蘋(píng)果股東有望盼來(lái)分紅盛宴
????蘋(píng)果資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上流動(dòng)性證券的價(jià)值高達(dá)近980億美元。僅此一項(xiàng),蘋(píng)果公司(Apple)就可以在全球最具價(jià)值的公司中名列第43位。事實(shí)上,這個(gè)排名緊隨麥當(dāng)勞(McDonalds)。在現(xiàn)代現(xiàn)金管理記錄中,這一現(xiàn)象既驚世駭俗,又令人匪夷所思。沒(méi)有哪家頭腦正常的公司會(huì)讓1,000億美元躺在那兒睡大覺(jué)。但是,正如同我最近反復(fù)強(qiáng)調(diào)的一點(diǎn),蘋(píng)果絕非尋常之輩。與眾不同是它的本性,現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備也不例外。 ????至少,蘋(píng)果對(duì)花錢(qián)的厭惡最終要告一段落了。上周,瑞銀證券(UBS)旗下的財(cái)富管理部門(mén)發(fā)布了一份簡(jiǎn)短的報(bào)告,其中有段話對(duì)其他任何公司來(lái)說(shuō)都無(wú)足輕重,但對(duì)蘋(píng)果來(lái)說(shuō)卻極具新聞價(jià)值。“我們知道,公司管理層一直在就是否向股東支付紅利一事征求大股東的意見(jiàn),”瑞銀證券的鮑勃?福爾克納這樣寫(xiě)道。他還進(jìn)一步猜測(cè)說(shuō),蘋(píng)果將在本月23日于加利福尼亞州庫(kù)伯蒂諾舉行的公司年會(huì)上公布其分紅計(jì)劃。 ????福爾克納拒絕對(duì)此發(fā)表進(jìn)一步評(píng)論。這則趣聞令人吃驚的地方在于,蘋(píng)果居然會(huì)就某事征求別人的意見(jiàn),更別提征求投資者的意見(jiàn)了。過(guò)去數(shù)年來(lái),蘋(píng)果對(duì)待投資者的輕蔑態(tài)度足已與其對(duì)新聞界的態(tài)度相媲美。它既不愿意在投資者身上浪費(fèi)時(shí)間,也對(duì)投資者對(duì)它該怎么花錢(qián)的高見(jiàn)缺乏興趣。至少過(guò)去一直如此。盡管從某種程度上來(lái)說(shuō),這種觀點(diǎn)單純得有些可笑,卻也令人欽佩。蘋(píng)果認(rèn)為,它比華爾街的金融界人士更懂得如何支配公司資金。而且,盡管投資者不斷大聲疾呼,要求蘋(píng)果給予股東現(xiàn)金回報(bào),但同時(shí)他們很難責(zé)難蘋(píng)果在管理投資者財(cái)富方面有何失策之舉。 ????無(wú)論如何,日漸清晰的一個(gè)事實(shí)是,蘋(píng)果眼下面臨著與巨大的成就相伴而生的問(wèn)題:它已經(jīng)黔驢技窮,再也找不到新的渠道來(lái)負(fù)責(zé)任地投放其利潤(rùn)。它從未像任何其他大公司一樣進(jìn)行過(guò)像樣的收購(gòu)。比如說(shuō),硅谷的投資銀行家們望眼欲穿地希望蘋(píng)果收購(gòu)Twitter。但是,這與蘋(píng)果的收購(gòu)理念背道而馳,因此很難想象這一幕會(huì)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。 ????過(guò)去半年來(lái),蘋(píng)果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫(kù)克開(kāi)始公開(kāi)表態(tài),稱蘋(píng)果愿意改變過(guò)去的紅利政策。1997年,他重返蘋(píng)果時(shí),恰逢公司面臨資金枯竭的絕境。盡管蘋(píng)果最終僥幸地度過(guò)了難關(guān),但此后史蒂夫?喬布斯的現(xiàn)金政策幾乎達(dá)到了偏執(zhí)的程度,這一點(diǎn)已經(jīng)眾人皆知。庫(kù)克知道公司不會(huì)因?yàn)榕砂l(fā)紅利而破產(chǎn)。所以,即使蘋(píng)果業(yè)務(wù)繼續(xù)迅猛增長(zhǎng),它現(xiàn)在同樣也面臨著微軟(Microsoft)一直面臨的難題。(近年來(lái),微軟向股東支付了幾十億美元的紅利。)庫(kù)克在成為蘋(píng)果首席執(zhí)行官后不久即表示,他并不“迷信”現(xiàn)金管理。最近他又表示,蘋(píng)果管理層已開(kāi)始“積極探討”該如何使用公司的現(xiàn)金。 ????蘋(píng)果一向以向外界宣告其未來(lái)計(jì)劃而聞名。平生頭一遭,它開(kāi)始愿意聆聽(tīng)別人的意見(jiàn)。我們預(yù)計(jì),蘋(píng)果會(huì)很快宣布其紅利支付計(jì)劃。 ????譯者:大海 |
????The liquid securities alone on Apple's balance sheet, roughly $98 billion, would make it the 43rd most valuable company in the world. Apple's cash would rank it just behind McDonalds, an astounding and bizarre statement in the annals of modern cash management. No company in its right mind would keep $100 billion lying around. But then, as I've been arguing frequently of late, Apple is no normal company. It does just about everything differently, including how it socks away its money. ????Apple's (AAPL) aversion to paying its cash, at least, may finally be coming to an end. A slim report issued last week by the wealth management group at UBS (UBS) contains a snippet that would be utterly unremarkable at any other company but is newsworthy for Apple. "We ... understand that management has been soliciting the opinions of large shareholders on the subject [of paying a dividend]," wrote UBS's Bob Faulkner. He went on to speculate that Apple would declare a dividend at its Feb. 23 annual meeting in Cupertino, Calif. ????What's startling about this tidbit from Faulkner, who declined to comment further, is the notion of Apple soliciting anyone's opinion on anything, let alone the opinion of its investors. Apple has treated investors with about the same level of disdain it reserves for the press over the years. It is stingy with its time with shareholders and relatively uninterested, at least historically, with what investors think Apple should do with their money. In a way, it's a comically pure and admirable perspective. Apple thinks it knows better than someone on Wall Street how to spend Apple's money. And despite the howling from investors that Apple should give back some cash, it's hard to suggest Apple has been a poor steward of investor wealth. ????And yet, what's becoming increasingly clear is that Apple has a success problem on its hands: It has run out of ways to responsibly spend its profits. It has never done what any other big company would view as a major acquisition. Silicon Valley investment bankers desperately would like to see Apple acquire Twitter, for example. But this would be so contrary to the Apple acquisition mindset that it's hard to imagine. ????Apple CEO Tim Cook has taken the last half a year to begin to signal a willingness to reverse course on the dividend policy. Steve Jobs was famously paranoid about cash, having survived the experience of Apple nearly running out of money in 1997, when he returned to the company. Cook knows that insolvency isn't possible. So now Apple faces the same conundrum as Microsoft (MSFT) has faced, even as Apple continues to experience torrid growth. (Microsoft has dividended billions of dollars to shareholders in recent years.) Shortly after becoming CEO Cook said he wasn't "religious" about cash management. More recently he said Apple's management was "actively discussing" what to do about the cash. ????Apple is famous for telling others what it will do. For once, it appears to be listening to what others want. Expect a dividend announcement sooner rather than later. |