????當(dāng)下，微軟（Microsoft）和英特爾（Intel）仍然算得上是搖錢樹——本月公布的季報中，兩家公司營收分別為209億美元和139億美元。但是，由于對臺式機和筆記本電腦的過度依賴，它們的核心業(yè)務(wù)正面臨著日益嚴(yán)峻的威脅。研究公司高德納（Gartner）近期公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2011年第四季度，全球PC出貨量下降了1.4%。越來越多的消費者選擇智能手機和平板電腦作為主要上網(wǎng)工具，現(xiàn)在看來，（即使計算機行業(yè)擺脫了泰國洪災(zāi)和歐洲金融動蕩的影響，）這種趨勢也不太可能改變。

????高德納公司首席分析師米卡科?可塔加瓦在近期發(fā)表的一篇文章中指出：“雖然西歐的經(jīng)濟不確定性對PC出貨量產(chǎn)生了不利影響，但是北美地區(qū)較為光明的經(jīng)濟前景展望也并未使PC在北美的需求量增加。健康的專業(yè)版PC市場和新興市場的增長無法彌補成熟市場的增長乏力，因此導(dǎo)致市場整體出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長。”

????當(dāng)然，微軟和英特爾不會坐以待斃。2012年，它們將積極地進軍智能手機、平板電腦和云技術(shù)等快速增長的領(lǐng)域。微軟計劃于二月末發(fā)布Windows 8操作系統(tǒng)。它優(yōu)化了在平板電腦上的操作體驗，并將觸摸屏作為操作中心。另外，微軟還將繼續(xù)在市場上推進基于云技術(shù)的服務(wù)，如Office 365，從而與谷歌（Google）等競爭對手抗衡。本月初，芯片制造商英特爾宣布，搭載Medfield處理器的手機最終將與中國消費者見面，并將在未來幾個月內(nèi)推出更多的產(chǎn)品。

????那么，微軟和英特爾最終能如愿以償嗎？微軟的Windows 8操作系統(tǒng)是邁向成功的一步，而搭載英特爾Medfield處理器的手機也是好評如潮。但是，技術(shù)一流只是成功的一個砝碼——在后PC時代，一切都與生態(tài)系統(tǒng)相關(guān)。這就意味著微軟和英特爾需要把制造商、運營商、開發(fā)商乃至消費者全部拉進來。

????當(dāng)然，微軟和英特爾的現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)中也有不少亮點。雖然自去年起，微軟的Windows操作系統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)有所下滑，但是其Xbox unit銷售額卻達到了42.4億美元，超出分析師預(yù)期的42億美元。另外，主要得益于在新興市場的銷售，英特爾的PC業(yè)務(wù)仍處于增長通道之中——年度同比增長了17%。

????英特爾CEO保羅?歐德寧在周三發(fā)布的一份新聞通稿中稱：“現(xiàn)在，新興市場的PC需求量占到PC需求增長的三分之二，這種轉(zhuǎn)變使長期深深扎根在新興市場的英特爾及其他PC公司受益良多。”

????微軟和因特爾又被稱為“微特爾聯(lián)盟（WinTel）”。未來一年，這兩大巨頭將實施大刀闊斧的變革。雖然我們現(xiàn)在所處的時代還不能被稱為后PC時代，但是，向移動設(shè)備的轉(zhuǎn)變——更不必說從企業(yè)預(yù)置（on-premise）軟件到基于云技術(shù)軟件的轉(zhuǎn)變——將遠遠快于兩個公司的預(yù)期。因此，雖然第四季度財報業(yè)績依然搶眼，但是二者能否取得長遠的成功，還要看它們能否跟得上整個行業(yè)的變革。

????譯者：喬樹靜/汪皓

????Both Microsoft and Intel are still money-making machines--they raked in $20.9 billion and $13.9 billion, respectively, in quarterly earnings announced on Wednesday. But their core businesses are increasingly under threat because they're largely dependent on demand for desktops and laptops. According to recent numbers from research firm Gartner, global PC shipments declined 1.4% in the last quarter of 2011. As more and more people use smartphones and tablets as their primary access to the Internet, that trend isn't likely to change (even after the industry recovers from the effects of the flooding in Thailand and financial shakiness in Europe).

????"While economic uncertainty in Western Europe had an effect on consumer PC shipments, expectations of a healthier economic outlook in North America could not stimulate consumer PC demand in that region," Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner, wrote in a recent release. "The healthy professional PC market as well as growth in emerging markets could not compensate for the weaknesses in mature markets, with overall growth still negative."

????Of course, Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) aren't sitting still. This year, you'll see both companies make an aggressive push into fast-growing businesses like smartphones, tablets and the cloud. Microsoft is expected to launch its tablet-optimized, touch-centric Windows 8 operating system in late February, and will continue to push cloud-based services like Office 365 into the market to compete with the likes of Google (GOOG). As for Intel, earlier this month the chipmaker announced that a phone powered by its Medfield processor would finally come to market in China, and more devices are expected to be unveiled in the coming months.

????So will they succeed? Microsoft's Windows 8 is a step in the right direction, and a prototype phone running on Intel's Medfield processor has gotten good performance reviews. But technology prowess alone won't win the game--in the post-PC era, it's all about ecosystems. That means both companies will need to get manufacturers, carriers, developers and ultimately consumers to jump on board.

????To be sure, there are also plenty of bright spots in Microsoft and Intel's current businesses. While Microsoft's Windows business was down from last year, its Xbox unit posted sales of $4.24 billion, topping analysts' projection of $4.2 billion. And, largely due to sales in emerging markets, Intel's PC business is still growing--it rose 17% year-over-year.

????"Emerging markets now account for two out of every three incremental units of PC demand, a shift that is rewarding Intel and the PC companies that have a long-standing, deep presence in these markets," Intel CEO Paul Otellini said in a press release issued on Wednesday.

????But the coming year will be one of major transitions for the powerhouses formerly known as WinTel. Even if we're not living in a post-PC era quite yet, the shift to mobile devices--not to mention the shift from on-premise to cloud-based software--is happening much faster than either company was prepared for. So it's clear that, despite both companies' impressive quarterly numbers, their long-term success relies on their ability to change along with the rest of the industry.