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微軟撥云見日

微軟撥云見日

Kevin Kelleher 2012-02-17
微軟已經(jīng)不大可能成為主宰后PC世界的王者。但是,由于其服務(wù)器、商業(yè)、以及娛樂等部門的業(yè)務(wù)呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定增長,所以當(dāng)不當(dāng)霸主或許并不那么重要。

????微軟(Microsoft)從來都是眾矢之的。事實(shí)上,自從Windows王朝開始被競(jìng)爭對(duì)手的技術(shù)所取代,比爾?蓋茨就遠(yuǎn)離了他親手創(chuàng)建的這家公司,而將一個(gè)費(fèi)力不討好的任務(wù)丟給了首席執(zhí)行官史蒂夫?鮑爾默:在一個(gè)日益由蘋果(Apple)、谷歌(Google)、和Facebook等公司說了算的行業(yè)竭盡全力為微軟覓得一席之地。

????投資者對(duì)這一點(diǎn)認(rèn)識(shí)得尤為清醒,他們甚至曾多次呼吁鮑爾默辭職。2010年和2011年,微軟股票表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)低于市場(chǎng)平均水平。兩年間,其股票價(jià)值下降了15%,而道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)(Dow Jones Industrial Average)卻上升了17%。此外,盡管微軟在此期間的市盈率始終保持在10上下,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低低于道瓊斯的平均市盈率,微軟股票仍然遜色于入選道瓊斯指數(shù)的其他股票。

????2012年,這種情形開始轉(zhuǎn)變。今年,到目前為止,微軟股票上漲了19%,而道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)只上升了5%。此外,微軟股票價(jià)值始終穩(wěn)定在32美元/股的水平上下,這是自2008年年初以來,其股票首次恢復(fù)到這一水平。出現(xiàn)現(xiàn)象的主要原因應(yīng)該是微軟最終成功地說服了投資者,讓他們相信自己在后PC世界里仍然會(huì)有上佳的表現(xiàn)。

????當(dāng)然,微軟不會(huì)成為后PC世界的王者,但它也不會(huì)落伍。它不過是從領(lǐng)跑的位置移到了隊(duì)伍中的另外一個(gè)位置而已。投資者們?cè)鴳n心忡忡,擔(dān)心平板電腦和智能手機(jī)的興起會(huì)讓微軟一步步地衰落下去。相反,微軟似乎正在對(duì)自己進(jìn)行重新定位,以謀求未來數(shù)年內(nèi)穩(wěn)定而溫和的增長。

????這似乎也是華爾街今年以來始終在向微軟傳遞的信息。幾十年來,Windows軟件銷售始終是微軟營業(yè)收入的搖錢樹。上個(gè)季度,這塊收入為47.4億美元,下降了6%。這很大程度上是由于上網(wǎng)本的銷售額下降了70%所致。如果換在過去,僅僅這一項(xiàng)就足已成為拖累股票增長的不利因素,但上述數(shù)字公布以來,微軟的股票反而穩(wěn)步增長了8%。

????原因何在?首先,其他部門的業(yè)績?cè)鲩L完全彌補(bǔ)了Windows銷售額的下降。娛樂及設(shè)備部門(包括Xbox游戲機(jī))的收入增長了15%,達(dá)到42.4億美元。服務(wù)器及工具部門的收入增長了11%,達(dá)到47.7億美元。換言之,上季度,服務(wù)器收入增長迅速,已超過Windows的收入;而且,娛樂收入同樣也快趕上Windows收入了。

????因此,即使Windows業(yè)務(wù)瀕臨衰亡,微軟也早有打算,另辟財(cái)源,確保其他業(yè)務(wù)的收入和利潤持續(xù)增長。而且,現(xiàn)在就下斷論說Windows即將滅亡未免為時(shí)過早,很可能事實(shí)并非如此。事實(shí)上,這塊業(yè)務(wù)也許很快便會(huì)再次呈現(xiàn)持續(xù)多年的增長之勢(shì)。

????Microsoft will always have its detractors. The truth is that Bill Gates moved away from the company he founded just as the Windows dynasty was being supplanted by rival technologies. That left CEO Steve Ballmer with the thankless task of trying to find a place for Microsoft in an industry where companies like Apple, Google and Facebook seemed to be increasingly setting the agenda.

????That sense of disenchantment has been especially strong among investors, who have repeatedly called for Ballmer to resign. In 2010 and 2011, Microsoft (MSFT) significantly underperformed the broader market, declining 15% over the two-year period while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 17%. And it underperformed its Dow peers even though it had a price-earnings ratio that was consistently near 10, well below the Dow's average PE ratio.

????In 2012, things are changing. So far this year, Microsoft's stock is up 19%, against a 5% rise in the Dow, and it's been flirting with the $32 a share level it hasn't seen since early 2008. And the biggest reason seems to be that Microsoft is finally persuading investors that it's going to be just fine in the post-PC world.

????Of course, Microsoft won't dominate the post-PC world. Neither will it be irrelevant. It' has changed its seat at the head of the table for just another seat at the table. Investors had feared that the rise of tablets and smartphones meant a slow decline for the company. Instead, Microsoft seems to be positioning itself for years of steady, moderate growth.

????That also seems to be the message that Wall Street has been sending to Microsoft this year. In the most recent quarter, revenue from Windows software, for decades the biggest source of Microsoft revenue, fell 6% last quarter to $4.74 billion, due largely to a 70% decline in netbook sales. In the past that alone would have been bad news, but Microsoft's stock has steadily risen 8% since that disclosure.

????Why? First, because other divisions are more than making up for the slowdown in Windows sales. Revenue from entertainment and devices (which includes the Xbox game console) rose 15% to $4.24 billion. And revenue from servers and tools rose 11% to $4.77 billion. In other words, server revenue grew fast enough to eclipse Windows revenue last quarter. And entertainment revenue is close to surpassing it as well.

????So even if Windows were a dying franchise, Microsoft has laid plans to keep its revenue and profits growing in other areas. And while it's too early to say decisively, Windows may not be a dying franchise. It may in fact be one about to see renewed growth for years.

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