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雜志訂閱

Booking首席執(zhí)行官:廉價(jià)航班前景難料,“就像天氣預(yù)報(bào)一樣”

KRISTIN STOLLER
2024-12-04

福格爾詳細(xì)介紹了對(duì)旅行者來(lái)說(shuō)生成式人工智能崛起意味著什么,他如何與愛(ài)彼迎斗爭(zhēng),以及最佳旅行建議。

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Booking首席執(zhí)行官格倫·福格爾。圖片來(lái)源:COURTESY OF BOOKING HOLDINGS

與出生于Z世代的兒子意見(jiàn)不一,格倫·福格爾堅(jiān)持提前幾個(gè)小時(shí)出發(fā)去機(jī)場(chǎng),這樣才不會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)航班。這是Booking Holdings首席執(zhí)行官堅(jiān)持的眾多信條之一。

福格爾掌管著這家旅游公司旗下各大品牌,包括 Priceline、Booking.com、Kayak、Agoda和OpenTable等。Booking Holdings市值1720億美元,去年收入超過(guò)210億美元(同比增長(zhǎng) 25%)。目前公司在《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)中排名第190位,增速排名第七,也是全球最受贊賞公司之一。

接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),福格爾詳細(xì)介紹了對(duì)旅行者來(lái)說(shuō)生成式人工智能(Gen-AI)崛起意味著什么,他如何與愛(ài)彼迎(Airbnb)斗爭(zhēng),以及最佳旅行建議。本次訪談是對(duì)話《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)首席執(zhí)行官系列的第一篇。

The following has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.為表述清晰,以下內(nèi)容略有刪減和編輯。

隨著美國(guó)廉航精神航空(Spirit Airlines)申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn),其他航空公司將重點(diǎn)放在高端客戶(hù)身上,廉價(jià)旅行還能生存嗎?廉航會(huì)消失嗎?

機(jī)票價(jià)格和其他東西一樣,本質(zhì)上都是供求關(guān)系。這就是其運(yùn)作方式。需求旺盛而供應(yīng)不足時(shí),價(jià)格就會(huì)上漲。精神航空并沒(méi)有消失,根據(jù)美國(guó)破產(chǎn)法第11章申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)后目前運(yùn)營(yíng)完全正常。唯一的變化是股東似乎受到了一些打擊,我不知道銀行將如何處理債務(wù)。這就是破產(chǎn)法庭存在的原因,他們專(zhuān)門(mén)解決這些問(wèn)題。

對(duì)機(jī)票價(jià)格而言,最重要的是供應(yīng)會(huì)不會(huì)減少?精神航空與捷藍(lán)航空(JetBlue)合并被否一事很有趣。很多聰明人看法不一。我自己沒(méi)什么想法,但肯定有些人認(rèn)為,如果讓兩家公司合并對(duì)行業(yè)更好。也有人表示不讓兩家公司合并是好事,否則會(huì)減少供應(yīng)降低競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。顯然,最終結(jié)果顯示人們不希望其合并,認(rèn)為合并會(huì)減少供應(yīng),但到目前為止并未發(fā)生這種情況。

所以回歸基本問(wèn)題:廉價(jià)機(jī)票是否會(huì)消失。這有點(diǎn)像預(yù)測(cè)天氣。拭目以待吧。

我這輩子都沒(méi)用過(guò)旅行社。我認(rèn)為同齡大多數(shù)人(千禧一代)都沒(méi)用過(guò)。但有了人工智能,旅行社似乎有機(jī)會(huì)以虛擬方式回歸。具體如何實(shí)現(xiàn)?人工智能如何幫助人類(lèi)解決未來(lái)的旅行問(wèn)題?

只要享受過(guò)人工旅行社服務(wù)的人,其實(shí)都會(huì)記得那種非常好的體驗(yàn),因?yàn)槟芨私庾约旱娜私徽?。?duì)方了解你的喜好,也知道經(jīng)濟(jì)能力。工作人員會(huì)明確說(shuō)明哪些適合家庭活動(dòng),哪些不適合,然后提供一些選擇。最終旅行社會(huì)提出方案并給出價(jià)格,付錢(qián)就好。

如果出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,可以打電話給旅行社,問(wèn)題總會(huì)神奇般解決,對(duì)吧?我們想找回過(guò)去的體驗(yàn),而且要改進(jìn)。為什么需要改進(jìn)?因?yàn)椋m然旅行社對(duì)客戶(hù)有所了解,但掌握客戶(hù)之前所有活動(dòng),對(duì)客戶(hù)了解最深的其實(shí)是在線數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。利用計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù),經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去20年的數(shù)字革命,服務(wù)水平可以大為提高。現(xiàn)在,問(wèn)題發(fā)生之前就應(yīng)該能預(yù)見(jiàn)到,并提前調(diào)整加以避免。

以前到達(dá)目的地時(shí),你不會(huì)跟旅行社討論日常行程。但有了移動(dòng)技術(shù),相當(dāng)于口袋或錢(qián)包里就有個(gè)旅行社,可以輕松獲知,“現(xiàn)在可以做這幾件事?!苯Y(jié)合技術(shù),引入人工智能之后,還能口頭交流(我們剛剛在Priceline跟OpenAI合作實(shí)現(xiàn)了語(yǔ)音操作交流)。這種體驗(yàn)就像跟人交談一樣,體驗(yàn)會(huì)更好。

能舉個(gè)例子嗎?

如果你去阿姆斯特丹玩,然后想著“我想坐船游覽運(yùn)河”,但預(yù)定的前提是你得了解天氣狀況。畢竟晴天和陰天下雨天出行體驗(yàn)完全不一樣。利用現(xiàn)在的技術(shù)能力,就可以確保客戶(hù)的行程保持一定靈活度,交給在線平臺(tái)安排。由此最大限度提高旅行體驗(yàn)。

最好的一點(diǎn)在于,這不僅僅是旅行機(jī)構(gòu)跟客戶(hù)之間合作,合作伙伴、供應(yīng)商也加入其中。合作伙伴想要增量需求,想要獲取更多客戶(hù)。達(dá)成合作之后,就能爭(zhēng)取特別優(yōu)惠的價(jià)格。假設(shè)(一位游客)到紐約玩,發(fā)現(xiàn)帝國(guó)大廈外面排著長(zhǎng)隊(duì)。我們可以安排特別通道讓客戶(hù)無(wú)需排隊(duì),或者提供更低優(yōu)惠等等。這些進(jìn)步未來(lái)人們都會(huì)喜歡,換句話說(shuō)技術(shù)讓一切變得更好,也能提供更多價(jià)值。

人工智能在未來(lái)可擔(dān)任隨身導(dǎo)游。圖片來(lái)源:GETTY IMAGES

目前,很多銀行和音樂(lè)會(huì)票務(wù)網(wǎng)站,例如Ticketmaster,也可以預(yù)定酒店和其他旅程。這些非旅游公司是否給Booking帶來(lái)了壓力?

旅游一直都是一個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)極其激烈的行業(yè),向來(lái)都是如此。各大公司都一直在嘗試拓展自己的收入來(lái)源。

例如,各大銀行顯然將越來(lái)越多的精力放在了提供旅游服務(wù)方面。因此人們會(huì)看到,摩根大通(JPMorgan)是這樣做的,美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)亦是如此,而且我們?cè)谂c其他公司競(jìng)爭(zhēng)時(shí)會(huì)與這些銀行合作。這種情形是多贏的,因此我并不認(rèn)為這是一種壓力,而是將其看作一種機(jī)會(huì),它可以確保我們接觸到那些愿意通過(guò)這些網(wǎng)站預(yù)定而不是直接上Booking官網(wǎng)的客戶(hù)。既然客戶(hù)做出了這種選擇,因此我寧愿與銀行采取收益分成的模式,而不是放棄這部分客戶(hù)帶來(lái)的收入。

不過(guò),你還是希望人們登錄Booking官網(wǎng)。

當(dāng)然,就像達(dá)美航空(Delta Air Lines)更希望人們直接上公司官網(wǎng)預(yù)定而不是上我們的網(wǎng)站預(yù)定一樣。沒(méi)有人愿意在營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面投入費(fèi)用。大家都不愿意,我們也是如此。我們每年在營(yíng)銷(xiāo)領(lǐng)域的投入達(dá)到了數(shù)十億美元。我真的希望大家能直接登錄Booking官網(wǎng)。不幸的是,我們無(wú)法讓所有人直接來(lái)官網(wǎng),所以才花錢(qián)做營(yíng)銷(xiāo)。

說(shuō)到營(yíng)收,據(jù)我了解,你看到替代式住宿領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了巨大的增長(zhǎng)。關(guān)于這一點(diǎn),能稍微展開(kāi)講講嗎?還有Booking在這一方面與愛(ài)彼迎有什么區(qū)別?

我們的增速更快。上個(gè)季度的[酒店間夜量]增速達(dá)到了14%,愛(ài)彼迎為8%。因此,與愛(ài)彼迎相比,這個(gè)增速對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)還算不錯(cuò)。沒(méi)有捷徑可走,其實(shí)就是做好服務(wù),不斷改善產(chǎn)品。

目前我們確實(shí)有些許優(yōu)勢(shì)。我們的網(wǎng)站同時(shí)涵蓋酒店和民宿。我們認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)很大的優(yōu)勢(shì),因?yàn)槿藗冊(cè)诓煌臅r(shí)期有不同的需求,不過(guò)客戶(hù)只有在完全了解過(guò)后才能體會(huì)到。

我依然覺(jué)得公司產(chǎn)品存在需要大幅改善的領(lǐng)域,而且我們還需要加大某些空白領(lǐng)域的產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)。例如,如果客戶(hù)現(xiàn)在要求:“我想在7月份在東漢普頓找個(gè)房子住一周的時(shí)間,最好是離沙灘一公里以?xún)?nèi)。” Booking能夠提供的選項(xiàng)十分有限,這些領(lǐng)域便是我們需要加強(qiáng)的地方。

不過(guò),我認(rèn)為這對(duì)于公司來(lái)說(shuō)是件好事。因?yàn)楫?dāng)我們?cè)谔钛a(bǔ)這些公司產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)不足的領(lǐng)域時(shí)——我能夠想到公司在美國(guó)很多地方都存在產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)短缺問(wèn)題,一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)之后,這些產(chǎn)品會(huì)讓公司得到極大的提升,公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力也會(huì)更上一個(gè)臺(tái)階。

幾周前,Booking宣布將實(shí)施重組計(jì)劃。可以談?wù)勗撚?jì)劃會(huì)對(duì)公司和雇員帶來(lái)什么影響嗎?

我們一直在努力確保自身能夠著眼于公司的未來(lái),能夠正確地配置資源,而且始終以長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)為目標(biāo)。

當(dāng)人們看到公司重組的信息之后,他們會(huì)認(rèn)為“公司在走下坡路?!睂?shí)際上,不妨看看公司的幾個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)。例如,我們的房間庫(kù)存目前,也就是此時(shí)此刻,創(chuàng)下了新的歷史記錄。去年,我們拿下了1500多億筆旅游訂單。不妨看看共識(shí)分析報(bào)告——這可不是我說(shuō)的,公司今年的業(yè)績(jī)將大幅超過(guò)1600億美元。

人們有時(shí)候會(huì)拋出另一個(gè)觀點(diǎn):“哦,他們這么做是想提升利潤(rùn)?!边@種說(shuō)法是不正確的。世界的變化非常非常之快,而且非常劇烈。生成式人工智能這個(gè)詞是不是已經(jīng)充斥各大媒體了?那么,公司就得在這一方面投入資源,就得對(duì)現(xiàn)有的資源進(jìn)行再分配,并確保自己在這一領(lǐng)域有所行動(dòng)。

變革并非易事,尤其是重組會(huì)對(duì)生活帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響的時(shí)候。這是一件令人悲傷的事情,也很不幸,也很糟糕。所有開(kāi)展這項(xiàng)舉措的公司都得確保自己能夠公允行事,尊重員工,并支付合適的賠償,讓員工能夠繼續(xù)生活并找份新的工作。如果做不到這一點(diǎn),說(shuō)明公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層很差勁。

那些沒(méi)有變革的公司,那些本該變革而不愿變革的公司,看看它們都是什么下場(chǎng)。問(wèn)個(gè)問(wèn)題,你有諾基亞手機(jī)嗎?諾基亞的手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)還存在嗎?你買(mǎi)過(guò)黑莓手機(jī)嗎?現(xiàn)在誰(shuí)還用?以前從Blockbuster那租過(guò)VCD嗎?現(xiàn)在還有嗎?

所有這些公司曾幾何時(shí)都是其市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)者。它們?cè)?jīng)都是行業(yè)的泰斗和翹楚。它們?cè)趶?qiáng)大的時(shí)候并不愿實(shí)施合理的變革,以獲得更大的發(fā)展。

講講你最推薦的旅游竅門(mén)

我從不帶托運(yùn)行李,一直都沒(méi)有過(guò)。

為什么?

原因很簡(jiǎn)單。首先,你不必在傳送帶那等行李。其次,永遠(yuǎn)都不會(huì)丟行李。再者,你實(shí)際上并不需要帶那么多東西。不知道你注意到?jīng)]有,無(wú)論你的行李箱有多大,它始終都是滿(mǎn)的。還有,每次出行,人們實(shí)際上穿不完自己攜帶的衣物。

一直都是這樣。

就是嘛???,你需要的并沒(méi)有你想的那么多。

你覺(jué)得在你的職業(yè)生涯中有沒(méi)有一個(gè)決定性的時(shí)刻,讓你走上了接任Booking首席執(zhí)行官的道路?

如果不是上任被炒魷魚(yú),我也當(dāng)不了首席執(zhí)行官。這一點(diǎn)倒是決定性的,但我與這件事毫無(wú)關(guān)聯(lián)。

我確實(shí)認(rèn)為,生活的很大一部分都是由你無(wú)法掌控的事情構(gòu)成的。有意思的是,當(dāng)我與某些人交談或者你也會(huì)聽(tīng)到人們會(huì)說(shuō):“對(duì)對(duì),當(dāng)然有一些運(yùn)氣成分,但很大一部分都是我自己的功勞?!睂?duì),你確實(shí)掌控著大量的部門(mén),并一邊努力證明自己,一邊為機(jī)會(huì)做好準(zhǔn)備。不過(guò),生活的很大一部分都是由你完全無(wú)法掌控的事情決定的。

我覺(jué)得,人們?cè)谶^(guò)得不順意的時(shí)候不妨思考下這個(gè)問(wèn)題,并將這種局面理解為只不過(guò)是“這件事就這樣發(fā)生了”。這也是為什么這個(gè)人能去那個(gè)崗位,而你在這里。我覺(jué)得人們還不夠謙遜。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

與出生于Z世代的兒子意見(jiàn)不一,格倫·福格爾堅(jiān)持提前幾個(gè)小時(shí)出發(fā)去機(jī)場(chǎng),這樣才不會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)航班。這是Booking Holdings首席執(zhí)行官堅(jiān)持的眾多信條之一。

福格爾掌管著這家旅游公司旗下各大品牌,包括 Priceline、Booking.com、Kayak、Agoda和OpenTable等。Booking Holdings市值1720億美元,去年收入超過(guò)210億美元(同比增長(zhǎng) 25%)。目前公司在《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)中排名第190位,增速排名第七,也是全球最受贊賞公司之一。

接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),福格爾詳細(xì)介紹了對(duì)旅行者來(lái)說(shuō)生成式人工智能(Gen-AI)崛起意味著什么,他如何與愛(ài)彼迎(Airbnb)斗爭(zhēng),以及最佳旅行建議。本次訪談是對(duì)話《財(cái)富》美國(guó)500強(qiáng)首席執(zhí)行官系列的第一篇。

The following has been condensed and lightly edited for clarity.為表述清晰,以下內(nèi)容略有刪減和編輯。

隨著美國(guó)廉航精神航空(Spirit Airlines)申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn),其他航空公司將重點(diǎn)放在高端客戶(hù)身上,廉價(jià)旅行還能生存嗎?廉航會(huì)消失嗎?

機(jī)票價(jià)格和其他東西一樣,本質(zhì)上都是供求關(guān)系。這就是其運(yùn)作方式。需求旺盛而供應(yīng)不足時(shí),價(jià)格就會(huì)上漲。精神航空并沒(méi)有消失,根據(jù)美國(guó)破產(chǎn)法第11章申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)后目前運(yùn)營(yíng)完全正常。唯一的變化是股東似乎受到了一些打擊,我不知道銀行將如何處理債務(wù)。這就是破產(chǎn)法庭存在的原因,他們專(zhuān)門(mén)解決這些問(wèn)題。

對(duì)機(jī)票價(jià)格而言,最重要的是供應(yīng)會(huì)不會(huì)減少?精神航空與捷藍(lán)航空(JetBlue)合并被否一事很有趣。很多聰明人看法不一。我自己沒(méi)什么想法,但肯定有些人認(rèn)為,如果讓兩家公司合并對(duì)行業(yè)更好。也有人表示不讓兩家公司合并是好事,否則會(huì)減少供應(yīng)降低競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。顯然,最終結(jié)果顯示人們不希望其合并,認(rèn)為合并會(huì)減少供應(yīng),但到目前為止并未發(fā)生這種情況。

所以回歸基本問(wèn)題:廉價(jià)機(jī)票是否會(huì)消失。這有點(diǎn)像預(yù)測(cè)天氣。拭目以待吧。

我這輩子都沒(méi)用過(guò)旅行社。我認(rèn)為同齡大多數(shù)人(千禧一代)都沒(méi)用過(guò)。但有了人工智能,旅行社似乎有機(jī)會(huì)以虛擬方式回歸。具體如何實(shí)現(xiàn)?人工智能如何幫助人類(lèi)解決未來(lái)的旅行問(wèn)題?

只要享受過(guò)人工旅行社服務(wù)的人,其實(shí)都會(huì)記得那種非常好的體驗(yàn),因?yàn)槟芨私庾约旱娜私徽劇?duì)方了解你的喜好,也知道經(jīng)濟(jì)能力。工作人員會(huì)明確說(shuō)明哪些適合家庭活動(dòng),哪些不適合,然后提供一些選擇。最終旅行社會(huì)提出方案并給出價(jià)格,付錢(qián)就好。

如果出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,可以打電話給旅行社,問(wèn)題總會(huì)神奇般解決,對(duì)吧?我們想找回過(guò)去的體驗(yàn),而且要改進(jìn)。為什么需要改進(jìn)?因?yàn)?,雖然旅行社對(duì)客戶(hù)有所了解,但掌握客戶(hù)之前所有活動(dòng),對(duì)客戶(hù)了解最深的其實(shí)是在線數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。利用計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù),經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去20年的數(shù)字革命,服務(wù)水平可以大為提高。現(xiàn)在,問(wèn)題發(fā)生之前就應(yīng)該能預(yù)見(jiàn)到,并提前調(diào)整加以避免。

以前到達(dá)目的地時(shí),你不會(huì)跟旅行社討論日常行程。但有了移動(dòng)技術(shù),相當(dāng)于口袋或錢(qián)包里就有個(gè)旅行社,可以輕松獲知,“現(xiàn)在可以做這幾件事。”結(jié)合技術(shù),引入人工智能之后,還能口頭交流(我們剛剛在Priceline跟OpenAI合作實(shí)現(xiàn)了語(yǔ)音操作交流)。這種體驗(yàn)就像跟人交談一樣,體驗(yàn)會(huì)更好。

能舉個(gè)例子嗎?

如果你去阿姆斯特丹玩,然后想著“我想坐船游覽運(yùn)河”,但預(yù)定的前提是你得了解天氣狀況。畢竟晴天和陰天下雨天出行體驗(yàn)完全不一樣。利用現(xiàn)在的技術(shù)能力,就可以確??蛻?hù)的行程保持一定靈活度,交給在線平臺(tái)安排。由此最大限度提高旅行體驗(yàn)。

最好的一點(diǎn)在于,這不僅僅是旅行機(jī)構(gòu)跟客戶(hù)之間合作,合作伙伴、供應(yīng)商也加入其中。合作伙伴想要增量需求,想要獲取更多客戶(hù)。達(dá)成合作之后,就能爭(zhēng)取特別優(yōu)惠的價(jià)格。假設(shè)(一位游客)到紐約玩,發(fā)現(xiàn)帝國(guó)大廈外面排著長(zhǎng)隊(duì)。我們可以安排特別通道讓客戶(hù)無(wú)需排隊(duì),或者提供更低優(yōu)惠等等。這些進(jìn)步未來(lái)人們都會(huì)喜歡,換句話說(shuō)技術(shù)讓一切變得更好,也能提供更多價(jià)值。

目前,很多銀行和音樂(lè)會(huì)票務(wù)網(wǎng)站,例如Ticketmaster,也可以預(yù)定酒店和其他旅程。這些非旅游公司是否給Booking帶來(lái)了壓力?

旅游一直都是一個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)極其激烈的行業(yè),向來(lái)都是如此。各大公司都一直在嘗試拓展自己的收入來(lái)源。

例如,各大銀行顯然將越來(lái)越多的精力放在了提供旅游服務(wù)方面。因此人們會(huì)看到,摩根大通(JPMorgan)是這樣做的,美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)亦是如此,而且我們?cè)谂c其他公司競(jìng)爭(zhēng)時(shí)會(huì)與這些銀行合作。這種情形是多贏的,因此我并不認(rèn)為這是一種壓力,而是將其看作一種機(jī)會(huì),它可以確保我們接觸到那些愿意通過(guò)這些網(wǎng)站預(yù)定而不是直接上Booking官網(wǎng)的客戶(hù)。既然客戶(hù)做出了這種選擇,因此我寧愿與銀行采取收益分成的模式,而不是放棄這部分客戶(hù)帶來(lái)的收入。

不過(guò),你還是希望人們登錄Booking官網(wǎng)。

當(dāng)然,就像達(dá)美航空(Delta Air Lines)更希望人們直接上公司官網(wǎng)預(yù)定而不是上我們的網(wǎng)站預(yù)定一樣。沒(méi)有人愿意在營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面投入費(fèi)用。大家都不愿意,我們也是如此。我們每年在營(yíng)銷(xiāo)領(lǐng)域的投入達(dá)到了數(shù)十億美元。我真的希望大家能直接登錄Booking官網(wǎng)。不幸的是,我們無(wú)法讓所有人直接來(lái)官網(wǎng),所以才花錢(qián)做營(yíng)銷(xiāo)。

說(shuō)到營(yíng)收,據(jù)我了解,你看到替代式住宿領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了巨大的增長(zhǎng)。關(guān)于這一點(diǎn),能稍微展開(kāi)講講嗎?還有Booking在這一方面與愛(ài)彼迎有什么區(qū)別?

我們的增速更快。上個(gè)季度的[酒店間夜量]增速達(dá)到了14%,愛(ài)彼迎為8%。因此,與愛(ài)彼迎相比,這個(gè)增速對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)還算不錯(cuò)。沒(méi)有捷徑可走,其實(shí)就是做好服務(wù),不斷改善產(chǎn)品。

目前我們確實(shí)有些許優(yōu)勢(shì)。我們的網(wǎng)站同時(shí)涵蓋酒店和民宿。我們認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)很大的優(yōu)勢(shì),因?yàn)槿藗冊(cè)诓煌臅r(shí)期有不同的需求,不過(guò)客戶(hù)只有在完全了解過(guò)后才能體會(huì)到。

我依然覺(jué)得公司產(chǎn)品存在需要大幅改善的領(lǐng)域,而且我們還需要加大某些空白領(lǐng)域的產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)。例如,如果客戶(hù)現(xiàn)在要求:“我想在7月份在東漢普頓找個(gè)房子住一周的時(shí)間,最好是離沙灘一公里以?xún)?nèi)?!?Booking能夠提供的選項(xiàng)十分有限,這些領(lǐng)域便是我們需要加強(qiáng)的地方。

不過(guò),我認(rèn)為這對(duì)于公司來(lái)說(shuō)是件好事。因?yàn)楫?dāng)我們?cè)谔钛a(bǔ)這些公司產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)不足的領(lǐng)域時(shí)——我能夠想到公司在美國(guó)很多地方都存在產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)短缺問(wèn)題,一旦實(shí)現(xiàn)之后,這些產(chǎn)品會(huì)讓公司得到極大的提升,公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力也會(huì)更上一個(gè)臺(tái)階。

幾周前,Booking宣布將實(shí)施重組計(jì)劃??梢哉?wù)勗撚?jì)劃會(huì)對(duì)公司和雇員帶來(lái)什么影響嗎?

我們一直在努力確保自身能夠著眼于公司的未來(lái),能夠正確地配置資源,而且始終以長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)為目標(biāo)。

當(dāng)人們看到公司重組的信息之后,他們會(huì)認(rèn)為“公司在走下坡路?!睂?shí)際上,不妨看看公司的幾個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)。例如,我們的房間庫(kù)存目前,也就是此時(shí)此刻,創(chuàng)下了新的歷史記錄。去年,我們拿下了1500多億筆旅游訂單。不妨看看共識(shí)分析報(bào)告——這可不是我說(shuō)的,公司今年的業(yè)績(jī)將大幅超過(guò)1600億美元。

人們有時(shí)候會(huì)拋出另一個(gè)觀點(diǎn):“哦,他們這么做是想提升利潤(rùn)?!边@種說(shuō)法是不正確的。世界的變化非常非常之快,而且非常劇烈。生成式人工智能這個(gè)詞是不是已經(jīng)充斥各大媒體了?那么,公司就得在這一方面投入資源,就得對(duì)現(xiàn)有的資源進(jìn)行再分配,并確保自己在這一領(lǐng)域有所行動(dòng)。

變革并非易事,尤其是重組會(huì)對(duì)生活帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響的時(shí)候。這是一件令人悲傷的事情,也很不幸,也很糟糕。所有開(kāi)展這項(xiàng)舉措的公司都得確保自己能夠公允行事,尊重員工,并支付合適的賠償,讓員工能夠繼續(xù)生活并找份新的工作。如果做不到這一點(diǎn),說(shuō)明公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層很差勁。

那些沒(méi)有變革的公司,那些本該變革而不愿變革的公司,看看它們都是什么下場(chǎng)。問(wèn)個(gè)問(wèn)題,你有諾基亞手機(jī)嗎?諾基亞的手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)還存在嗎?你買(mǎi)過(guò)黑莓手機(jī)嗎?現(xiàn)在誰(shuí)還用?以前從Blockbuster那租過(guò)VCD嗎?現(xiàn)在還有嗎?

所有這些公司曾幾何時(shí)都是其市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)者。它們?cè)?jīng)都是行業(yè)的泰斗和翹楚。它們?cè)趶?qiáng)大的時(shí)候并不愿實(shí)施合理的變革,以獲得更大的發(fā)展。

講講你最推薦的旅游竅門(mén)

我從不帶托運(yùn)行李,一直都沒(méi)有過(guò)。

為什么?

原因很簡(jiǎn)單。首先,你不必在傳送帶那等行李。其次,永遠(yuǎn)都不會(huì)丟行李。再者,你實(shí)際上并不需要帶那么多東西。不知道你注意到?jīng)]有,無(wú)論你的行李箱有多大,它始終都是滿(mǎn)的。還有,每次出行,人們實(shí)際上穿不完自己攜帶的衣物。

一直都是這樣。

就是嘛。看,你需要的并沒(méi)有你想的那么多。

你覺(jué)得在你的職業(yè)生涯中有沒(méi)有一個(gè)決定性的時(shí)刻,讓你走上了接任Booking首席執(zhí)行官的道路?

如果不是上任被炒魷魚(yú),我也當(dāng)不了首席執(zhí)行官。這一點(diǎn)倒是決定性的,但我與這件事毫無(wú)關(guān)聯(lián)。

我確實(shí)認(rèn)為,生活的很大一部分都是由你無(wú)法掌控的事情構(gòu)成的。有意思的是,當(dāng)我與某些人交談或者你也會(huì)聽(tīng)到人們會(huì)說(shuō):“對(duì)對(duì),當(dāng)然有一些運(yùn)氣成分,但很大一部分都是我自己的功勞?!睂?duì),你確實(shí)掌控著大量的部門(mén),并一邊努力證明自己,一邊為機(jī)會(huì)做好準(zhǔn)備。不過(guò),生活的很大一部分都是由你完全無(wú)法掌控的事情決定的。

我覺(jué)得,人們?cè)谶^(guò)得不順意的時(shí)候不妨思考下這個(gè)問(wèn)題,并將這種局面理解為只不過(guò)是“這件事就這樣發(fā)生了”。這也是為什么這個(gè)人能去那個(gè)崗位,而你在這里。我覺(jué)得人們還不夠謙遜。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Despite a difference of opinion with his Gen Z son, Glenn Fogel insists on leaving hours early for the airport. That way he will never miss a flight. It’s one of many mantras that the Booking Holdings CEO adheres to.

Fogel presides over all of the travel company’s massive brands, including Priceline, Booking.com, Kayak, Agoda, and OpenTable, among others. With a market cap of $172 billion, Booking Holdings reported more than $21 billion in revenue last year (a 25% increase from the year prior). It’s currently No. 190 on the Fortune 500, the seventh fastest-growing company, and one of the World’s Most Admired Companies.

In an interview with Fortune, Fogel details what the rise of generative AI could mean for travelers, how he’s battling Airbnb, and his best travel tip. This interview is the first in a new series of conversations with Fortune 500 CEOs.

With budget carrier Spirit Airlines filing for bankruptcy and other airlines focusing on premium customers, will budget travel survive? Are cheap flights going away?

The price of an airline ticket is the same as anything else: It’s supply and demand. That’s how it works. When there’s high demand and there’s not enough supply, prices go up. Spirit has not gone away. It filed for Chapter 11, and it is flying completely normally. The only change is the equity holders seem to have taken a bit of a hit, and I don’t know how the debt will be treated in the bank. That’s why there are bankruptcy courts. They’ll work it out.

What matters for the price of the airline ticket is, does the supply go away or not? Not allowing Spirit to merge with JetBlue was an interesting thing. There are many smart people who have different opinions about that. I don’t have an opinion myself, but there’s certainly some people who believe that if they had let them merge, it would’ve been a better thing for the industry. And there are people who say that, no, it was good not to let them merge, because that would decrease the supply, decrease the competitiveness. Obviously the decision was they didn’t want them to merge because they thought it would decrease supply, but so far that hasn’t happened.

So back to your basic question of will inexpensive tickets go away or not. That’s sort of like trying to predict the weather. We’ll see.

I have never used a travel agent in my entire life. I don’t think most people in my demographic (millennials) have. But with AI, there seems to be a window to bring back the travel agent virtually. How might that work? How could AI help solve travel problems in the future?

People who have had the pleasure of using a human travel agent actually remember that it was a really good experience, because you’d talk to a person who knew you. She knew what you liked; she knew what you could afford. She had a good indication of what kind of family activities would work or not work, and she’d give you a few choices. Eventually, she’d come up with something, and there would be one price, and you’d give her money.

And then if anything went wrong at all, you would call her, and she would fix it magically, right? We want that back, only we want it better. And why do we want it better? Because, yeah, the travel agent knew you kind of, but the [online] database with all the previous things you’ve done knows you much, much better. And the permutations of what the possibilities are, done through computer technology, through the digital revolution that we’ve all gone through over the last 20 years, can provide a much better service. Today, we should be able to foresee problems before they happen and offer a way to change it beforehand.

When you are at your destination, you are not talking to your travel agent about what you should do today. But with mobile technology, you have a travel agent in your pocket or pocketbook that can easily be telling you, “Here’s some good things to do right now.” Tie it together with technology, bring in AI, make it so it’s verbal (which we have just done at Priceline with OpenAI, to do a voice action communication back and forth)—it would be like you’re talking to a human being, and it’d be a much better experience.

Can you give us an example?

So if you go to Amsterdam and you say, “I’ve got to take that boat ride on the canal,” you don’t want to prepurchase it without knowing what the weather is. Doing it when it’s sunny is very different from doing it when it’s cloudy and rainy. Using all the technological abilities we have, we can make sure that your itinerary is flexible, and we will help arrange it. So it maximizes the value to you.

And what’s really good is it’s not just us and you. There’s also the partner side, the supplier side. See, what they want is incremental demand. What they want is to be able to get more customers. Working with them, they’re willing to give us special prices. Let’s say [a traveler] comes to New York, and there are lines outside the Empire State Building. We could be setting up a special line to go through to skip the line, or offering a lower price, et cetera. These are the things that, in the future, we will all love—the fact that technology has made it so much better and given you more value.

Today, many banks and concert ticket websites like Ticketmaster allow you to also book hotels and other travel arrangements. Do you feel that pressure on your business from non-travel companies?

Travel’s always been an extremely competitive business. Always. Everybody’s always trying to come up with more revenue streams.

The banks, for example, are definitely getting more and more into trying to provide a travel service. So you’ll see that JPMorgan has and Bank of America has, and we compete along with other people to be the partner with them. We all win in those types of things. So I don’t see it as a pressure. I see it as an opportunity for us to make sure that we are reaching out to consumers who would prefer to do that than to come to our site directly. I’d rather get a rev-share deal with a bank than get no revenue from that customer who has made their choice that they would like to book that way.

But you’d still rather have me go to your site.

Oh, of course. The same way Delta Air Lines would very much like somebody to go directly to Delta.com and not go to us first. Nobody likes paying for marketing. Nobody. We don’t like it. We pay billions to market our company. I would love it if everybody would just come to us directly. Unfortunately, we can’t get everybody to come directly, therefore we spend money on marketing.

Speaking of your earnings, I know that you saw significant growth in the alternative accommodation space. Can you talk to us a little bit about that and how you’re standing out from the Airbnbs of the world?

We’re growing faster. We grew 14% [in room-night growth] last quarter, and Airbnb grew 8%. So it’s a nice growth for us compared to theirs. There’s no silver bullet. It’s just providing a good service, continuing to improve the product.

Now we do have a slight advantage. We offer both hotels and homes on the same site. We think that is a big advantage because people have different needs at different times, but they don’t really know that until they start looking through it all.

I still think our product has areas that need significant improvement, and we need more supply that we don’t have in certain areas. So, for example, if you right now said, “I need a house for a week in July in East Hampton, and I would like to be within a mile of the beach,” you’re not going to have a lot of choices from us. That’s something we need to have a handle on.

But I say that’s upside for us. So when we start filling out this area of supply that we don’t have enough of—and I can think of a lot of places in the U.S. where we do not have enough supply—when we get that in, they’ll make us just that much better off, that much more powerful.

A few weeks ago, Booking Holdings announced that it’s undergoing a reorganization plan. Can you elaborate a bit more on what this means for the company and employees?

We are always trying to make sure we are looking to the future of the company. We want to make sure we put our resources in the right place, and we always want to make sure that we look to the long term.

People see something like that, and they think things like, “The company’s not doing well.” Well, let’s just talk about our numbers. I mean, our stock hit a new record right now, this very moment. Last year, we did over $150 billion of travel [bookings]. And if you look at the consensus analyst reports—not me—we’re going to do well over $160 billion this year.

Another thing people will sometimes say is that, “Oh, they’re doing it because they want to make more profits.” That also is not right. The world is changing very, very quickly, very dramatically. Can you read anything in the media and not see generative AI? That’s a scenario where you’ve got to put resources into it; you’ve got to reallocate from where you are and make sure that you are doing things in that area.

Change is difficult, and certainly if you are involved in a restructuring that negatively impacts your life, that is a sad event. That is unfortunate, that is bad. And any company that does such a thing needs to make sure they do it in a fair way that treats people with respect and the appropriate amount of compensation so they can go on and find new employment somewhere. But to not do that is actually bad leadership.

Look at the companies that did not change, that should have changed and weren’t willing to do it. So I ask you, do you have a Nokia phone? Well, where’s Nokia’s phone business now? Did you ever have a BlackBerry? Where are they? Ever rent a video from Blockbuster? Of course. Where are they?

All those companies, at one time, owned their market. They were the biggest and best. They were not willing when they were strong to make the appropriate changes to continue to move on more.

What’s your top travel hack or travel tip for us?

I have never checked luggage. Ever.

How and why?

The why is easy. One, you don’t have to wait for it to come off into the carousel. Two, it never gets lost—ever. Three, you don’t really need that many things. Did you ever notice that no matter how big the piece of luggage you have, it will always be filled up? Did you ever notice you go on a trip, and you didn’t actually wear everything?

All the time.

Yeah. See, you don’t need what you think you do.

Do you have one career-defining moment that you think catapulted you on a track to be CEO?

Well, I wouldn’t be CEO if the former CEO wasn’t fired. That’s defining, but I had nothing to do with it.

I really believe so much of life is due to things that you have no control over. I find it interesting when I talk with some people or you read about people who say, “Yeah, yeah, of course there is some luck in it, but a lot of it was me.” Yes, you have a lot of agency over your own control and trying to prove yourself and prepare yourself for opportunities. But much of your life is going to be determined by things you have zero control over.

And I think it’s good if people would think about that a little bit, and recognize when things aren’t working so well for somebody, and understand that maybe it was just, “This happened instead of that.” And that’s why that person’s there and you’re here. I think there’s not enough humbleness.

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