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前救護(hù)車司機(jī)內(nèi)特·安德森最初于2020年闖入公眾視野。當(dāng)時(shí),他實(shí)錘了電動(dòng)汽車公司Nikola的視頻造假。在該視頻中,Nikola的卡車看起來(lái)正在靠自身動(dòng)力前行,而真實(shí)情況是,車輛是在下坡路上滑行。安德森的揭發(fā)讓這家公司的首席執(zhí)行官鋃鐺入獄,也讓安德森創(chuàng)建的做空機(jī)構(gòu)——興登堡研究公司(Hindenburg Research)成為了美國(guó)企業(yè)史上最令人畏懼的公司名之一。
1月15日,安德森宣布公司即將關(guān)停的消息標(biāo)志著一個(gè)時(shí)代的結(jié)束,其知名做空機(jī)構(gòu)存活了不到10年的時(shí)間。不過(guò)這期間,該公司發(fā)布了諸多揭露企業(yè)謊言和失職行為的尖銳報(bào)道,并經(jīng)常性地讓市場(chǎng)為之一震。興登堡的這些調(diào)查由公司僅有的11名員工撰寫,但通過(guò)X上的90萬(wàn)粉絲大肆傳播。這些調(diào)查將目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)了Block公司和阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)(Adani Group)這類公司,在這個(gè)網(wǎng)紅股炒作盛行以及估值狂飆的年代,上述調(diào)查成為了做空操作的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。
興登堡還幫助組建“激進(jìn)”空頭,一般是那些規(guī)模較小的公司,甚至是個(gè)人,這些空頭會(huì)發(fā)起針對(duì)這些公司的公眾宣傳活動(dòng),以拉低其股價(jià),這在華爾街和投資文化中十分常見(jiàn)。像安德森和安德魯?萊福特創(chuàng)建的知名做空機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)嫻熟地使用社交媒體或參加電視節(jié)目,再結(jié)合其調(diào)查記者兼股票交易商的身份,往往能在這一過(guò)程中賺的盆滿缽滿。
盡管無(wú)孔不入,但知名空頭的日子或?qū)⑦M(jìn)入倒計(jì)時(shí)狀態(tài)。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),很多公司高管對(duì)他們的交易手段不屑一顧,并充滿疑慮。此外,大盤趨勢(shì)和監(jiān)管方也為做空操作帶來(lái)了更大的壓力。當(dāng)前,萊福特正圍繞一個(gè)重大法庭案件與司法部和證券交易委員會(huì)對(duì)峙。
將于2025年9月接受庭審的萊福特表示,這些對(duì)自己的指控帶來(lái)了一種寒蟬效應(yīng)。他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“受此影響,三思而后行的風(fēng)氣席卷了整個(gè)行業(yè)?!?/p>
盡管其他知名激進(jìn)做空機(jī)構(gòu)依然處于活躍狀態(tài),包括渾水研究(Muddy Waters Research)的卡森·布洛克,但興登堡的離開(kāi)意味著該領(lǐng)域的江河日下,也意味著做空行業(yè)損失了一名最堅(jiān)定的擁護(hù)者。
危機(jī)四伏的做空行業(yè)
做空機(jī)構(gòu)已在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)潛行了數(shù)十年的時(shí)間,有一些因?qū)勾笮图瘓F(tuán)而成為了華爾街傳奇。最知名的案例可能莫過(guò)于投資公司尼克斯聯(lián)合基金(Kynikos Associates)負(fù)責(zé)人吉姆·查諾斯,他在00年代初幫助扳倒了安然(Enron)。然而,做空機(jī)構(gòu)一直備受高管和政客的詬病,他們指責(zé)做空機(jī)構(gòu)動(dòng)搖市場(chǎng)信心。在2008年金融危機(jī)期間,當(dāng)各家銀行的首席執(zhí)行官紛紛譴責(zé)這種行為之后,監(jiān)管方甚至臨時(shí)禁止了金融股票的做空操作。
不過(guò),這種做空策略可謂是屢試不爽,直接導(dǎo)致了公司股價(jià)的暴跌、高管的辭職,甚至是罪名。不過(guò),如果股價(jià)不斷上漲,做空操作的損失可能會(huì)成為一個(gè)無(wú)底洞,因此它的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高。例如,萊福特曾在2021年就網(wǎng)絡(luò)熱股游戲驛站(GameStop)叫板社交媒體Reddit分區(qū)Wall Street Bets。他認(rèn)為狂熱的股民將公司的估值推得過(guò)高。作為回應(yīng),Reddit用戶發(fā)起了一場(chǎng)公眾評(píng)論戰(zhàn),將萊福特定性為流氓,并通過(guò)推高游戲驛站股價(jià)迫使他退出了空頭交易。
萊福特對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō),投資者可獲取的各類說(shuō)辭讓做空機(jī)構(gòu)的處境更加困難,也算是對(duì)他與Wall Street Bets之間這場(chǎng)對(duì)抗大戲的回應(yīng)。他說(shuō):“信息池水很深,為削弱做空言論提供了更多助力?!?/p>
去年7月針對(duì)萊福特的民事和刑事指控加劇了這種操作的危險(xiǎn)性。這些指控稱,萊福特在公共報(bào)道中通過(guò)錯(cuò)報(bào)自家股票倉(cāng)位來(lái)操控市場(chǎng)。不過(guò),我們不禁要問(wèn),交易商在公開(kāi)談?wù)撃持Ч善敝筮€能持倉(cāng)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間?(針對(duì)萊福特的指控包括他持有的多頭和空頭頭寸)萊福特否認(rèn)了這些指控。
萊福特說(shuō):“與市場(chǎng)端的回報(bào)[和]監(jiān)管方相比,做空的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可要大多了?!?/p>
經(jīng)營(yíng) Orso Partners的空頭內(nèi)森·科皮卡表示,不確定的監(jiān)管環(huán)境為激進(jìn)做空操作帶來(lái)了諸多不利環(huán)境。他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“令我驚訝的是,做空操作領(lǐng)域并未出現(xiàn)重大禁令或降溫。這跟我原本預(yù)料的差不多?!?/p>
“打砸搶”
可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的是,這種與市場(chǎng)常識(shí)向左的大額對(duì)賭會(huì)吸引一批特殊的群體。其中一位空頭、善于言談的馬克·科赫茲指責(zé)激進(jìn)做空操作是一種“打砸搶”。在這一過(guò)程中,交易商會(huì)進(jìn)行空頭交易,并通過(guò)公共宣傳來(lái)謀取利益,而不是通過(guò)多頭交易來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)營(yíng)不善公司。
盡管科赫茲稱贊安德森曝光了“一些嚴(yán)重的欺詐行為”,但他依然批評(píng)了興登堡的行事方式。他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“我覺(jué)得這家公司更多的是在搞破壞,也給市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了巨大的波動(dòng)。我對(duì)這種做法持懷疑態(tài)度?!?/p>
在他的告別信中,安德森稱關(guān)閉公司沒(méi)有明確的原因,而是寫到“因?yàn)闃I(yè)務(wù)的強(qiáng)度和專注度而錯(cuò)失了其他事情以及我所珍視的人?!?/p>
興登堡目前正在接受印度證券監(jiān)管方的調(diào)查,原因是該公司發(fā)布了針對(duì)阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)的尖銳報(bào)告。阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)是一家印度公司,其所有者是印度頂級(jí)富豪之一。興登堡稱該集團(tuán)“實(shí)施了企業(yè)史上最大的騙局”。興登堡 1月初的最后一則報(bào)道則將目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)了線上汽車經(jīng)銷商Carvana,不過(guò),該公司股價(jià)迅速得到恢復(fù),而且如今高于興登堡調(diào)查結(jié)果發(fā)布之前的股價(jià)。
科赫茲和科皮卡對(duì)安德森“解散”興登堡的公開(kāi)聲明表示質(zhì)疑。有鑒于興登堡似乎并不是一家吸收外部資本的公司,他們認(rèn)為安德森可能只需暫停發(fā)布調(diào)查即可??破たū硎荆骸拔也焕斫獾氖?,安德森只需取消調(diào)查發(fā)布即可,為什么要退居二線呢?”
安德森并未回復(fù)采訪請(qǐng)求。
激進(jìn)做空操作可能依然是一項(xiàng)光鮮而又危險(xiǎn)的業(yè)務(wù),不過(guò)安德森的退出也算是敲響了警鐘??破た▽?duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“從傳承角度來(lái)看,就年輕人而言,安德森可能已經(jīng)激勵(lì)了眾多20多歲的年輕人進(jìn)入這一行業(yè)。不過(guò),這并非是過(guò)家家,而是一項(xiàng)嚴(yán)肅的業(yè)務(wù)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
前救護(hù)車司機(jī)內(nèi)特·安德森最初于2020年闖入公眾視野。當(dāng)時(shí),他實(shí)錘了電動(dòng)汽車公司Nikola的視頻造假。在該視頻中,Nikola的卡車看起來(lái)正在靠自身動(dòng)力前行,而真實(shí)情況是,車輛是在下坡路上滑行。安德森的揭發(fā)讓這家公司的首席執(zhí)行官鋃鐺入獄,也讓安德森創(chuàng)建的做空機(jī)構(gòu)——興登堡研究公司(Hindenburg Research)成為了美國(guó)企業(yè)史上最令人畏懼的公司名之一。
1月15日,安德森宣布公司即將關(guān)停的消息標(biāo)志著一個(gè)時(shí)代的結(jié)束,其知名做空機(jī)構(gòu)存活了不到10年的時(shí)間。不過(guò)這期間,該公司發(fā)布了諸多揭露企業(yè)謊言和失職行為的尖銳報(bào)道,并經(jīng)常性地讓市場(chǎng)為之一震。興登堡的這些調(diào)查由公司僅有的11名員工撰寫,但通過(guò)X上的90萬(wàn)粉絲大肆傳播。這些調(diào)查將目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)了Block公司和阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)(Adani Group)這類公司,在這個(gè)網(wǎng)紅股炒作盛行以及估值狂飆的年代,上述調(diào)查成為了做空操作的風(fēng)向標(biāo)。
興登堡還幫助組建“激進(jìn)”空頭,一般是那些規(guī)模較小的公司,甚至是個(gè)人,這些空頭會(huì)發(fā)起針對(duì)這些公司的公眾宣傳活動(dòng),以拉低其股價(jià),這在華爾街和投資文化中十分常見(jiàn)。像安德森和安德魯?萊福特創(chuàng)建的知名做空機(jī)構(gòu)會(huì)嫻熟地使用社交媒體或參加電視節(jié)目,再結(jié)合其調(diào)查記者兼股票交易商的身份,往往能在這一過(guò)程中賺的盆滿缽滿。
盡管無(wú)孔不入,但知名空頭的日子或?qū)⑦M(jìn)入倒計(jì)時(shí)狀態(tài)。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),很多公司高管對(duì)他們的交易手段不屑一顧,并充滿疑慮。此外,大盤趨勢(shì)和監(jiān)管方也為做空操作帶來(lái)了更大的壓力。當(dāng)前,萊福特正圍繞一個(gè)重大法庭案件與司法部和證券交易委員會(huì)對(duì)峙。
將于2025年9月接受庭審的萊福特表示,這些對(duì)自己的指控帶來(lái)了一種寒蟬效應(yīng)。他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“受此影響,三思而后行的風(fēng)氣席卷了整個(gè)行業(yè)。”
盡管其他知名激進(jìn)做空機(jī)構(gòu)依然處于活躍狀態(tài),包括渾水研究(Muddy Waters Research)的卡森·布洛克,但興登堡的離開(kāi)意味著該領(lǐng)域的江河日下,也意味著做空行業(yè)損失了一名最堅(jiān)定的擁護(hù)者。
危機(jī)四伏的做空行業(yè)
做空機(jī)構(gòu)已在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)潛行了數(shù)十年的時(shí)間,有一些因?qū)勾笮图瘓F(tuán)而成為了華爾街傳奇。最知名的案例可能莫過(guò)于投資公司尼克斯聯(lián)合基金(Kynikos Associates)負(fù)責(zé)人吉姆·查諾斯,他在00年代初幫助扳倒了安然(Enron)。然而,做空機(jī)構(gòu)一直備受高管和政客的詬病,他們指責(zé)做空機(jī)構(gòu)動(dòng)搖市場(chǎng)信心。在2008年金融危機(jī)期間,當(dāng)各家銀行的首席執(zhí)行官紛紛譴責(zé)這種行為之后,監(jiān)管方甚至臨時(shí)禁止了金融股票的做空操作。
不過(guò),這種做空策略可謂是屢試不爽,直接導(dǎo)致了公司股價(jià)的暴跌、高管的辭職,甚至是罪名。不過(guò),如果股價(jià)不斷上漲,做空操作的損失可能會(huì)成為一個(gè)無(wú)底洞,因此它的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高。例如,萊福特曾在2021年就網(wǎng)絡(luò)熱股游戲驛站(GameStop)叫板社交媒體Reddit分區(qū)Wall Street Bets。他認(rèn)為狂熱的股民將公司的估值推得過(guò)高。作為回應(yīng),Reddit用戶發(fā)起了一場(chǎng)公眾評(píng)論戰(zhàn),將萊福特定性為流氓,并通過(guò)推高游戲驛站股價(jià)迫使他退出了空頭交易。
萊福特對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō),投資者可獲取的各類說(shuō)辭讓做空機(jī)構(gòu)的處境更加困難,也算是對(duì)他與Wall Street Bets之間這場(chǎng)對(duì)抗大戲的回應(yīng)。他說(shuō):“信息池水很深,為削弱做空言論提供了更多助力。”
去年7月針對(duì)萊福特的民事和刑事指控加劇了這種操作的危險(xiǎn)性。這些指控稱,萊福特在公共報(bào)道中通過(guò)錯(cuò)報(bào)自家股票倉(cāng)位來(lái)操控市場(chǎng)。不過(guò),我們不禁要問(wèn),交易商在公開(kāi)談?wù)撃持Ч善敝筮€能持倉(cāng)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間?(針對(duì)萊福特的指控包括他持有的多頭和空頭頭寸)萊福特否認(rèn)了這些指控。
萊福特說(shuō):“與市場(chǎng)端的回報(bào)[和]監(jiān)管方相比,做空的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可要大多了?!?/p>
經(jīng)營(yíng) Orso Partners的空頭內(nèi)森·科皮卡表示,不確定的監(jiān)管環(huán)境為激進(jìn)做空操作帶來(lái)了諸多不利環(huán)境。他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“令我驚訝的是,做空操作領(lǐng)域并未出現(xiàn)重大禁令或降溫。這跟我原本預(yù)料的差不多?!?/p>
“打砸搶”
可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的是,這種與市場(chǎng)常識(shí)向左的大額對(duì)賭會(huì)吸引一批特殊的群體。其中一位空頭、善于言談的馬克·科赫茲指責(zé)激進(jìn)做空操作是一種“打砸搶”。在這一過(guò)程中,交易商會(huì)進(jìn)行空頭交易,并通過(guò)公共宣傳來(lái)謀取利益,而不是通過(guò)多頭交易來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)營(yíng)不善公司。
盡管科赫茲稱贊安德森曝光了“一些嚴(yán)重的欺詐行為”,但他依然批評(píng)了興登堡的行事方式。他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“我覺(jué)得這家公司更多的是在搞破壞,也給市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了巨大的波動(dòng)。我對(duì)這種做法持懷疑態(tài)度?!?/p>
在他的告別信中,安德森稱關(guān)閉公司沒(méi)有明確的原因,而是寫到“因?yàn)闃I(yè)務(wù)的強(qiáng)度和專注度而錯(cuò)失了其他事情以及我所珍視的人?!?/p>
興登堡目前正在接受印度證券監(jiān)管方的調(diào)查,原因是該公司發(fā)布了針對(duì)阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)的尖銳報(bào)告。阿達(dá)尼集團(tuán)是一家印度公司,其所有者是印度頂級(jí)富豪之一。興登堡稱該集團(tuán)“實(shí)施了企業(yè)史上最大的騙局”。興登堡 1月初的最后一則報(bào)道則將目標(biāo)瞄準(zhǔn)了線上汽車經(jīng)銷商Carvana,不過(guò),該公司股價(jià)迅速得到恢復(fù),而且如今高于興登堡調(diào)查結(jié)果發(fā)布之前的股價(jià)。
科赫茲和科皮卡對(duì)安德森“解散”興登堡的公開(kāi)聲明表示質(zhì)疑。有鑒于興登堡似乎并不是一家吸收外部資本的公司,他們認(rèn)為安德森可能只需暫停發(fā)布調(diào)查即可??破たū硎荆骸拔也焕斫獾氖?,安德森只需取消調(diào)查發(fā)布即可,為什么要退居二線呢?”
安德森并未回復(fù)采訪請(qǐng)求。
激進(jìn)做空操作可能依然是一項(xiàng)光鮮而又危險(xiǎn)的業(yè)務(wù),不過(guò)安德森的退出也算是敲響了警鐘??破た▽?duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說(shuō):“從傳承角度來(lái)看,就年輕人而言,安德森可能已經(jīng)激勵(lì)了眾多20多歲的年輕人進(jìn)入這一行業(yè)。不過(guò),這并非是過(guò)家家,而是一項(xiàng)嚴(yán)肅的業(yè)務(wù)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Former ambulance driver Nathan Anderson first burst into public attention in 2020, when he proved that electric vehicle company Nikola had faked a video to make it look like its trucks could move forward on their own, when in reality one was staged to roll down a hill. The exposé led to the company’s CEO going to jail and to Anderson’s short-selling firm, Hindenburg Research, becoming one of the most feared names in corporate America.
When Anderson announced last Wednesday that Hindenburg was closing shop, it marked the end of an era. His famed short-selling firm lasted less than a decade, but during that time, its scathing reports exposing corporate lies and ineptitude regularly jolted the market. Hindenburg’s investigations, compiled by a staff of just 11 and blasted out to 900,000 followers on X, took aim at the likes of Block and Adani Group and became a symbol of bear investing during a period of meme-stock mania and runaway valuations.
Hindenburg also helped make “activist” short-sellers—typically smaller firms, or even individuals, that wage public campaigns against companies to drive down their stocks—a fixture of Wall Street and investing culture. Deftly using social media and TV appearances, famous short-sellers like Anderson and Andrew Left combined the roles of investigative reporter and stock trader, often earning fat profits in the process.
Despite their outsize presence, the days of high-profile short-sellers may be numbered. Their trade has long been viewed with contempt and suspicion by many executives, and more recently short-selling has come under increasing pressure from both broader market trends and regulators. Currently, Left is battling the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission in a high-profile court case.
Left, who will face trial in September 2025, said that his indictment has produced a chilling effect. “It makes everyone think twice,” he told Fortune.
While other prominent activist short-sellers remain active, including Carson Block of Muddy Waters Research, Hindenburg’s departure means a further dwindling field and the loss of one of short-selling’s most visible advocates.
The perilous field of short-sellers
Short-sellers have prowled U.S. markets for decades, with some becoming Wall Street legends for taking on massive companies. The most famous example may be Jim Chanos, head of investment firm Kynikos Associates, helping take down Enron in the early 2000s. Still, short-sellers face constant criticism from executives and politicians who accuse them of shaking public confidence in the markets. During the financial crisis of 2008, regulators went so far as to temporarily ban the short-selling of financial stocks after bank CEOs decried the practice.
Still, the strategy has proved successful again and again, resulting in plummeting stocks, resignations, and even criminal charges. But because short positions can result in infinite losses if a share price keeps increasing, it involves a high degree of risk, such as when Left challenged the Reddit community Wall Street Bets on the meme stock GameStop in 2021. He argued the zealous crowd was wildly overvaluing the company. In response, the Redditors waged a war of public opinion to brand Left as a villain and force him out of his position by driving up the price of GameStop’s shares.
Left told Fortune the glut of discourse available to investors has made the job of the short-seller ever more difficult, a nod to his famous battle against Wall Street Bets. “The information pool is thick,” he said. “It adds more counterbalance to any short argument.”
July’s civil and criminal charges against Left, which allege that he manipulated markets by misrepresenting his share positions in public reports, have made the practice even more perilous, with questions remaining about how long traders should be expected to hold positions after publicly speaking about them. (The charges against Left include both long and short positions that he held.) Left has denied the charges.
“There’s a lot more risk than reward on the market front [and] the regulatory front,” said Left.
Nathan Koppikar, a short-seller who runsOrso Partners, says the uncertain regulatory environment has created unfavorable conditions for activist short-selling. “I’ve been surprised there has not been a bigger cessation or slowdown in short-selling,” he told Fortune. “This is what I would’ve expected to happen.”
‘Smash and grab’
Predictably, a trade that involves making large bets against the market’s consensus draws an idiosyncratic crowd. One short-seller, the outspoken Marc Cohodes, has criticized activist short-selling as “smash and grab,” where traders take short-term positions and profit off their public campaigns, rather than taking longer-term positions against troubled companies.
While Cohodes lauded Anderson for exposing “some great frauds,” he still chided firms like Hindenburg Research for their approach. “I view it more as destructive, and they bring huge volatility in the market,” he told Fortune. “Color me skeptical on the whole adventure.”
In his farewell letter, Anderson said there was no specific reason to close up shop, instead writing that “the intensity and focus has come at the cost of missing a lot of the rest of the world and the people I care about.”
Hindenburg is currently under investigation by an Indian securities regulator for the bruising report it published against Adani Group, a conglomerate run by one of India’s wealthiest men, which Hindenburg accused of “pulling the largest con in corporate history.” Hindenburg’s last report earlier in January targeted the online car dealership Carvana, though the stock’s price quickly recovered and is currently higher than what it was before Hindenburg published its investigation.
Both Cohodes and Koppikar questioned Anderson’s public announcement to “disband” Hindenburg. Noting that Hindenburg does not appear to operate as a firm taking outside capital, they argued that Anderson could instead have just paused his reports. “I don’t fully understand why someone would retire when they could just take a leave of absence from publishing,” Koppikar said.
Anderson did not respond to a request for an interview.
Activist short-selling may remain a glamorous, if imperiled, practice, but Anderson’s exit from the scene also serves as a cautionary tale. “From a legacy perspective, for younger people, he probably has inspired a lot of guys who are 20 years old to go out and do this,” Koppikar told Fortune. “But it’s not all fun and games,” he added. “This is a serious thing.”