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Twitter:長大成人固可喜,維持生計仍成疑

Twitter:長大成人固可喜,維持生計仍成疑

JP Mangalindan 2011-06-23
作為一項實用的服務(wù),Twitter的良好信譽毋庸置疑,但科斯特洛,多西和Twitter團隊能找到生財之道嗎?

????本文是“《財富》雜志頭腦風(fēng)暴技術(shù)大會”(Fortune Brainstorm Tech)召開前夕的系列報道的開篇。本次大會將于7月19日-21日在科羅拉多州的阿斯蓬市召開,大會將召集技術(shù)領(lǐng)域眾多頂級的智慧思想者參與。我們的跟蹤報道將檢視各公司去年的發(fā)展進程,以及今年的發(fā)展態(tài)勢。

????The first in a series of articles leading up to Fortune Brainstorm Tech, a conference from July 19-21 in Aspen, Colorado that will round up many of the best and brightest thinkers in technology. Our coverage will examine the progress of companies that presented last year and what to expect this year.

Twitter公司首席執(zhí)行官狄克?科斯特洛在去年的“頭腦風(fēng)暴技術(shù)大會”上。

攝影:馬特?斯拉比

????如今,Twitter已經(jīng)成為不容忽視的存在,即使你并不十分清楚它到底有何用處。過去六個月來,圍繞這個成立五周年的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)話題不斷,轟動一時,它與蘋果公司(Apple)iOS操作系統(tǒng)的整合,公司董事會各類稱不上秘聞的詭計(還記得我的同事杰西?亨佩爾所寫的報道《Twitter公司風(fēng)波》(Trouble @ Twitter)嗎?),以及聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人、放蕩不羈的杰克?多西回歸公司,擔(dān)任董事長和產(chǎn)品主管等等,不一而足。而諸如奧薩馬?本?拉登之死,埃及動亂,甚至奧尼爾宣布退役之類的新聞則都通過Twitter飛速傳播,一切表明Twitter已完全成熟了。

????Twitter公司的全球營收總裁亞當(dāng)?貝恩近期表示:“我們發(fā)現(xiàn), Twitter已經(jīng)成為人們與對他們舉足輕重事物實現(xiàn)即時連接的紐帶?!?/p>

????然而,有個讓Twitter公司困擾已久的大問題亟需討論:既然Twitter已經(jīng)是一項成熟的業(yè)務(wù)了——好比一個剛畢業(yè)的大學(xué)生,滿腹經(jīng)綸,畢業(yè)證書在手——它打算怎么掙錢?Twitter先生能找到工作嗎?就這方面而言,貝恩表示,Twitter潛力無限,其用戶中20-40%的人會追捧某些品牌。(實際上,對新用戶來說,其首批10個“追隨對象”或追隨的賬戶中,至少有一個是品牌。)

????他承認(rèn):“用戶追隨的通常是他們熟知的人,他們希望了解的人,然后是他們熟悉的品牌?!币驗檫@一點,用戶的參與程度可能就會極高:比如,當(dāng)大眾汽車公司(Volkswagen)決定在Twitter上獨家發(fā)布新款“甲殼蟲”汽車(Beetle)時,公司發(fā)現(xiàn),用戶參與率達(dá)到52%,這意味著關(guān)注大眾汽車公司Tweet的粉絲中超過半數(shù)的人點擊了它。

????這些都是可喜可賀的跡象,但是,要弄清用戶的高參與度是否確實轉(zhuǎn)化成Twitter公司的營收,就需要看看公司的廣告銷售業(yè)績。2010年,Twitter公司開始滿懷熱望地推廣其商業(yè)模式,發(fā)布了一系列廣告功能,如Promoted Tweets,Promoted Trends,Promoted Accounts和現(xiàn)已銷聲匿跡的Early Bird特別產(chǎn)品,而公司實現(xiàn)的銷售收入據(jù)估計僅為4,500萬美元。今年,這一數(shù)字應(yīng)該增長了三倍,達(dá)到1.5億美元。然而,2011年營銷方花在社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)廣告上的總額將高達(dá)60億美元,Twitter的收入可謂微不足道,鑒于這個市場有41億美元是由Facebook公司貢獻(xiàn)的,就更是如此了。

????網(wǎng)絡(luò)營銷者(eMarketer)分析師黛布拉?阿霍?威廉姆森稱:“2010年到2011年的成長最具有代表性,表明廣告主們開始紛紛進入,檢測、試用Twitter?!彼龑witter公司的前景感到樂觀,認(rèn)為它占據(jù)社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)廣告消費市場上的次席。的確,大概一年前, Twitter公司推出Promoted Tweets(由廣告主撰寫并付費發(fā)布的Tweet)時,僅有6家公司買賬;而現(xiàn)在則達(dá)到600家之多。而Promoted Trends,即獲得贊助發(fā)布在Twitter頁面右側(cè)邊欄列表頂端的動態(tài)信息,原來每天賣出3萬美元,現(xiàn)在則可每天賣出12萬美元。目前,Twitter公司并未披露太多有關(guān)Promoted產(chǎn)品業(yè)務(wù)的信息,但威廉姆森表示,這些都是積極的信號,就一般廣告銷售來說,Twitter公司在第二年的發(fā)展軌跡直追Facebook同期的表現(xiàn)。

????一切聽起來前途無量。營銷界一心希望充分利用社交媒體的潛力,但顯然他們目前僅僅只是將Twitter看做一塊試驗田,要改變這種局面,Twitter還有很長的路要走。要了解Twitter公司廣告銷售(及更多方面)的最新信息,請關(guān)注我們對本次大會的相關(guān)報道:7月19日,《財富》雜志資深編輯亞當(dāng)?拉辛斯基將與Twitter公司首席執(zhí)行官狄克?科斯特洛開展深入討論。

????譯者:清遠(yuǎn)

????These days, it's hard to ignore Twitter even if you're not really sure what to use it for. The five-year-old social network made waves over the last six months with news of Apple iOS integration, not-so-secret boardroom shenanigans (remember my colleague Jessi Hempel's Trouble @ Twitter?), and the return of the prodigal co-founder, Jack Dorsey, as chairman and head of product. News like the death of Osama bin Laden's, the riots in Egypt, and even Shaq's retirement announcement traveled lightning-fast via Twitter, proving that Twitter is all grown up.

????"What we're seeing is that people are using Twitter to instantly connect with things that are most meaningful for them," Adam Bain, Twitter's President of Global Revenue, recently said.

????Still, one big question hounding Twitter remains largely up for debate: now that it's a grown up business -- let's say it's like a newly graduated college kid, armed with knowledge and a degree -- what's it going to do to pay the bills? Can Twitter find itself a job? In that respect, Bain has said Twitter is rife with potential, with 20%-40% of all users following some sort of brand. (In fact, for all-new users, one of their first 10 "Follows," or accounts they follow, is a brand.)

????"It's usually people they know, people they wish they knew, and then brands they're familiar with," he admitted. And because of that, user engagement is supposedly through the roof: When Volkswagen decided to unveil the new Beetle exclusively on Twitter for instance, the auto maker saw a 52% engagement rate, meaning that more than half of users who saw VW's Tweet clicked on it.

????That's all well and good, but to figure out whether high user engagement actually translates to revenues for Twitter, we need to look at the social network's ad sales for clues. In 2010, the year Twitter started rolling out its business model in earnest with ad features like Promoted Tweets, Promoted Trends, Promoted Accounts and the now-defunct Early Bird specials, the social network only pulled in an estimated $45 million in sales. This year, that number should more than triple to $150 million, still a small slice of the $6 billion marketers will spend on social network advertising in 2011, particularly given that nearly $4.1 billion of that will come from Facebook.

????"The growth we're seeing in 2010 to 2011 is most representative of advertisers coming in and experimenting and trying out Twitter," says eMarketer analyst Debra Aho Williamson, who is optimistic that the social network will become a strong secondary player in the social network ad spending. Indeed, when Twitter rolled out Promoted Tweets -- Tweets written by and paid for by advertisers -- roughly a year ago, there were only six marketers; now there are 600. Promoted Trends, basically sponsored trends that top the list on the social network's right-hand side, can sell for $120,000 a day, up from $30,000 per day. At this point, Twitter doesn't publicly disclose much regarding its Promoted products business, but Williamson says these are positive signs, and in terms of general ad sales, Twitter's trajectory in year two closely follows Facebook's own progress during the same period.

????It all sounds promising, but clearly the social network has a long way to go before it can be viewed as more than an experiment for marketers looking to capitalize on social media's potential. For an update on Twitter's ad sales (and more), look for our conference coverage when CEO Dick Costolo sits down with senior editor at large Adam Lashinsky on July 19.

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