????甲骨文公司（Oracle）未能達(dá)到預(yù)期收益，就如同馬里亞諾?瑞維拉（美國(guó)職棒大聯(lián)盟洋基隊(duì)球星-譯注）錯(cuò)失了1次救球機(jī)會(huì)，或鮑勃?迪倫推出了1張令人失望的專輯。這種事情難免發(fā)生，而當(dāng)它發(fā)生時(shí)，我們唯一真正要問(wèn)的是：為什么？

????問(wèn)題的答案不僅對(duì)甲骨文股東來(lái)說(shuō)很重要。甲骨文公司長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直被視為一個(gè)標(biāo)桿，用來(lái)衡量企業(yè)在信息技術(shù)方面的支出。如果僅僅是因?yàn)榧坠俏墓緝?nèi)部的問(wèn)題而導(dǎo)致盈利不足，這對(duì)于甲骨文以外的世界來(lái)說(shuō)無(wú)關(guān)大礙。但如果甲骨文公司并沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)太大的失誤，那就預(yù)示著明年的IT投資可能會(huì)放緩。

????那么，到底發(fā)生了什么事？這家商用軟件巨頭在本周早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至11月30日，過(guò)去3個(gè)月的收入為88億美元，與去年同期相比增長(zhǎng)了2%，但低于分析人士的預(yù)期的92億美元。同樣，非GAAP每股盈利為54美分，比華爾街長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)所預(yù)期的57美分要低。

????甲骨文公司已經(jīng)至少連續(xù)三年實(shí)現(xiàn)了預(yù)期值——考慮到全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，這是個(gè)了不起的成績(jī)。截至周二收盤，在公布其盈利之前，甲骨文公司過(guò)去三年中股價(jià)上漲了64%，相比之下，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的漲幅也只有40%。

????上周三，甲骨文的股價(jià)下跌了12%。在過(guò)去6個(gè)星期中，其股價(jià)下跌了近1/4，相當(dāng)于損失了大約400億美元。在此期間，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)僅僅下跌了2%。受Oracle的影響，其他軟件股也跟著下跌：Salesforce.com周三下跌了5%，SAP下跌了6%，VMware公司則下跌了10%。

????盡管歐洲的金融風(fēng)暴和過(guò)熱的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)導(dǎo)致了人們對(duì)2012年新一輪全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂，但高科技世界在某種程度上似乎并未受到影響。多數(shù)討論集中于消費(fèi)科技領(lǐng)域——蘋果 (Apple) 和谷歌 (Google) 當(dāng)前的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、亞馬遜（Amazon）平板電腦的崛起以及社交游戲公司Zynga首次公開募股的命運(yùn)。相比之下，企業(yè)軟件市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有如此引人注目，坦率地說(shuō)甚至有點(diǎn)乏善可陳，但仍然和消費(fèi)科技領(lǐng)域同等重要。

????如果企業(yè)縮減IT支出，則可能對(duì)所有科技股造成損害。甲骨文股票相對(duì)堅(jiān)挺，以及其一貫超過(guò)華爾街的預(yù)期的能力給這家公司罩上了安全的光環(huán)。這是一個(gè)能夠挺過(guò)困難時(shí)期的高科技巨人。如果甲骨文已經(jīng)感受到了IT開支收緊的寒意，其他軟件供應(yīng)商又當(dāng)如何呢？

????業(yè)界普遍認(rèn)為，商用軟件一定程度上有助于企業(yè)人力資源、客戶關(guān)系等部門的長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)行成本。云計(jì)算是甲骨文始終在推動(dòng)的領(lǐng)域，通過(guò)這種技術(shù)，可以將存儲(chǔ)和維護(hù)的職能移交給可以運(yùn)營(yíng)大型網(wǎng)絡(luò)從而從規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)中受益的公司，以此來(lái)降低IT成本。

????Oracle missing its earnings guidance is like Mariano Rivera blowing a save opportunity, or Bob Dylan putting out a disappointing record. It happens, but not very often. And when it does, the only real question is: Why?

????The answer matters beyond the world of Oracle (ORCL) shareholders. Oracle has long been seen as a kind of proxy for corporate spending on information technology. If Oracle's earnings disappointed because of internal problems, that's not such a big deal outside Oracle. If Oracle didn't do much wrong, however, it points to a possible slowdown in IT spending for next year.

????So what happened? The enterprise software giant weighed in earlier this week with revenue of $8.8 billion in the three months ended Nov. 30, up 2% from the same period a year earlier but short of the $9.2 billion analysts were expecting. Similarly, non-GAAP earnings per share came in at 54 cents, below the 57 cents the Street had been looking for.

????Oracle hasn't fallen short of estimates for at least three years -- a feat all the more significant given the weak economy. As of Tuesday's close, before the company posted its earnings, Oracle had gained 64% over the past three years, against a 40% rise in the S&P 500.

????On Wednesday, the stock tumbled 12%. In the past six weeks, the stock has lost nearly a quarter of its value, equal to roughly $40 billion. The S&P 500 is down only 2% in the period. And other software stocks are being dragged down in Oracle's wake: Salesforce.com (CRM) fell 5% Wednesday, SAP (SAP) dropped 6% and VMWare (VMW) slid 10%.

????Even as the financial turmoil in Europe and overheated economies in Asia have raised concerns about another global recession in 2012, the tech world has seemed somewhat immune. Most of the discussion focused on the consumer side of the industry -- the ongoing rivalry between Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), the rise of Amazon's (AMZN) tablet, the fate of Zynga's (ZNGA) IPO. The enterprise side is much less visible and -- frankly -- a little unglamorous, but just as important as the consumer side.

????And if companies are putting the brakes on IT spending, it could hurt tech stocks across the board. The relative resilience of Oracle's stock and its ability to consistently trump the Street's estimates gave the company an aura of safety. Here was a tech giant that could weather hard times. And if Oracle is feeling a chill in IT spending, what are other software vendors feeling?

????The conventional wisdom is that enterprise software can help companies reduce some long-term operating costs in departments such as human resources and customer relations. Cloud computing, an area that Oracle has been pushing into, can also reduce IT costs by handing over storage and maintenance functions to companies that can run vast networks that benefit from economies of scale.