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Kindle Fire退貨量大猜想

Kindle Fire退貨量大猜想

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011-12-07
一些大失所望的用戶給了Kindle Fire一星評價,我們據(jù)此推算出了Kindle Fire的退貨量。

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Kindle Fire的評價

??? 蘋果(Apple)每個季度會向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)報告產(chǎn)品銷量。但亞馬遜不同,它從不向投資者透露自己究竟賣出了多少Kindle,我們唯一能做的就是猜測,一如本周五調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)IHS iSuppli發(fā)布的預(yù)測報告。報告稱,本季度,亞馬遜將出貨390萬部Kindle Fire;與之對比,蘋果將出貨1,860萬部iPad。

????用戶對iPad的整體評價為非常滿意,但Kindle Fire卻不盡然。

????以下是亞馬遜網(wǎng)站上用戶認(rèn)為“最有用”的10大一星評價。

????失望透頂。 967位用戶中有773人認(rèn)為評價有幫助

????無法打開之前購買的Kindle電子書。614位用戶中489位認(rèn)為評價有幫助

????Kindle Fire根本就是騙人的玩意??!趁他們沒有發(fā)貨,趕緊取消訂單吧。1,200位用戶中952位認(rèn)為有幫助

????內(nèi)容都在云端?算了吧。524位用戶中417位認(rèn)為有幫助

????我真的很想愛上它——但它實在不對我的胃口。446位用戶中350人認(rèn)為有幫助

????對Kindle Fire和客服系統(tǒng)非常不滿。241位用戶中190人認(rèn)為有幫助

????Kindle Fire的使用體驗非常差勁。59位用戶中48人認(rèn)為有幫助

????非常失望。332位用戶中259人認(rèn)為有幫助

????致杰夫?貝索斯的公開信。50位用戶中41位認(rèn)為有幫助

????一天之后就果斷退掉了Kindle Fire。 215位用戶中166位認(rèn)為有幫助

????上述10位用戶中有八個明確表示將退回自己的Kindle Fire,還有一個則已經(jīng)付諸行動。

????我們來粗略估算一下,假設(shè)一星用戶(占總用戶的13.3%)中90%的人將退回Kindle Fire,那么本季度預(yù)計出貨的390萬部Kindle Fire中會有將近50萬部重新回到亞馬遜手中。

????Unlike Apple (AAPL), which reports unit sales to the SEC every three months, Amazon (AMZN) has never told investors how many Kindles it has sold. The best we have are guesses, like the estimate released Friday by IHS iSuppli that Amazon will ship 3.9 Kindle Fires this quarter compared with 18.6 million Apple iPads.

????The satisfaction ratings for iPads, however, are off the charts. The Kindle Fire? Not so much.

????Here are headlines of the top 10 one-star Kindle Fire reviews rated "most helpful."

????Total disappointment 773 of 967 people found the review helpful

????Does not open previously purchased Kindle Books 489 of 614 found helpful

????FRAUD on the Fire!! Deregister yours before it ships! 952 of 1,200 found helpful

????Content in the Cloud. Forget it. 417 of 524 found helpful

????I really wanted to like it - but it is not for me 350 of 446 found helpful

????Very Dissapointed with Kindle Fire and Customer Service 190 of 241 found helpful

????Using the Fire is frustrating and unpleasant experience 48 of 59 found helpful

????Very Disappointed 259 of 332 found helpful

????Open letter to Jeff Bezos 41 of 50 found helpful

????Returned the Kindle Fire after only one day 166 of 215 found helpful

????Eight of these 10 customers stated explicitly that they were returning their Kindle Fires, and a ninth sounded like he already had.

????Using 90% of the 13.3% one-star reviews as rough measure, this suggests that nearly half a million of the estimated 3.9 million Kindles to be shipped this quarter will be returned.

iPad 2 測評?

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????再來看看iPad的評價如何?亞馬遜并未像推銷Kindle Fire那樣大力推銷iPad,而且也僅僅通過第三方供應(yīng)商進(jìn)行銷售。不過在亞馬遜網(wǎng)站上的475篇iPad 2評論中,有超過60%是五星評價,僅有7.2%是一星評價。雖有個別失望的用戶要求退回殘次產(chǎn)品,但只有一人要求直接退款,理由是iPad 2無法在其(老式)Windows筆記本上用USB口充電。

????譯者:項航

????How do the iPad reviews compare? Amazon doesn't promote the iPad like it does the Kindle, and it only sells it through third party vendors. But of the 475 iPad 2 reviews posted on Amazon.com, more than 60% gave it five stars and only 7.2% gave it one star. A couple of disappointed customers had to return defective devices, but only one asked for his money back. He was upset because he couldn't charge the device using USB port on his (old) Windows laptop.

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