前美國中央情報(bào)局(CIA)局長(zhǎng)、前國防部長(zhǎng)萊昂·帕內(nèi)塔認(rèn)為,當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普的經(jīng)濟(jì)議程,包括減稅和廣泛的放松監(jiān)管等,可能導(dǎo)致已經(jīng)高企的國家債務(wù)進(jìn)一步上升。
帕內(nèi)塔在《財(cái)富》全球論壇上的訪談中表示:“這些措施將帶來相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)。但一個(gè)負(fù)面的重要影響是,美國的借款可能會(huì)飆升。我認(rèn)為,美國的國家債務(wù)可能會(huì)增加7萬億美元。”
帕內(nèi)塔似乎引用了中立預(yù)算監(jiān)督機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)任聯(lián)邦預(yù)算委員會(huì)(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)10月份的一項(xiàng)分析。該分析預(yù)測(cè),如果特朗普的政策成功實(shí)施,美國的國家負(fù)債將增加7.75萬億美元。特朗普競(jìng)選時(shí)主張大幅減稅,并提議對(duì)所有進(jìn)入美國的商品征收全面關(guān)稅。
然而,帕內(nèi)塔表示,特朗普一些非正統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策對(duì)本已強(qiáng)勁的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的確切影響仍不確定。他表示:“美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好,但顯然[特朗普]對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成了真正的沖擊?!?/p>
帕內(nèi)塔不僅是國家安全專家,還是政府預(yù)算方面的專家。在比爾·克林頓執(zhí)政時(shí)期,帕內(nèi)塔曾擔(dān)任管理和預(yù)算辦公室(Office of Management and Budget)主任和白宮幕僚長(zhǎng)。在此之前,帕內(nèi)塔是加利福尼亞州的國會(huì)議員,并擔(dān)任眾議院預(yù)算委員會(huì)(House Budget Committee)主席。
盡管帕內(nèi)塔支持特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)議程的大方向,如放松監(jiān)管和減稅,但他也有保留意見。他特別關(guān)注的是美國將被迫為不斷增加的國家債務(wù)支付利息。根據(jù)國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室3月份的分析,預(yù)計(jì)今年美國國家債務(wù)的利息支付將達(dá)到8,700億美元,超過8,220億美元的年度國防預(yù)算。
帕內(nèi)塔表示,利息支付“將繼續(xù)增加,[這將]對(duì)利率造成壓力。這在很大程度上會(huì)對(duì)全球產(chǎn)生影響,因?yàn)殡S著美元的升值——我認(rèn)為美元會(huì)持續(xù)升值——這將給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來更大的壓力?!?/p>
由于美元是國際貿(mào)易的首選貨幣,美元強(qiáng)勢(shì)地位的變化可能會(huì)在全球范圍內(nèi)產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。隨著美元走強(qiáng),相對(duì)于其他貨幣,用美元借款的還債成本會(huì)增加,并推高全球商品的成本。這可能對(duì)美國有利,但會(huì)給其他國家,特別是新興市場(chǎng)國家,造成經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況緊張。
截至7月,特朗普認(rèn)為美元過于強(qiáng)勢(shì)。他曾對(duì)彭博社表示,美國存在一個(gè)“嚴(yán)重的貨幣問題”。
帕內(nèi)塔指出,特朗普在準(zhǔn)備入主白宮時(shí)面臨的難題是,他的許多政策預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)使美元升值。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
前美國中央情報(bào)局(CIA)局長(zhǎng)、前國防部長(zhǎng)萊昂·帕內(nèi)塔認(rèn)為,當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普的經(jīng)濟(jì)議程,包括減稅和廣泛的放松監(jiān)管等,可能導(dǎo)致已經(jīng)高企的國家債務(wù)進(jìn)一步上升。
帕內(nèi)塔在《財(cái)富》全球論壇上的訪談中表示:“這些措施將帶來相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)。但一個(gè)負(fù)面的重要影響是,美國的借款可能會(huì)飆升。我認(rèn)為,美國的國家債務(wù)可能會(huì)增加7萬億美元?!?/p>
帕內(nèi)塔似乎引用了中立預(yù)算監(jiān)督機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)任聯(lián)邦預(yù)算委員會(huì)(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)10月份的一項(xiàng)分析。該分析預(yù)測(cè),如果特朗普的政策成功實(shí)施,美國的國家負(fù)債將增加7.75萬億美元。特朗普競(jìng)選時(shí)主張大幅減稅,并提議對(duì)所有進(jìn)入美國的商品征收全面關(guān)稅。
然而,帕內(nèi)塔表示,特朗普一些非正統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策對(duì)本已強(qiáng)勁的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的確切影響仍不確定。他表示:“美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好,但顯然[特朗普]對(duì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成了真正的沖擊?!?/p>
帕內(nèi)塔不僅是國家安全專家,還是政府預(yù)算方面的專家。在比爾·克林頓執(zhí)政時(shí)期,帕內(nèi)塔曾擔(dān)任管理和預(yù)算辦公室(Office of Management and Budget)主任和白宮幕僚長(zhǎng)。在此之前,帕內(nèi)塔是加利福尼亞州的國會(huì)議員,并擔(dān)任眾議院預(yù)算委員會(huì)(House Budget Committee)主席。
盡管帕內(nèi)塔支持特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)議程的大方向,如放松監(jiān)管和減稅,但他也有保留意見。他特別關(guān)注的是美國將被迫為不斷增加的國家債務(wù)支付利息。根據(jù)國會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室3月份的分析,預(yù)計(jì)今年美國國家債務(wù)的利息支付將達(dá)到8,700億美元,超過8,220億美元的年度國防預(yù)算。
帕內(nèi)塔表示,利息支付“將繼續(xù)增加,[這將]對(duì)利率造成壓力。這在很大程度上會(huì)對(duì)全球產(chǎn)生影響,因?yàn)殡S著美元的升值——我認(rèn)為美元會(huì)持續(xù)升值——這將給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來更大的壓力?!?/p>
由于美元是國際貿(mào)易的首選貨幣,美元強(qiáng)勢(shì)地位的變化可能會(huì)在全球范圍內(nèi)產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。隨著美元走強(qiáng),相對(duì)于其他貨幣,用美元借款的還債成本會(huì)增加,并推高全球商品的成本。這可能對(duì)美國有利,但會(huì)給其他國家,特別是新興市場(chǎng)國家,造成經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況緊張。
截至7月,特朗普認(rèn)為美元過于強(qiáng)勢(shì)。他曾對(duì)彭博社表示,美國存在一個(gè)“嚴(yán)重的貨幣問題”。
帕內(nèi)塔指出,特朗普在準(zhǔn)備入主白宮時(shí)面臨的難題是,他的許多政策預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)使美元升值。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
President-elect Trump’s economic agenda—cut taxes and embark on a widespread campaign of deregulation—could risk running up the already skyhigh national debt, according to former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta.
“That will inspire a pretty strong economy,” Panetta said during an onstage interview at Fortune’s Global Forum. “The big dark side of this is that it is likely borrowing in the U.S. is going to soar. We’re looking at, I think, the possibility of maybe adding $7 trillion to the national debt.”
Panetta appeared to be referencing projections from an October analysis by the nonpartisan budget watchdog the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget that forecasted a $7.75 trillion increase in the national debt if Trump were to successfully implement his policies. Trump campaigned on sweeping tax cuts and a proposal to levy blanket tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S.
However, the exact impact of some of Trump’s unorthodox economic policies on an otherwise strong economy remains uncertain, according to Panetta. “The economy is good, but obviously [Trump] represents a real jolt to the economy in America,” he said.
In addition to being an expert on national security Panetta is also a specialist in governmental budgeting. During Bill Clinton’s administration, Panetta served as Director of the Office of Management and Budget and White House chief of staff. Previously, Panetta was a Congressman from California and chaired the House Budget Committee.
Despite being supportive of the broad strokes of Trump’s economic agenda, namely deregulation and cutting taxes, Panetta was not without reservations. Of particular concern were the interest payments the U.S. would be forced to make on its rising national debt. Interest payments on the national debt, expected to reach $870 billion this year, now exceed the $822 billion annual defense budget, according to a March analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.
Interest payments are “going to continue to increase, [which will] create pressure on interest rates,” Panetta said. “That to a large extent is going to impact on the global side, because with the value of the dollar being high—I think it’s going to continue to grow—it’s going to create more pressure in terms of the global economy.”
Because the U.S. dollar is the currency of choice for much of international trade, changes to its strength can have ripple effects across the world. When the dollar becomes stronger, it makes repaying debts on money borrowed in dollars more expensive and pushes up costs of global goods relative to other currencies. This may be good for the U.S. but can create tight economic conditions for other countries, particularly those in emerging markets.
As of July, Trump’s view was that the U.S. dollar was too strong. He told Bloomberg the U.S. had a “big currency problem.”
The conundrum Trump faces, as he prepares to enter the White House, is that many of his policies are expected to strengthen the dollar, as Panetta pointed out.