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“類假日”需求看漲,助推健身公司股價走高

“類假日”需求看漲,助推健身公司股價走高

Anne Sraders 2020-06-24
一些華爾街人士看好這家公司,認為其可能仍存在發(fā)展空間。

圖片來源:GettyImages

受疫情影響,人們近來紛紛居家鍛煉身體,這確實讓Peloton獲益。

Peloton主要生產(chǎn)健身自行車、跑步機,提供社交媒體上廣受歡迎的健身課程(和教練),這家室內(nèi)健身公司正處于快速發(fā)展期。今年到目前為止,公司股價上漲超過80%,而標準普爾指數(shù)今年以來仍落后約5%。一些華爾街人士看好這家健身公司,認為其可能仍存在發(fā)展空間。

Stifel的分析師剛剛將Peloton的目標價格從每股55美元上調(diào)至62美元(華爾街最高目標價),因為他們看漲該股,認為Peloton將繼續(xù)受益于“消費者行為的轉(zhuǎn)變、健身房關(guān)閉/社交隔離,以及口碑帶來的穩(wěn)定需求”。分析師寫道:事實上,我們認為這些利好因素“有可能推動多個季度的類假日需求,同時我們預(yù)計利潤率增長會多往后延續(xù)兩到三年?!北局芤晃绫P,Peloton的股價飆升逾7%。新的目標價格意味著該股將上漲超過13%。

盡管該公司的產(chǎn)品價格高昂(一輛健身自行車的售價約為2,245美元),但在居家隔離令實施期間,這些產(chǎn)品卻成了一些健身愛好者訂購的主要產(chǎn)品。Peloton最近收獲超過100萬名健身相關(guān)用戶(公司在3月將其數(shù)字訂閱的免費試用期從1個月延長到3個月)。盡管很多消費者可能會在經(jīng)濟不確定時期勒緊褲腰帶,但Peloton增長最快的產(chǎn)品消費群體,其家庭收入在75,000美元以下。

同時,分析師對可能低于預(yù)期的Peloton健身相關(guān)訂閱的退訂率持樂觀態(tài)度,并且注意到其應(yīng)用業(yè)務(wù)最近在國際市場也大幅增長,在英國展現(xiàn)出“非凡的實力”。Stifel的分析師預(yù)測會出現(xiàn)“季節(jié)性上漲”,將第三季度總收入的(季度環(huán)比)增長率預(yù)期提高為–16%(年同比依然上漲100%),高于華爾街的預(yù)測值–25%。

然而,受益于居家健身潮流的公司并不只有Peloton一個。在社交隔離健身領(lǐng)域,競爭也在升溫,比如家用劃船機初創(chuàng)公司Hydrow和居家舉重訓(xùn)練初創(chuàng)公司Tempo也越來越受歡迎。由于新冠疫情迫使許多健身愛好者走出健身房,回到家中,因此人們對(昂貴的)家用健身器材和健身課程的需求似乎也有所增加。Hydrow表示,4月的銷售額比1月增長了400%,該公司的器材零售價為2,199美元。而最近有消息人士告訴《財富》雜志,Tempo(其健身系統(tǒng)的費用為1,995美元)籌集了約6,000萬美元的資金(尚未完成)。

Hydrow等公司正打算對Peloton的成功發(fā)起直接挑戰(zhàn)。Hydrow的首席執(zhí)行官布魯斯?史密斯最近在接受《財富》雜志采訪時說:在居家健身領(lǐng)域,“我認為會出現(xiàn)四五個贏家?!?

另外,隨著各州重新開放經(jīng)濟社會活動,健身房也隨之重開。大多數(shù)健身房都在縮減接待容量,但健身愛好者可能不想永遠獨自健身。不過,Stifel的分析師認為,大型健身品牌(如Gold’s Gym和24 Hour Fitness,已經(jīng)根據(jù)美國破產(chǎn)法第11章申請了破產(chǎn)保護)的規(guī)??s減,是推動Peloton發(fā)展的另一個積極因素。

除了上調(diào)價格目標外,Stifel的分析師還上調(diào)了未來12個月的訂戶和交付預(yù)期,預(yù)計營收將增長4%以上。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

受疫情影響,人們近來紛紛居家鍛煉身體,這確實讓Peloton獲益。

Peloton主要生產(chǎn)健身自行車、跑步機,提供社交媒體上廣受歡迎的健身課程(和教練),這家室內(nèi)健身公司正處于快速發(fā)展期。今年到目前為止,公司股價上漲超過80%,而標準普爾指數(shù)今年以來仍落后約5%。一些華爾街人士看好這家健身公司,認為其可能仍存在發(fā)展空間。

Stifel的分析師剛剛將Peloton的目標價格從每股55美元上調(diào)至62美元(華爾街最高目標價),因為他們看漲該股,認為Peloton將繼續(xù)受益于“消費者行為的轉(zhuǎn)變、健身房關(guān)閉/社交隔離,以及口碑帶來的穩(wěn)定需求”。分析師寫道:事實上,我們認為這些利好因素“有可能推動多個季度的類假日需求,同時我們預(yù)計利潤率增長會多往后延續(xù)兩到三年?!北局芤晃绫P,Peloton的股價飆升逾7%。新的目標價格意味著該股將上漲超過13%。

盡管該公司的產(chǎn)品價格高昂(一輛健身自行車的售價約為2,245美元),但在居家隔離令實施期間,這些產(chǎn)品卻成了一些健身愛好者訂購的主要產(chǎn)品。Peloton最近收獲超過100萬名健身相關(guān)用戶(公司在3月將其數(shù)字訂閱的免費試用期從1個月延長到3個月)。盡管很多消費者可能會在經(jīng)濟不確定時期勒緊褲腰帶,但Peloton增長最快的產(chǎn)品消費群體,其家庭收入在75,000美元以下。

同時,分析師對可能低于預(yù)期的Peloton健身相關(guān)訂閱的退訂率持樂觀態(tài)度,并且注意到其應(yīng)用業(yè)務(wù)最近在國際市場也大幅增長,在英國展現(xiàn)出“非凡的實力”。Stifel的分析師預(yù)測會出現(xiàn)“季節(jié)性上漲”,將第三季度總收入的(季度環(huán)比)增長率預(yù)期提高為–16%(年同比依然上漲100%),高于華爾街的預(yù)測值–25%。

然而,受益于居家健身潮流的公司并不只有Peloton一個。在社交隔離健身領(lǐng)域,競爭也在升溫,比如家用劃船機初創(chuàng)公司Hydrow和居家舉重訓(xùn)練初創(chuàng)公司Tempo也越來越受歡迎。由于新冠疫情迫使許多健身愛好者走出健身房,回到家中,因此人們對(昂貴的)家用健身器材和健身課程的需求似乎也有所增加。Hydrow表示,4月的銷售額比1月增長了400%,該公司的器材零售價為2,199美元。而最近有消息人士告訴《財富》雜志,Tempo(其健身系統(tǒng)的費用為1,995美元)籌集了約6,000萬美元的資金(尚未完成)。

Hydrow等公司正打算對Peloton的成功發(fā)起直接挑戰(zhàn)。Hydrow的首席執(zhí)行官布魯斯?史密斯最近在接受《財富》雜志采訪時說:在居家健身領(lǐng)域,“我認為會出現(xiàn)四五個贏家?!?

另外,隨著各州重新開放經(jīng)濟社會活動,健身房也隨之重開。大多數(shù)健身房都在縮減接待容量,但健身愛好者可能不想永遠獨自健身。不過,Stifel的分析師認為,大型健身品牌(如Gold’s Gym和24 Hour Fitness,已經(jīng)根據(jù)美國破產(chǎn)法第11章申請了破產(chǎn)保護)的規(guī)模縮減,是推動Peloton發(fā)展的另一個積極因素。

除了上調(diào)價格目標外,Stifel的分析師還上調(diào)了未來12個月的訂戶和交付預(yù)期,預(yù)計營收將增長4%以上。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Biz

Working out during the pandemic certainly seems to be working out for Peloton.

The indoor fitness company that produces stationary bikes, treadmills, and social-media-famous fitness classes (and instructors) is enjoying quite a run. The company’s stock is up over 80% year to date, while the S&P still lags about 5% for the year. And some on the Street are bullish the fitness company may still have room to ride.

Analysts at Stifel just raised Peloton’s price target from $55 to $62—a Street high—on bullishness that Peloton would continue to benefit from “shifting consumer behavior, gym closures/social contact avoidance, and steady demand from word-of-mouth.” In fact, those tailwinds “have the potential to fuel multiple quarters of holiday-like demand in our view, while also pulling forward the margin expansion path by two to three years in our expectations,” analysts wrote. Peloton’s stock popped over 7% in midday trading Monday. The new price target implies an over 13% rally in the stock.

The company has become a pandemic staple for some fitness enthusiasts amid shelter-in-place orders, despite the steep price tag (a bike goes for about $2,245). The fitness company topped 1 million connected-fitness subscribers recently (the company extended its free trial of its digital subscription from one to three months in March), and although many consumers are likely tightening their belts amid the economic uncertainty, Peloton’s fastest-growing demographic for product sales earns under $75,000 per household.

Meanwhile, analysts are optimistic about the likely lower-than-expected churn rate for Peloton’s connected fitness subscriptions, and note its app has seen a boost in international markets lately too, with “exceptional strength” in the U.K. And Stifel analysts are predicting “seasonal upside,” increasing total revenue estimates to –16% (quarter over quarter) for the September quarter (still up 100% year over year), ahead of the Street forecasts of –25%.

However, Peloton isn’t riding the wave of at-home fitness trends alone. Competition is also heating up in the socially distanced workout space, as those like Hydrow, an at-home rowing startup, and Tempo, an at-home weights training startup, gain traction. As the pandemic has forced many fitness enthusiasts out of their gyms and into their homes, the demand for (pricey) at-home equipment and classes seems to have increased. Hydrow, whose machines retail at $2,199, says sales have risen 400% in April compared with January, while sources recently told Fortune that Tempo (whose system costs $1,995) raised some $60 million in funding (yet to close).

And those like Hydrow are aiming to challenge Peloton’s success directly. “I think there will be four or five winners,” Hydrow CEO Bruce Smith recently told Fortune of the at-home fitness space.

What’s more, as states reopen, gyms are reopening with them. Most gyms are operating at reduced capacity, but it’s likely fitness enthusiasts won’t want to work out alone forever. Still, analysts at Stifel see the downsizing of big gym brands (like Gold’s Gym and 24 Hour Fitness, which also filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy) as another positive driver for Peloton.

In addition to raising the price target, analysts at Stifel also raised the next 12 months’ subscriber and delivery estimates, anticipating 4% higher revenues.

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