一位著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示,因?yàn)槿藗冾A(yù)測(cè)共和黨在大選中大獲全勝,讓人們看到了減稅和放松監(jiān)管的希望,這使得美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)對(duì)世界其他地區(qū)更有吸引力,華爾街情緒一直高漲。
上周五,安聯(lián)(Allianz)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問穆罕默德·埃里安在接受彭博電視臺(tái)采訪時(shí),被問及投資者是否可以預(yù)期,伴隨著更嚴(yán)重的通脹將會(huì)出現(xiàn)正增長(zhǎng)沖擊。
他回應(yīng)稱:“未來前進(jìn)的方向很明確:更多的增長(zhǎng),略高的通脹,更高的公共部門借款需求,以及對(duì)外資巨大的吸引力,將使大量外國(guó)資本涌入美國(guó)?!?/p>
埃里安補(bǔ)充說,隨著新一屆特朗普政府的政策變得更加明確——以及執(zhí)行這些政策的人選確定,這些趨勢(shì)的規(guī)模將變得更加明顯。
就在總統(tǒng)選舉后的幾天,關(guān)于內(nèi)閣的潛在人選這個(gè)話題掀起了熱烈討論。上周五,《金融時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道稱,特朗普首個(gè)任期內(nèi)擔(dān)任美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表的羅伯特·萊特希澤被要求再次擔(dān)任該職位。
與此同時(shí),《金融時(shí)報(bào)》還爆料稱,財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)的職位可能由一名金融家擔(dān)任,對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理斯科特·貝森特和約翰·保爾森被視為可能的人選。
埃里安表示,與此同時(shí),世界其他國(guó)家在應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)和通脹加劇的時(shí)期可能面臨更多困難,這會(huì)增加美國(guó)的相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)。
他解釋稱:“這是美國(guó)增加全球體系主導(dǎo)地位的一個(gè)時(shí)期,短期內(nèi)既有積極原因也有消極原因。世界其他國(guó)家根本無法建立足夠的管道繞過美國(guó)。他們正在努力并且一直在這樣做,但這些管道的規(guī)模根本無法與美國(guó)的規(guī)模相提并論?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,盡管人們擔(dān)心特朗普的減稅、加征關(guān)稅和打擊移民等政策將加劇通脹并惡化赤字,但在選舉后迅速大幅上漲的債券收益率已經(jīng)回落。
埃里安認(rèn)為,這是因?yàn)橄鄬?duì)于其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的債券,美國(guó)債券變得更具吸引力。
對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債的持續(xù)需求將幫助聯(lián)邦政府為預(yù)計(jì)在特朗普第二個(gè)總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)可能爆發(fā)的債務(wù)危機(jī)提供融資。
在選舉前,中立的負(fù)責(zé)任聯(lián)邦預(yù)算委員會(huì)(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)估計(jì),特朗普的政策可能使債務(wù)增加7.5萬億美元,甚至可能高達(dá)15.2萬億美元。
但是,如果投資者(尤其是“債券衛(wèi)士”)對(duì)美國(guó)財(cái)政部拍賣的巨額債務(wù)不滿,他們可能會(huì)推高債券收益率,并提高抵押貸款利率等關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的借貸成本。
然而,貝萊德(BlackRock)董事長(zhǎng)兼CEO拉里·芬克在上周二的《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》專欄文章中表示,更快的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將更有助于管理美國(guó)的債務(wù)。
他寫道:“如果未來五年GDP以年均3%的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng),美國(guó)的債務(wù)與GDP之比將保持在一個(gè)較高但合理的水平?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
一位著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示,因?yàn)槿藗冾A(yù)測(cè)共和黨在大選中大獲全勝,讓人們看到了減稅和放松監(jiān)管的希望,這使得美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)對(duì)世界其他地區(qū)更有吸引力,華爾街情緒一直高漲。
上周五,安聯(lián)(Allianz)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問穆罕默德·埃里安在接受彭博電視臺(tái)采訪時(shí),被問及投資者是否可以預(yù)期,伴隨著更嚴(yán)重的通脹將會(huì)出現(xiàn)正增長(zhǎng)沖擊。
他回應(yīng)稱:“未來前進(jìn)的方向很明確:更多的增長(zhǎng),略高的通脹,更高的公共部門借款需求,以及對(duì)外資巨大的吸引力,將使大量外國(guó)資本涌入美國(guó)?!?/p>
埃里安補(bǔ)充說,隨著新一屆特朗普政府的政策變得更加明確——以及執(zhí)行這些政策的人選確定,這些趨勢(shì)的規(guī)模將變得更加明顯。
就在總統(tǒng)選舉后的幾天,關(guān)于內(nèi)閣的潛在人選這個(gè)話題掀起了熱烈討論。上周五,《金融時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道稱,特朗普首個(gè)任期內(nèi)擔(dān)任美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表的羅伯特·萊特希澤被要求再次擔(dān)任該職位。
與此同時(shí),《金融時(shí)報(bào)》還爆料稱,財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)的職位可能由一名金融家擔(dān)任,對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理斯科特·貝森特和約翰·保爾森被視為可能的人選。
埃里安表示,與此同時(shí),世界其他國(guó)家在應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)和通脹加劇的時(shí)期可能面臨更多困難,這會(huì)增加美國(guó)的相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)。
他解釋稱:“這是美國(guó)增加全球體系主導(dǎo)地位的一個(gè)時(shí)期,短期內(nèi)既有積極原因也有消極原因。世界其他國(guó)家根本無法建立足夠的管道繞過美國(guó)。他們正在努力并且一直在這樣做,但這些管道的規(guī)模根本無法與美國(guó)的規(guī)模相提并論?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,盡管人們擔(dān)心特朗普的減稅、加征關(guān)稅和打擊移民等政策將加劇通脹并惡化赤字,但在選舉后迅速大幅上漲的債券收益率已經(jīng)回落。
埃里安認(rèn)為,這是因?yàn)橄鄬?duì)于其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的債券,美國(guó)債券變得更具吸引力。
對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債的持續(xù)需求將幫助聯(lián)邦政府為預(yù)計(jì)在特朗普第二個(gè)總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)可能爆發(fā)的債務(wù)危機(jī)提供融資。
在選舉前,中立的負(fù)責(zé)任聯(lián)邦預(yù)算委員會(huì)(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)估計(jì),特朗普的政策可能使債務(wù)增加7.5萬億美元,甚至可能高達(dá)15.2萬億美元。
但是,如果投資者(尤其是“債券衛(wèi)士”)對(duì)美國(guó)財(cái)政部拍賣的巨額債務(wù)不滿,他們可能會(huì)推高債券收益率,并提高抵押貸款利率等關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的借貸成本。
然而,貝萊德(BlackRock)董事長(zhǎng)兼CEO拉里·芬克在上周二的《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》專欄文章中表示,更快的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將更有助于管理美國(guó)的債務(wù)。
他寫道:“如果未來五年GDP以年均3%的實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng),美國(guó)的債務(wù)與GDP之比將保持在一個(gè)較高但合理的水平。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday.
Wall Street has been flying high as an expected Republican sweep in the election drives hopes for lower taxes and deregulation, and that makes U.S. financial markets more attractive to the rest of the world, a top economist said.
In an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday, Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian was asked if investors should expect a positive growth shock that’s accompanied by more inflation.
“The direction of travel is clear: More growth, slightly higher inflation, a higher public sector borrowing requirement, and a huge sucking sound where a lot of foreign capital will end up in the U.S.,” he replied.
The magnitudes of those trends will become more apparent when policies from the incoming Trump administration become clearer—and when the people who will carry them out become known, El-Erian added.
Just days after the presidential election, talk of potential Cabinet appointments is already ramping up. On Friday, the Financial Times reported that Robert Lighthizer, who was U.S. Trade Representative during Trump’s first term, was asked to fill the post again.
Meanwhile, the job of Treasury secretary will likely be offered to a financier, the FT added, with hedge fund managers Scott Bessent and John Paulson seen as possibilities.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world may have more trouble coping with a period of faster growth and hotter inflation, adding to America’s relative edge, El-Erian said.
“This is a period in which U.S. dominance of the global system is going to increase, both for positive reasons and for negative reasons in the short term,” he explained. “The rest of the world simply cannot build enough pipes around the U.S. They’re trying and they’ve been doing it, but these pipes are very small compared to the size of the U.S.”
Indeed, despite fears that Trump’s tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration crackdown will be inflationary and worsen deficits, bonds yields have come back down after soaring in the immediate aftermath of the election.
El-Erian argued that’s because U.S. bonds have become more attractive relative to those from other advanced economies.
Continued demand for Treasuries would help the federal government finance what’s expected to be an explosion of debt under another Trump presidency.
Ahead of the election, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that his policies could add $7.5 trillion to the debt and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion.
But if investors, especially “bond vigilantes,” balk at the enormous volumes of debt the Treasury Department auctions, they could send yields higher and raise borrowing costs across key segments of the economy, like mortgage rates.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Tuesday, however, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said faster economic growth would help make U.S. debt more manageable.
“If GDP rises at an average of 3% in real terms over the next five years, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio would stay roughly stable at a high, but reasonable, level,” he wrote.