??? 諾基亞首席執(zhí)行官史蒂芬?埃洛普曾表示，諾基亞（Nokia）與微軟（Microsoft）的合作，將在移動操作系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域形成“三足鼎立”之勢。他實際暗示蘋果（Apple）iOS和谷歌（Google）Android是僅有的兩個可與諾基亞-微軟一較高下的移動生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。不過，Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪歐對此持不同看法，他對移動操作系統(tǒng)的歷史做了一番發(fā)掘，繪制出了以上圖表。

??? 該圖顯示了歷史上16種主要移動操作系統(tǒng)的生命周期，其中一些已經(jīng)被淘汰，還有兩種操作系統(tǒng)——塞班（Symbian）和MeeGo，諾基亞似乎正準備放棄。

??? 德迪歐表示：“我發(fā)現(xiàn)值得注意的是，該市場似乎隱約有一種奇怪的宿命，那就是當(dāng)人們認為只有兩種平臺能夠生存下來時，這兩種平臺的歷史都未超過3年。在參加全球移動大會（Mobile World Congress）期間，我意識到這樣的結(jié)論有些為時過早，就像幾年前，蘋果和谷歌剛一進入市場，就被宣判死刑一樣?！?/p>

??? 譯者：項航

????To counter Stephen Elop's remark that by joining forces, Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT) were going to make it a "three horse race" -- implying that Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android were the only other viable mobile ecosystems in the running -- Asymco's Horace Dediu did some digging and produced the chart at right.

????It shows the lifespan of 16 major mobile operating systems, several of which have died and two more -- Symbian and MeeGo -- that Nokia seems ready to put out to pasture.

????"What I find noteworthy," writes Dediu, "is that there is an implied peculiar fatalism about the market when only two platforms are considered viable, neither of which are more than 3 years old. While visiting the Mobile World Congress, I sensed this jumping to conclusions about platforms was eerily similar to that of a few years ago when new entrants like Apple and Google were declared dead on arrival."