????埃里克?施密特稱：蘋果公司（Apple）iPhone 4S上所謂的個(gè)人助理應(yīng)用程序Siri將使搜索的面貌煥然一新。在他做出這番表態(tài)之前，谷歌（Google）似乎還可以高枕無憂。如今網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界飛速擴(kuò)張，要在網(wǎng)絡(luò)中遨游，難免令人望洋興嘆，大家都希望有一種最可信賴的搜索方式。正是谷歌推出了搜索框，成為彌合這兩者之間鴻溝的橋梁。這個(gè)搜索框久經(jīng)考驗(yàn)，可靠耐用。而Siri的出現(xiàn)卻開始威脅到它的地位。有些人稱，谷歌應(yīng)該對(duì)此表示關(guān)切。其他人則反應(yīng)過度，將Siri稱為“谷歌殺手”，這也在預(yù)料之中。

????上周，針對(duì)參議院小組委員會(huì)對(duì)谷歌在搜索行業(yè)的壟斷問題調(diào)查，作為谷歌前任首席執(zhí)行官和現(xiàn)任董事長的施密特發(fā)表了回應(yīng)。過去幾年間，他已從一位經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富、成就卓著的首席執(zhí)行官淪為了一門信口開河的大炮，多數(shù)時(shí)間都在收回、解釋自己從前的一些言論；當(dāng)然，有時(shí)候他也只能一笑了之。因此，他最近引述了一些評(píng)論人士的言論，稱蘋果的Siri將成為谷歌的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，并暗示Siri可能會(huì)是搜索領(lǐng)域崛起的新勢(shì)力，這一做法馬上招來了一片質(zhì)疑之聲。有些人認(rèn)為，施密特不過是有意借此淡化谷歌的搜索壟斷地位。另一些人則指出，Siri默認(rèn)的搜索引擎其實(shí)就是谷歌。

????但是，面對(duì)蘋果公司咄咄逼人的攻勢(shì)，谷歌如何才能坐穩(wěn)寡頭的位置？事實(shí)是：搜索行業(yè)正處于劇烈變革的早期。這一點(diǎn)雖然同樣富有戲劇性，但并非確鑿無疑。未來的搜索將會(huì)更價(jià)接近如今的Siri，而不是眼下的谷歌——也就是說，它將會(huì)帶有更多直觀的人工智能的意味。蘋果和谷歌——也許還有微軟（Microsoft）——將在創(chuàng)造這一未來上扮演關(guān)鍵角色。這意味著，現(xiàn)在還在對(duì)谷歌是否是寡頭感到憂心忡忡實(shí)屬不合時(shí)宜。

????實(shí)際上，谷歌甚至已不能再算作是搜索寡頭了。目前它控制著約三分之二的搜索市場(chǎng)。在類似餐飲搜索Yelp，旅游搜索Kayak和實(shí)時(shí)聊天搜索Twitter等專業(yè)化搜索興起前，這個(gè)數(shù)字要更為可觀。據(jù)說谷歌還擁有97%的移動(dòng)搜索市場(chǎng)。但是，這一統(tǒng)計(jì)再次忽略了一個(gè)事實(shí)：大多數(shù)人是通過應(yīng)用程序而非瀏覽器訪問移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的。

????在某種程度上，搜索的核心一直就幫助我們?cè)诰W(wǎng)絡(luò)上找到自己需要的信息。搜索出現(xiàn)之前，就有Yahoo和Excite這樣的索引目錄。隨后，AltaVista和Inktomi基于簡(jiǎn)單的搜索框建立了搜索引擎，接著谷歌橫空出世、一統(tǒng)江湖。它首先推出了更好的搜索框，然后又不斷對(duì)其進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。谷歌對(duì)搜索界的影響并不是一場(chǎng)突發(fā)性的革命，而是一種漸進(jìn)式的改進(jìn)。只有在回顧歷史時(shí)，谷歌對(duì)搜索領(lǐng)域的影響顯得深遠(yuǎn)。

????It sounded pretty good until Eric Schmidt said it: Siri, the so-called personal assistant app on Apple's iPhone 4S, is the new face of search. Siri is threatening to sideline the tried-and-true search box that Google turned into a cross between a wishing well and the most trusted way to navigate a rapidly sprawling web. Some said that Google should be concerned. Others, predictably, overreacted and labeled Siri a "Google killer."

????Then last week Google's (GOOG) former CEO and current chair released his responses to Senate subcommittees looking into Google's dominance in the search industry. In the past few years, Schmidt has transitioned from a seasoned and successful CEO to something of a loose cannon who spends most of his time retracting, or explaining or laughing away his previous statements. So when Schmidt, citing some of those commentators who saw Apple's (AAPL) Siri as a Google competitor, suggested that Siri could be a force in search, he drew a skeptical response. Some said Schmidt was just downplaying Google's prominence in search. Others pointed out that Siri's own default search engine is Google.

????But how can Google be a monopoly that is about to get its clock cleaned by Apple? The truth is less certain, if equally dramatic: The search industry is in the early stages of a disruptive period of change. It will look more like Siri than Google does today -- that is, it will have a more intuitive AI feel to it. Apple and Google -- and maybe even Microsoft (MSFT) -- will play a key role in shaping it. Which means it's well past time to be worrying about whether Google is a monopoly.

????In fact, Google isn't a even search monopoly anymore. It controls around two thirds of the search market. That statistic was more significant several years ago, before the rise of specialized searches through sites like Yelp for restaurants, Kayak for travel and Twitter for real-time chatter. Google is also said to have 97% of mobile search. But again, that overlooks the fact that most people access the mobile web through apps, not browsers.

????In a way, search has always been about connecting us with the information we need on the web. Before search, there were directories like Yahoo (YHOO) and Excite. Then AltaVista and Inktomi built search engines based on the simple search box, and Google cleaned up, first by building a better search box and then by continually improving it. Google's impact on search wasn't a sudden revolution but a gradual progression that -- only in retrospect -- seems profound.