善用數(shù)據(jù),為企業(yè)決策服務(wù)
????幾個(gè)月前我收到了一份便函,要求我所在的埃森哲(Accenture)辦公室的員工們必須保持室內(nèi)整潔,接受定期檢查。碰巧我是一個(gè)喜歡整潔的人,但我希望知道是否有數(shù)據(jù)證明整潔的辦公室就能促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)效率的提高。 ????毫不奇怪,我的提問(wèn)沒(méi)有得到很好的回答,答復(fù)是“基肖爾,整潔的辦公室會(huì)給到訪的客戶留下更好的印象?!?/p> ????這聽(tīng)起來(lái)有幾分道理,因此我繼續(xù)問(wèn),是否有數(shù)據(jù)支持這種觀點(diǎn),即在拜訪過(guò)我們整潔的辦公室后,客戶更可能購(gòu)買我們的服務(wù)或?qū)ξ覀冇懈娴目捶?。至此,我似乎是在本?yīng)顯而易見(jiàn)的事情上浪費(fèi)人們的時(shí)間了,有幾位同事甚至建議我別再糾纏這個(gè)問(wèn)題了。 ????在當(dāng)今高度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的全球商務(wù)環(huán)境中,你應(yīng)該如何運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)支持你的大小決定,正是企業(yè)應(yīng)該探討的話題。而且隨著商業(yè)分析理論的完善,沒(méi)有理由不基于充分的信息作決定,而且很多時(shí)候支持性數(shù)據(jù)完全可以隨手拈來(lái)。 ????如今,你的企業(yè)可以輕松獲得關(guān)于客戶購(gòu)買模式、自身供應(yīng)鏈內(nèi)商品動(dòng)向等多年的數(shù)據(jù)。而且,你的雇員、你的客戶、你的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手以及你競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的雇員和客戶也都在談?wù)?,包括在博客和微博上提供?duì)你的企業(yè)可能有用的信息。當(dāng)今的一些技術(shù)——如數(shù)據(jù)/文字挖掘和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)——能幫助你對(duì)所有這些數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,而云計(jì)算也將信息研究規(guī)模提升到了可能幾年前還不可想象的水平。 ????大多數(shù)企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人現(xiàn)在都要求重要決定必須要有經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)的支持。隨著分析理論的進(jìn)步,現(xiàn)在我們已差不多到了這樣的地步:即便是最日常的決定,各個(gè)層面的管理人士都必須問(wèn)這樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題,“我們認(rèn)為是這樣,還是我們知道是這樣?” ????越來(lái)越多的公司都在朝著這個(gè)方向轉(zhuǎn)變。他們必須要了解運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)為其決策和行動(dòng)提供指導(dǎo)的潛在機(jī)會(huì)和挑戰(zhàn): 1. 謹(jǐn)防數(shù)據(jù)誤用 ????分析理論是個(gè)強(qiáng)大的工具,借用蜘蛛俠的話,“能力越大,責(zé)任越大”(with great power comes great responsibility)。企業(yè)應(yīng)謹(jǐn)防三類常見(jiàn)的數(shù)據(jù)誤用。 ????首先,擁有實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)并不意味著你能夠或應(yīng)該做出實(shí)時(shí)決定。不同種類的數(shù)據(jù)有不同的時(shí)間尺度:例如,收銀機(jī)反映的是當(dāng)時(shí)的銷售額,但供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)據(jù)只能反映上次下單或上次訂單的運(yùn)輸派車。必須所有數(shù)據(jù)在手,才能做出好的決定,因此你的決策速度只能取決于最慢的因素。 ????第二,分析理論能幫助你優(yōu)化企業(yè)流程,將冗余和低效降至最低。但企業(yè)流程不能過(guò)度優(yōu)化,否則可能導(dǎo)致犯錯(cuò)余地為零。高度優(yōu)化的流程——如零庫(kù)存或保持極低的庫(kù)存,根據(jù)需求隨時(shí)補(bǔ)充——是非常脆弱的,因?yàn)榭赡艹霈F(xiàn)你無(wú)法控制的局面,而你的犯錯(cuò)余地為零。 ????最后,不要做無(wú)謂的決定。有好的數(shù)據(jù),并不意味著你總要據(jù)此做點(diǎn)什么決策。 2. 做好準(zhǔn)備,隨時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì)瞬息萬(wàn)變的信息世界 ????一個(gè)基于數(shù)據(jù)采取行動(dòng)的公司能做出非常具體、精確的決定。事實(shí)上,你的決定可能基于一些細(xì)微之處,如“周日晚上在那些近期表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)的主場(chǎng)足球隊(duì)所在地區(qū)多備些啤酒”。但這樣的決定隨時(shí)可能調(diào)整,隨球隊(duì)的命運(yùn)而快速變化。 3. 解讀海量數(shù)據(jù) ????當(dāng)今企業(yè)擁有的信息已超過(guò)了他們所能利用或能采取行動(dòng)的范圍,因?yàn)楹芏嗖煌男畔⑼际枪铝⒌?。未?lái)的企業(yè)將需要花大量的時(shí)間和精力來(lái)整合它們擁有的有用信息。 ????以醫(yī)藥公司為例,傳統(tǒng)上依賴臨床試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)確立新藥的功效和副作用。如果臨床試驗(yàn)沒(méi)有問(wèn)題,他們就能宣稱對(duì)藥物的不良反應(yīng)不承擔(dān)法律或道德責(zé)任。但隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和社交媒體的出現(xiàn),如今他們必須監(jiān)控公共信息源,將這些信息與臨床數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合。當(dāng)一家公司出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題時(shí),我們將更多地聽(tīng)到公司回應(yīng)以“我本該知道”,而不是“我不知道”或“我不可能早就知道”。 4. 不要迷失于信息汪洋 ????如此多的數(shù)據(jù)可能很容易就會(huì)讓未來(lái)的企業(yè)經(jīng)理們誤入“拖延決策,直到完成所有數(shù)據(jù)分析”的陷阱,但完成所有數(shù)據(jù)分析可能是無(wú)法完成的任務(wù)。你應(yīng)該警惕陷入分析迷局的三個(gè)警示信號(hào)。 ????首先,警惕管理層的“過(guò)擬合”傾向——統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)詞匯“過(guò)擬合”指的是一旦模式已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn),搜集更多數(shù)據(jù)的價(jià)值趨于下降。數(shù)據(jù)搜集是有代價(jià)的。不行動(dòng)也是有代價(jià)的。一個(gè)具有數(shù)據(jù)頭腦的公司必須知道過(guò)擬合成本。 ????第二,不要苦等不存在的數(shù)據(jù)。具有數(shù)據(jù)頭腦的公司知道信息差的存在,知道如何通過(guò)實(shí)驗(yàn)打破此類僵局。 ????最后,要知道你的企業(yè)在行動(dòng)時(shí)愿意承受何種水平風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果員工因?yàn)樾袆?dòng)失敗所受處罰多于不行動(dòng),大多數(shù)員工都會(huì)寧愿不行動(dòng),也不愿將事情搞得一團(tuán)糟。針對(duì)行動(dòng)失敗和根本不行動(dòng)建立健全的懲罰機(jī)制,能提供幫助。 5. 發(fā)揮直覺(jué) ????依賴數(shù)據(jù)并不意味著不需要直覺(jué)。是的,科學(xué)確實(shí)是以經(jīng)驗(yàn)為根據(jù),是理性的。但科學(xué)家們不是。大多數(shù)受人尊敬的科學(xué)家們都是在保持客觀性的同時(shí),發(fā)揮創(chuàng)造力、直覺(jué)和冒險(xiǎn)精神。這為企業(yè)提供了一個(gè)良好的參照。 ????未來(lái)基于分析決策的企業(yè)將明顯不同于今日的企業(yè)?;氐轿恼麻_(kāi)始我描繪的那些干凈的辦公桌、效率、客戶以及是否有數(shù)據(jù)支持這樣一個(gè)日常性決定。就此案而言,無(wú)數(shù)據(jù)提供。但為防萬(wàn)一,我還是將自己的辦公桌弄得比以前更整潔了一些。 ????本文作者基肖爾?斯瓦米納坦(Kishore S. Swaminathan)是埃森哲的首席科學(xué)家,以及埃森哲技術(shù)實(shí)驗(yàn)室(Accenture Technology Labs)的系統(tǒng)集成研究全球總監(jiān)。 |
????A few months ago, I received a memo saying that employees in my facility at Accenture must keep their offices clean, subject to regular inspections. As it happens, I am fairly tidy, but I wanted to understand if there was any data to show that clean offices lead to higher productivity. ????Not surprisingly, my request was sidestepped, and I was told, "Kishore, clean offices leave better impressions with visiting customers." ????That sounded reasonable, so I asked if there was any data to show that our customers are more likely to buy our services or view us more favorably after visiting our clean offices. Now I was wasting people's time on what should be obvious, and a few colleagues even suggested that I move on. ????In today's highly competitive global business environment, how you should use data to support your decisions -- large and small -- is exactly the kind of conversation that organizations should be having. And with advances in business analytics, there is every reason to make well-informed decisions since supporting data is, in many cases, readily available at your fingertips. ????Your company now can easily gain access to several years of data about your customer's buying patterns and the movement of goods through your supply chain. And your employees, your customers, your competitors, as well as the employees and customers of your competitors are all talking, blogging and tweeting, providing potentially useful information for your business. Today's technologies -- such as data and text mining and machine learning -- allow you to analyze all this data, and cloud computing allows you to examine this information at a scale that was not possible just a few years ago. ????Most business leaders now demand empirical data to support important decisions. With advances in analytics, we are nearing the point where every executive at every level will have to subject even the most mundane business decision to the following question: "Do we think this is true, or do we know this is true?" ????As more organizations move in this direction, though, they ought to be aware of the potential opportunities and challenges that go along with using data to guide more of their decisions and actions: 1. Avoiding the misuse of data ????Analytics places tremendous power in the hands of its users, and to borrow from Spiderman, "with great power comes great responsibility." Organizations should watch for three common misuses of data. ????First, just because you have access to real-time data doesn't mean you can or should make real-time decisions. Different types of data have different time scales: for example, your cash register reflects your sales the moment they happen, but your supply chain data can only reflect the last time an order was placed or a truck carrying your order was dispatched. Best decisions are made with all the data at hand, so you can only make decisions as fast as your slowest moving event. ????Second, analytics enables you to optimize your business processes to minimize redundancies and inefficiencies. However, be careful not to overly optimize your business processes to the point that there is no room for error. Highly optimized processes -- just-in-time inventory or keeping a very small inventory and constantly replenishing it based on demand being an example -- are very fragile because circumstances beyond your control could arise, and there is little room for error. ????Finally, watch out for making decisions where none are needed. Having good data does not mean you always need to act on it. 2. Preparing for a rapidly changing information world ????A company that bases its actions on data can make very specific, fine-tuned decisions. In fact, your decisions can be based on subtleties such as "stock more beer on Sunday nights in locations where the home football team is on a winning streak." But these kinds of decisions are highly sensitive and can change as rapidly as the fortunes of a football team. 3. Making sense of a ton of data ????Today's enterprises have more information than they can use or act on because many difference pieces of information are often isolated from each other. The enterprise of the future will need to devote a lot of time and energy toward integrating the useful information it has. ????Pharmaceutical companies, for example, have traditionally relied on clinical trials data to establish the efficacy and side effects of drugs. If a problem didn't come up in clinical trials, they could claim legal or ethical immunity from adverse effects of their drugs. But with the advent of the Internet and social media, they must now monitor public sources and integrate that information with their clinical data. "I should have known" will be the new normal, replacing the "I did not know" or "I could not have known" response to a company's unexpected problems. 4. Avoiding paralysis by information overload ????With access to so much data, the business manager of the future could easily fall into a trap of putting off decisions until everything has been analyzed, which may never happen. Look out for three warning signs of analysis-paralysis. ????First, beware the managerial tendency to "over-fit the curve" -- a statistical term that refers to the diminishing value of gathering additional data once you find a pattern. Data collection has a price. Not taking action also has comes at a price. And a data savvy organization must understand the cost of over-fitting. ????Second, do not fall into the trap of waiting for data that just does not exist. Data savvy organizations understand information gaps and how experimentation can break these kinds of logjams. ????Finally, know what level of risk your organization is willing to tolerate when they take action. If you penalize employees more for failed action than for inaction, most employees will prefer to not take action rather than mess up. Having solid guidelines for how to treat failure versus not acting at all can help. 5. Intuition isn't dead ????Relying on data does not mean that there is no room for intuition. Yes, it is true that science is empirical and dispassionate. But scientists are not. Most respected scientists blend objectivity with creativity, instinct and risk taking. It's a good model for organizations. ????The enterprise of the future, based on analytical decision making, will be considerably different from today's enterprise. All of this goes back to that original scenario I painted about clean desks, efficiency, clients and whether there was any data to support a rather mundane policy decision. In this case, none was provided. But I keep my desk a littler cleaner just in case. ????Kishore S. Swaminathan is Accenture's chief scientist and the global director of Accenture Technology Labs' systems integration research. |