????我每年都會(huì)帶著孩子們參觀波士頓紅襪隊(duì)（Red Sox）的春季訓(xùn)練營(yíng)，這個(gè)周末，我又帶著兩個(gè)兒子去了佛羅里達(dá)州的麥爾斯堡。在追著界外球跑或是找球員討要簽名之余，我們也花了一些時(shí)間，討論未來(lái)會(huì)變成什么樣子。最后我們列出了一張頗有爭(zhēng)議的單子，我們稱之為“2030年的10大預(yù)測(cè)”。

????需要指出的是，我的兩個(gè)兒子一個(gè)8歲，一個(gè)11歲?；厥?9年前，那時(shí)我已經(jīng)有了自己的第一部手機(jī)，可以通過(guò)撥號(hào)上網(wǎng)登陸B(tài)BS，我也很癡迷電子郵件，而且當(dāng)時(shí)蘋果公司推出了它的第一款移動(dòng)計(jì)算設(shè)備——“牛頓”（Newton），我那時(shí)正為美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T）提供關(guān)于這款設(shè)備的咨詢服務(wù)?？偠灾?，在差不多20年前的時(shí)候，已經(jīng)可以明顯看出未來(lái)的發(fā)展軌跡。同樣，現(xiàn)在我的兒子們也通過(guò)他們所看到、讀到和聽(tīng)到的東西，看到了未來(lái)的發(fā)展軌跡。我們嘗試關(guān)注正確的東西，并據(jù)此興致勃勃地對(duì)未來(lái)進(jìn)行推測(cè)，這給我們帶來(lái)了很多歡樂(lè)。

????以下就是我們對(duì)2030年的10大預(yù)測(cè)：

????（1）我的三個(gè)孩子中，將有兩個(gè)開(kāi)上電動(dòng)車——這個(gè)比例也是整個(gè)美國(guó)汽車市場(chǎng)的縮影。孩子們深信，屆時(shí)石油將成為歷史。不過(guò)根據(jù)國(guó)際能源委員會(huì)（International Energy Association）和《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》雜志（The Economist）的說(shuō)法，在未來(lái)的20年里，美國(guó)的石油需求并不會(huì)減少太多。

????（2）學(xué)校教室將轉(zhuǎn)變成全數(shù)字環(huán)境，學(xué)生的課桌將變成桌面電腦或平板電腦，每個(gè)學(xué)生都有一個(gè)觸控式屏幕，所有學(xué)生的電腦都會(huì)與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和智能黑板（SmartBoards）連接，而且還可以使用大量應(yīng)用程序。

????（3）基因科學(xué)的先進(jìn)技術(shù)，將使人類找到治療癌癥和肌萎縮側(cè)索硬化癥（ALS，俗稱漸凍人——譯注）的方法（當(dāng)然還有其它疾病。不過(guò)由于我們的家族病史，因而這兩種疾病是我的孩子們最關(guān)心的。）

????（4）速度超快的高速列車終將行駛在美國(guó)的“東北走廊線”上，這樣一來(lái)，人們只需2小時(shí)便可從波士頓乘火車到達(dá)紐約，從紐約到華盛頓更是只需一個(gè)半小時(shí)。我的孩子們似乎認(rèn)為磁懸浮是目前最先進(jìn)的技術(shù)，我不知道他們從哪兒聽(tīng)說(shuō)的，這其實(shí)并不確切，不過(guò)在我聽(tīng)來(lái)還不錯(cuò)。

????（5）到2030年，商業(yè)月球旅行將成為可能，而且對(duì)于那些想尋找刺激的超級(jí)富豪來(lái)說(shuō)，月球之旅也會(huì)成一樁比較平常的事，就像今天有許多富人乘私人飛機(jī)出行一樣。

????（6）用聲音控制、可自動(dòng)駕駛的轎車將變得非常普遍。這些轎車甚至可能不是谷歌（Google）生產(chǎn)的。

????（7）不會(huì)有人再帶著錢包出門了。錢包的所有功能（如裝錢、裝優(yōu)惠券、裝身份證……）都會(huì)嵌入到你的移動(dòng)設(shè)備中。

????（8）到處都看不到電線了。無(wú)線電源、無(wú)線網(wǎng)絡(luò)、高帶寬數(shù)據(jù)的盛行，將使美國(guó)大部分的電話線桿被拆除。當(dāng)然，我的孩子們也認(rèn)為，到時(shí)候幾乎不會(huì)再有任何家庭使用固話、有線電話。

????（9）滑板將用于商用——它仍將是高端的設(shè)備，不過(guò)它可以作為自行車的替代品，用于城市運(yùn)輸。孩子們的這個(gè)點(diǎn)子有點(diǎn)“雷”到我了，不過(guò)他們卻深信不疑——而且他們甚至沒(méi)有看過(guò)諷刺笑星阿里?G的這段搞笑視頻。

????（10）美國(guó)將選出一位女總統(tǒng)。雖然我告訴他們，從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始到2030年只有四次大選了——我沒(méi)有算上2012年，在這里向有意在2012年參選總統(tǒng)的薩拉?佩林說(shuō)聲抱歉——不過(guò)孩子們還是很看好女性當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)。

????以下還有幾個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)，我們雖然討論過(guò)，但最終還是否決掉了，這些預(yù)測(cè)盡管可圈可點(diǎn)，但似乎不會(huì)在2030年前發(fā)生。

????（1） 人類登陸火星。

????（2） 懸浮汽車（就是可以在路面上空高速飛行的汽車）。

????（3） 被變成飛機(jī)的汽車

????（4） 家用機(jī)器人包攬家務(wù)活，比如刷盤子、洗衣服、換尿布等。

????（5） 在其它星球上發(fā)現(xiàn)生命。

????（6） 出現(xiàn)像紙一樣薄的彈性屏幕，這種屏幕的設(shè)計(jì)就像一本書，你可以用電子墨水在屏幕上寫字。不過(guò)它像Kindle電子閱讀器一樣，是一款電子產(chǎn)品，而且可以無(wú)線下載。

????我曾經(jīng)跟孩子們提起過(guò)，要把他們的這些預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)到博客上，因?yàn)槲矣X(jué)得它們代表了一個(gè)有趣的看未來(lái)的窗口。我的大兒子十分擔(dān)憂，并表示反對(duì)：“爸爸，如果我們想發(fā)明這里面的某些東西，但是別人先偷了我們的點(diǎn)子怎么辦？”

????本文作者Jeffrey Bussgang是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資機(jī)構(gòu)Flybridge Capital Partners的普通合伙人。

????譯者：樸成奎

????I spent this weekend with my two sons in Ft. Myers, Florida as part of our annual pilgrimage to the Red Sox spring training camp. While not chasing after foul balls (thanks, Youk!) and autographs, we spent some time talking about what the future might look like. We ended up making a provocative list of what we called "10, 2030" -- 10 predictions for the year 2030.

????For context, my sons are 8 and 11. Looking back 19 years ago (1992), I realize that I had my first cell phone, dial up access to bulletin boards, a love affair with email and was doing consulting for AT&T on Apple's first mobile computing device, the Newton. In short, nearly 20 years ago, the fingerprints of the future were evident in the present. Similarly, my sons are seeing fingerprints of the future in what they see, read and hear about today. Trying to focus on the right things to extrapolate from, and having some fun with it, provided us with great entertainment.

????So here are their top 10 predictions for the year 2030:

????1. Two out of three of my children, as a reflection of the entire U.S. car market, will own an electric car (they are convinced oil will be a thing of the past, although according to the International Energy Association and The Economist, oil demand in the U.S. will shrink only modestly in the next 20 years)

????2. School classrooms will be converted into all digital environments where individual student desks will be converted into desk/tablet computers with a touch screen per child linked to SmartBoards and the Internet with a host of available applications.

????3. Advanced techniques in genomics will results in a cure for both cancer and ALS (others I'm sure, but those are the diseases my sons were most focused on due to our family history)

????4. Super-fast, high speed trains will finally be installed on the Northeast Corridor, allowing Boston to NY travel to take 2 hours and NY-DC a mere 1.5 hours. My sons seem to think magnetic technology is the state of the art. I'm not sure where they got this factoid, but it sounded good to me.

????5. Commercial travel to the moon will be possible and relatively common for super-rich thrill-seekers. Sort of like private jet travel today.

????6. Voice-controlled, self-driving cars will be prevalent. Perhaps not even brought to you by Google.

????7. No one will carry wallets any more -- all wallet functionality (payment, coupons, identity) will be embedded in your mobile device

????8. No wires anywhere -- wireless power/electricity, wireless Internet, high bandwidth data will result in the taking down of telephone polls in large parts of the country. A corollary to this one is that my sons don't think hardly any homes will have landline, wire telephones any more.

????9. Hover boards will be sold commercially -- still high-end devices, but useful for urban transportation as an alternative to bicycles. This one struck me as a stretch, but they're quite convinced of it, and they haven't even seen this hilarious AliG clip.

????10. A woman will be elected president of the United States. I pointed out to them that there would only be four elections (not counting 2012 - sorry Sarah Palin) between now and 2030 for an American female head of state to be elected, but they were bullish on this one as well.

????Here were a few that we discussed but were ultimately rejected as plausible, but not likely by 2030:

????1. Humans landing on Mars

????2. Hover cars (i.e., cars that floated above roads at high speeds)

????3. Cars that converted into airplanes

????4. Home robots that do household chores -- dishes, laundry, changing diapers

????5. Life discovered on another planet

????6. Electronic ink on flexible, paper-thin screens that mimic a book -- but, like a Kindle, download wirelessly and electronic

????At one point, I mentioned to my sons that I might blog about their predictions because I thought they represented an interesting window into the future. My oldest got concerned and objected, "But Dad, what if we want to invent some of this stuff and people steal our ideas?"

????Jeffrey Bussgang is general partner at venture capital firm Flybridge Capital Partners.