????因此，如果公司的商用軟件預(yù)算日益緊縮，這可能它們已經(jīng)削肉見骨，已經(jīng)沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步壓縮的空間了。甲骨文首席財(cái)務(wù)官薩弗拉?卡茨表示，某些客戶的項(xiàng)目審批時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)了。卡茨說(shuō)：“突然之間，必須得到首席執(zhí)行官的批準(zhǔn)，或經(jīng)過(guò)某些類似的程序，事情才能完全定案?！钡龔?qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)，她尚未得知有哪家公司削減了IT預(yù)算?！昂苊黠@，本季度和我們所預(yù)期的情況有所不同。我們正在關(guān)注那些其實(shí)應(yīng)該早已成交的交易，以及那些由于發(fā)生了某些異常情況而未能順利成交的交易?！?/p>

????一方面，期待甲骨文這樣的公司為投資者提供經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)是不切實(shí)際的。另一方面，聽到“異常情況”這樣的話時(shí)，很難不去思索它的確切含義。它僅僅只是甲骨文公司的賬務(wù)出現(xiàn)了罕見的偶發(fā)狀況，但將在下個(gè)季度得到糾正？還是某些更嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題呢？

????隨后，甲骨文公司公布了本季度的部分預(yù)期目標(biāo)，由此看來(lái)，“不合常規(guī)的情況”只限于上個(gè)季度的想法就站不住腳了。公司表示，當(dāng)前季度收入的同比增長(zhǎng)率將介于1%和5%之間，或?qū)⒃鲩L(zhǎng)至89億美元到93億美元之間，低于分析人士一致預(yù)期的95億美元；而每股盈利將在56美分到59美分之間波動(dòng)，也低于華爾街預(yù)期的59美分。

????消息引發(fā)了某些分析機(jī)構(gòu)的擔(dān)心，其中三家——興業(yè)銀行（SocieteGenerale）、CanaccordGenuity和里昂證券（CLSA）亞太區(qū)市場(chǎng)在周三下調(diào)了對(duì)該股票的等級(jí)。但Canaccord認(rèn)為，甲骨文所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是該公司所獨(dú)有的?！凹坠俏奈催_(dá)到預(yù)期，是因?yàn)槟承┵I家在等待新的硬件升級(jí)。而且在軟件領(lǐng)域，甲骨文公司在云應(yīng)用方面較為落后，”分析師理查德?戴維斯這樣寫道?！拔覀兿Ｍ坠俏哪苡^趕上，但這需要進(jìn)行某些研發(fā)工作，同時(shí)進(jìn)行大規(guī)模的并購(gòu)?！?/p>

????但其他分析師認(rèn)為，甲骨文宛如一只身處有害煤礦中的金絲雀。美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）的卡辛?雷根懷疑凱茨所提到的嚴(yán)格的審批程序“可能是軟件領(lǐng)域更廣泛的趨勢(shì)。”德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的湯姆?恩斯特說(shuō)，他“看到所有細(xì)分市場(chǎng)和地區(qū)都出現(xiàn)了不同尋常的疲軟狀態(tài)，我們對(duì)此感到有點(diǎn)費(fèi)解……除了在上次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中受到嚴(yán)重影響的廣大區(qū)域以外，很少見到所有地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)率都如此低迷的現(xiàn)象”。

????因此，這到底意味著什么？是甲骨文在向新硬件和云計(jì)算產(chǎn)品挺進(jìn)時(shí)遇到了路障？還是在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定的情況下，公司IT開支出現(xiàn)意外收縮的最早警示？

????其他公司或許能夠提供更多線索。上周三，云計(jì)算公司Tibco稱，上季度公司每股盈利為42美分，高于華爾街預(yù)期的35美分。但真正的考驗(yàn)將會(huì)在1月中旬出現(xiàn)，屆時(shí)，SAP以及過(guò)去三年中在高科技領(lǐng)域表現(xiàn)也很強(qiáng)勁的IBM之類的公司將報(bào)告其盈利。

????如果甲骨文是個(gè)例外，那么本周軟件股下跌可能就是買家們買進(jìn)的大好良機(jī)。但如果甲骨文是IT 支出放緩的初兆，2012年高科技世界可能就得在艱難中起步了。

????So if companies are growing stingier about their enterprise software budgets, it could signal they are starting to cut closer to the bone. Oracle CFO Safra Catz said that it's taking some of its clients longer to approve projects. "All of a sudden the CEO had to approve it or something like that, where before it was all set," Catz said. Though, she stressed that she hadn't been told yet that any companies were reducing their IT budgets. "Clearly, this quarter was not as we thought it would be, and we've been taking a look at the deals that really should have closed and that would have closed but for some sort of irregular environment."

????On the one hand, it's unrealistic to expect a company like Oracle to offer investors an economic forecast. On the other, it's hard to read a phrase like "some sort of irregular environment" and not wonder what exactly it means. Is it a one-time quirk in Oracle's accounting - an aberration that will be corrected next quarter? Or is it something more serious?

????The notion that Oracle's irregular environment was limited to last quarter was undermined when the company offered guidance. The company said the current quarter's revenue would grow between 1% and 5% on year, or to between $8.9 billion and $9.3 billion -- below the analysts' consensus of $9.5 billion -- while earnings per share would be between 56 cents and 59 cents, against the Street's 59 cents.

????That left some analysts worried enough that three of them -- Societe Generale, Canaccord Genuity and CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets -- cut their ratings on the stock Wednesday. But Canaccord felt that Oracle's challenges were unique to the company. "Oracle missed because some buyers waited for a new hardware upgrade, and on the software front the firm is behind the curve in cloud applications," wrote analyst Richard Davis. "We expect Oracle to catch up, but it will be through some R&D and a lot of M&A."

????But other analysts suggested Oracle may be the canary in an unhealthy coal mine. Bank of America's Kash Rangan wondered if the tighter approval process Catz mentioned "could be a broader trend for software." Deutsche Bank's Tom Ernst said he "saw uncharacteristic weakness across all segments and geographies, which we find a bit puzzling... Outside of the severely contracting macro environment of the last recession, it is rare to see such low growth rates for all geographic regions."

????So which is it? Has Oracle hit a speed bump as it transitions to new hardware and cloud computing offerings? Or is it the first warning sign of an unexpected contraction in corporate IT spending in the face of global economic uncertainty?

????Other companies will offer more clues. On Wednesday, Tibco (TIBX), a cloud computing company, said it earned 42 cents a share last quarter, above the Street's 35-cent estimate. But the real test will come in mid-January when companies like SAP and IBM (IBM), another strong performer in tech over the past three years, are due report earnings.

????If it turns out Oracle was the exception, this week's drop in software shares could prove to be a buying opportunity for bulls. But if Oracle is the first sign of a slowdown, the tech world could be in for a rough start in 2012.