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疑似云泡沫隱現(xiàn)

疑似云泡沫隱現(xiàn)

Michal Lev-Ram 2011-12-27
大量跡象,包括轟動(dòng)一時(shí)的并購(gòu)案,顯示云計(jì)算市場(chǎng)正在走向成熟。但這個(gè)市場(chǎng)是否已經(jīng)開始出現(xiàn)泡沫?

????人們對(duì)泡沫津津樂(lè)道,對(duì)云計(jì)算也是一樣。而近來(lái)大家喜歡談?wù)摰脑掝}則是潛在的云泡沫。云計(jì)算市場(chǎng)是否真的已經(jīng)開始往這個(gè)方向發(fā)展?

????目前還沒(méi)有。至于說(shuō)近來(lái)一些過(guò)高的估值(比如SAP收購(gòu)SuccessFactors)是否合理,現(xiàn)在下結(jié)論為時(shí)過(guò)早。但有一點(diǎn)很清楚,那就是從專屬軟件向基于云計(jì)算軟件的轉(zhuǎn)移不能再被說(shuō)成是一時(shí)的風(fēng)流。咨詢公司JMP Securities 分析師帕特里克?瓦爾拉文在最近的一份報(bào)告中寫道:“我們認(rèn)為,甲骨文(Oracle)、SAP和IBM等大型軟件廠商正將市場(chǎng)份額拱手讓給規(guī)模較小、增長(zhǎng)較快的軟件即服務(wù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,后者正越來(lái)越被市場(chǎng)接受。我們認(rèn)為,這些公司為了阻止市場(chǎng)份額流失、在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的軟件即服務(wù)領(lǐng)域占據(jù)更有利地位,目前正把收購(gòu)視為解決方案?!?/p>

????過(guò)去短短幾個(gè)月,甲骨文收購(gòu)了RightNow科技公司,SAP收購(gòu)了SuccessFactors,而IBM則收購(gòu)了DemandTec。大型企業(yè)軟件廠商終于承認(rèn),企業(yè)購(gòu)買技術(shù)的方式正在發(fā)生改變。他們也終于承認(rèn)自己沒(méi)有在云領(lǐng)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的基因,因此他們要收購(gòu)基于軟件即服務(wù)模式的小型軟件廠商。

????甲骨文尤其熱衷于公司收購(gòu)。隨著消費(fèi)者軟件購(gòu)買方式的轉(zhuǎn)變,該公司面臨的壓力日益增大。上周二,甲骨文公布了上季度財(cái)報(bào),不過(guò)并未達(dá)到之前的預(yù)期。

????投資銀行Cowen and Company的高級(jí)研究分析師皮特?戈德瑪奇在最近一份報(bào)告中稱:“我們認(rèn)為原因在于越來(lái)越多的客戶因?yàn)槌杀緣毫Χ∠耍ㄅc甲骨文的)維護(hù)合同,他們轉(zhuǎn)而購(gòu)買更現(xiàn)代化的技術(shù),導(dǎo)致甲骨文的所有產(chǎn)品都受到了影響?!?/p>

????市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)的下一步會(huì)如何發(fā)展?市場(chǎng)上還有大量的潛在收購(gòu)對(duì)象,因?yàn)樾⌒驮朴?jì)算公司在銷售、分銷和部署方面都需要大型企業(yè)軟件廠商的幫助。所以可以預(yù)見未來(lái)一段時(shí)間,大魚吃小魚的收購(gòu)還會(huì)層出不窮。2012年底,我們應(yīng)該能更清晰地看見哪些公司——無(wú)論大小——將成為軟件新時(shí)代的中流砥柱。我們還能看到押寶云計(jì)算公司到底能否獲得回報(bào)。

????新近整合的專屬云計(jì)算公司的成功一定程度上將取決于規(guī)模較小的云計(jì)算公司融入大型企業(yè)軟件廠商的情況。

????People like to talk about bubbles. And the cloud. And, more recently, a potential cloud bubble. But are we really heading in that direction?

????Not yet. It's too early to tell whether some of the recent inflated valuations (a la SAP's acquisition of SuccessFactors) are justified. What's clear is that the shift from on-premise to cloud-based software can no longer be dismissed as a passing trend. "We believe that larger enterprise software vendors such as Oracle (ORCL), SAP (SAP), and IBM (IBM) have been losing share to their smaller, faster growing SaaS competitors that are increasingly being accepted in the market," JMP Securities analyst Patrick Walravens wrote in a recent report. "Increasingly, we believe these companies are viewing acquisitions as a way to stem market share losses and position themselves better in the competitive SaaS marketplace."

????In the last few months alone, Oracle acquired RightNow Technologies (RNOW), SAP bought SuccessFactors (SFSF) and IBM snapped up DemandTec (DMAN). Large, on-premise enterprise software makers are finally admitting that the way companies buy technology is changing. They're also acknowledging that they don't have the DNA to compete in the cloud, which is why they're acquiring smaller players that have built their business on the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model.

????Oracle in particular has been on a big acquisition spree. And it's also feeling the pressure from the shift in how customers buy software. On Tuesday the company announced its quarterly earnings missed expectations:

????"We believe this is because every product in Oracle's arsenal is under pressure as customers are increasingly canceling maintenance contracts as they look to cut costs and buy more contemporary technology," Peter Goldmacher, a senior research analyst with Cowen and Company, wrote in a recent note.

????So what's next? There are plenty of other acquisitions targets out there, and the smaller cloud players need the larger enterprise vendors to help in sales, distribution and reach. That's why you can expect the feeding frenzy to continue in the coming months. By end of 2012, we should have a better sense of which companies -- small and large -- will become the next big names in this new era of software. We should also have a better sense of whether paying a premium for cloud companies will have paid off.

????The success of these newly consolidated on-premise cloud companies in this space will partly depend on how well smaller cloud players are integrated into large enterprise vendors.

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