值傲慢癥”將有所緩解。艾夫斯在上周三的一份分析報告中寫道:“隨著特朗普重返白宮,科技領(lǐng)域的并購活動和整體交易活動的浪潮即將到來?!?/p>
但并購交易是一個復(fù)雜的過程,不僅僅受監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)政策立場的影響。因此,不能僅憑這些因素就斷定會催生大量新的并購交易。
BCA Research首席策略師達(dá)瓦爾·喬希(Dhaval Joshi)對《財富》表示:“在我看來,并購活動高度依賴于股市水平,因?yàn)楣墒心軌蛟鰪?qiáng)任何股價較高的公司的購買力,尤其是目前的超高市值行業(yè)領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)?!?/p>
值得注意的是,并非所有并購交易都涉及上市公司。在科技行業(yè)尤其如此,初創(chuàng)公司的創(chuàng)始人更傾向于被大型公司收購。在拜登執(zhí)政期間,一些這類交易也引起了監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的注意。2022年7月,美國聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會提起訴訟,要求阻止Meta收購創(chuàng)作虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)健身內(nèi)容的初創(chuàng)公司W(wǎng)ithin,理由是聯(lián)邦貿(mào)易委員會認(rèn)為該公司希望“通過收購來達(dá)到領(lǐng)先地位”,而不是直接參與競爭。
風(fēng)險投資公司SignalFire的首席執(zhí)行官克里斯·法默(Chris Farmer)表示,特朗普政府不會采取這種做法。他說,這將允許“現(xiàn)有企業(yè)收購新興的初創(chuàng)公司競爭對手,從而為一小部分創(chuàng)始人和風(fēng)險投資人帶來價值數(shù)十億美元的退出機(jī)會”。
另一方面,法默承認(rèn),過度放松監(jiān)管也有一定的弊端,這可能會“減少消費(fèi)者的選擇范圍,并將那些未被收購的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)排除在有效競爭之外”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:中慧言-王芳
Analysts expect the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump will turn around the recent dealmaking slump in the M&A market.
After several years of reduced activity and blocked deals, watchers believe Trump’s second term in office will lead to a flurry of new deals. Trump campaigned on a business-friendly agenda that promised ample deregulation.
“The regulatory posture of the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice Antitrust Division that during the past four years challenged many proposed business combinations will likely be more relaxed under the incoming administration,” Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin wrote in an analyst note published Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs projects a 20% increase in M&A activity in 2025, according to the same note. Over the last couple of years, M&A activity had fallen significantly. Goldman estimates in 2024 it dropped 15% compared to the year prior.
President Joe Biden’s administration had been much harsher on mergers on the grounds that corporate consolidation would hurt consumers. Under FTC chair Lina Khan and assistant attorney general for the DOJ’s antitrust division Jonathan Kanter, regulators have been testing new parameters to evaluate whether they would approve certain mergers. Rather than look exclusively at whether a prospective deal would raise consumer prices, as was done in the past, Kanter and Khan considered the overall power two merged companies might wield on their industry. In essence, they more closely scrutinized a possible merger’s negative impact on suppliers and competitors as well.
Now, with Trump set to return to office for a second term, that scrutiny is expected to dissipate—a reality that was reflected in the stock market over the last two days.
The day after Trump’s election win over Vice President Kamala Harris, the stocks of several companies expected to pursue M&A deals rose on the expectation they might be completed.
Tapestry Inc, which owns luxury brands Coach and Kate Spade, saw its share price rise 5.5% over two days on the expectation that its merger with Capri Holdings, owner of Michael Kors, would get regulatory approval. Capri stock was up 10% since Tuesday’s close. In the airline sector, Frontier and Spirit both saw their stocks rise 11% and 15%, respectively, on the view that their previously scuttled merger might now be allowed.
The merger of Kroger and Albertsons, the two largest grocery chains in the country, also seems more likely now. That deal is currently tied up in court after the FTC sued to stop the two grocery chains from merging. Both Kroger and Albertsons stocks were up since Tuesday when it became apparent Trump would win the presidency.
The rallies in those stocks were taken as an indication that investors believe M&A activity will indeed go through. An expected lighter touch is a critical factor in M&A because it gives business leaders the impression their deals will indeed close.
“CEO confidence is a key variable affecting executives’ inclination to engage in M&A activity,” Kostin wrote in his note.
That said, even with a more favorable regulatory regime, valuations remain high, according to Goldman, though that would likely affect the nature of the deals themselves rather than their overall number. Goldman expects that because of high valuations, deals will feature share considerations over cash.
Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives said he expected “valuation hubris” to come down among privately held tech firms as M&A dealmaking heats up under Trump. “A tidal wave of tech M&A and overall deal activity could now be on the horizon with Trump in the White House,” Ives wrote in an analyst note Wednesday.
But M&A deals are complex processes that depend on more than just regulators’ policy views. There’s no guarantee those alone will lead to a spate of new deals.
“In my view, M&A activity is highly dependent on the level of the stock market, as this boosts the purchasing power of any corporation with a high stock price, and especially the current mega-cap superstars,” BCA Research chief strategist Dhaval Joshi told Fortune.
Notably, not all M&A deals are between public companies. That is especially true in the tech industry, where startup founders often look to get acquired by bigger players. Under the Biden administration, some of these types of deals also drew the attention of regulators. In July 2022, the FTC sued to stop Meta’s acquisition of the startup Within, which makes virtual-reality fitness content, on the grounds it wanted to “buy its way to the top” rather than compete outright.
The Trump administration wouldn’t take such an approach, according to Chris Farmer, CEO of VC firm SignalFire. It would allow “incumbents to acquire upcoming startup competitors, which could unlock more billion-dollar exits for a limited set of founders and venture capitalists,” he said.
On the other hand, Farmer acknowledged there are certain downsides to too much deregulation, which could “give consumers less choice and box out unacquired startups from viably competing.”