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亞馬遜優(yōu)惠服務(wù)放長(zhǎng)線釣大魚(yú)

亞馬遜優(yōu)惠服務(wù)放長(zhǎng)線釣大魚(yú)

JP Mangalindan 2012-02-24
積分獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)計(jì)劃或許不會(huì)給零售巨頭亞馬遜帶來(lái)盈利,但幾乎可以肯定的是,這一計(jì)劃是亞馬遜未來(lái)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略中的重要組成部分。

????2005年,為了進(jìn)一步刺激消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買(mǎi)行為,亞馬遜公司(Amazon)推出了Prime服務(wù)。用戶(hù)只需繳納79美元的年費(fèi),就能享受網(wǎng)購(gòu)商品兩日送達(dá)的服務(wù),而且不限產(chǎn)品件數(shù)。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,亞馬遜還發(fā)起了另外幾項(xiàng)惠及消費(fèi)者的活動(dòng)。去年公司推出Prime即時(shí)視頻服務(wù),這是一種與在線影片租賃提供商N(yùn)etflix公司類(lèi)似的無(wú)限量電影電視流服務(wù)。公司還創(chuàng)立了針對(duì)Kindle用戶(hù)的免費(fèi)數(shù)字公共圖書(shū)館,提供免費(fèi)的電子書(shū)精選,但只有Prime服務(wù)會(huì)員才可使用。后來(lái)公司宣布每位購(gòu)買(mǎi)Kindle Fire平板電腦的用戶(hù)都能免費(fèi)獲贈(zèng)一個(gè)月的會(huì)員服務(wù)。亞馬遜Prime服務(wù)的目標(biāo)很明確,它已經(jīng)成為公司向平板電腦、流媒體等多種行業(yè)秘密進(jìn)軍的“特洛伊木馬”。公司首席執(zhí)行官杰夫?貝佐斯為這個(gè)雄心勃勃的擴(kuò)展戰(zhàn)略下了很大賭注,Prime服務(wù)很有可能是公司成立17年以來(lái)最冒險(xiǎn)的一次行動(dòng);當(dāng)然,這也是最有發(fā)展前景的一次行動(dòng)。

????由于亞馬遜未透露Prime服務(wù)的具體數(shù)據(jù),所以目前的用戶(hù)數(shù)量尚不清楚。坊間的猜測(cè)從300萬(wàn)到1,000萬(wàn)都有?!?a title="" target="_blank">彭博社(Bloomberg)在上周一份報(bào)告中指出,真實(shí)的增長(zhǎng)量會(huì)低于亞馬遜自己透露的數(shù)據(jù)?!扛粐?guó)銀行(Well’s Fargo)分析師馬特?尼莫表示,Prime服務(wù)會(huì)員的消費(fèi)額是這項(xiàng)服務(wù)推出之前的三倍之多。信息技術(shù)分析公司Forrester的分析師蘇查利塔?馬爾普魯稱(chēng):“亞馬遜希望潛移默化地讓人們逐漸增加消費(fèi),并用其他業(yè)務(wù)來(lái)補(bǔ)償盈利?!保▉嗰R遜拒絕就此報(bào)道發(fā)表評(píng)論。)

????幾乎可以肯定的是,亞馬遜為Prime服務(wù)投入了大量資金。Piper Jaffray投資銀行分析師吉恩?蒙斯特認(rèn)為,亞馬遜為Prime服務(wù)目前投入的錢(qián)要比賺的錢(qián)還多,平均在每位用戶(hù)身上要投入11美元。此外,尼莫還表示,公司在凈運(yùn)輸成本上損失了約24億美元,其中很大一部分源于Prime服務(wù)的運(yùn)送。亞馬遜的舉動(dòng)表明,他們?yōu)榱诉m應(yīng)公司擴(kuò)張步伐,并不在乎利潤(rùn)率降低,這著實(shí)讓某些投資者膽戰(zhàn)心驚。上個(gè)季度,雖然通過(guò)對(duì)新銷(xiāo)售庫(kù)房加大投資,銷(xiāo)售額增加了35%,但是利潤(rùn)暴跌了58%,降至1.77億美元。公司在2011年度報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“我們認(rèn)為給消費(fèi)者提供低價(jià)服務(wù)對(duì)于公司未來(lái)的成功相當(dāng)重要,降價(jià)銷(xiāo)售的一個(gè)途徑就是送貨優(yōu)惠服務(wù)。”

????忠誠(chéng)用戶(hù)送貨項(xiàng)目的市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)似乎很大。有預(yù)測(cè)稱(chēng),2,000千萬(wàn)到3,000萬(wàn)個(gè)美國(guó)家庭愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)類(lèi)似Prime的服務(wù)。兩年前成立的Shoprunner電子商務(wù)公司是亞馬遜Prime服務(wù)的唯一主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者。該公司由電子商務(wù)軟件公司GSI Commerce和包括玩具反斗城(Toys 'R Us)和無(wú)線電器材公司(Radio Shack)在內(nèi)的40多家批發(fā)零售連鎖實(shí)體店進(jìn)行合作。盡管Shoprunner公司去年的銷(xiāo)售額比前一年增長(zhǎng)了一億美元,合作零售商的數(shù)量也已經(jīng)擴(kuò)大到60家,但分析師認(rèn)為Prime服務(wù)仍然占據(jù)著絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)。此外,有報(bào)道稱(chēng)谷歌公司(Google)也準(zhǔn)備推出與Prime類(lèi)似的服務(wù)。

????Launched in 2005, Amazon Prime aimed to get customers to spend more. For $79 a year, members got free two-day delivery on an unlimited number of items. Amazon sweetened the pot from there. Last year, it introduced Prime Instant Videos, an unlimited movie and TV streaming service similar to Netflix. It also created the Kindle Owners Lending Library, a digital public library that makes select ebooks available for free. Only Prime members got access. Then, the company announced that each of its Kindle Fire tablets would come with a free month of membership in the box. Prime's real purpose is now clear: it has become the retail giant's Trojan horse into a broad range of businesses, from tablets to streaming media. As CEO Jeff Bezos doubles down on an ambitious growth strategy, Prime may very well be Amazon's riskiest gamble in the company's 17 year history. Not to mention its most promising.

????Because Amazon does not break out Prime data, the number of subscribers remains a mystery. Estimates skew wildly between three million and ten million. (A Bloomberg report last week claimed growth was more sluggish than Amazon has let on.) What's clear is that Prime members spend, upwards of three times what they would without the service, according to Well's Fargo (WFC) analyst Matt Nemer. "Amazon (AMZN) wants to steal wallet share away and use other parts of its business to subsidize profitability," adds Forrester (FORR) analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. (Amazon declined to comment for this story.)

????Also nearly certain, that Prime is costing Amazon. Piper Jaffray (PJC) analyst Gene Munster believes Amazon is spending more money than it earns on the program -- by as much as $11 per user. What's more, the company lost some $2.4 billion last year in net shipping costs, a large part of that attributable to Prime shipping says Nemer. Amazon has shown it doesn't mind lower margins to accommodate expansion, spooking some investors. In the most recent quarter, profits plunged 58% to $177 million, despite a 35% jump in sales, due to heavy investments in new sales fulfillment centers. "We believe that offering low prices to our customers is fundamental to our future success, and one way we offer lower prices is through shipping offers," the company wrote in its 2011 annual report.

????The market opportunity for a loyalty shipping program appears quite large. By one estimate, between 20 and 30 million U.S. households may be willing to pay for something like Prime. Shoprunner, a counteroffensive launched two years ago by GSI Commerce in partnership with over 40 brick and mortar chains like Toys 'R Us and Radio Shack (RSH), remains the only other major competitor. Though Shoprunner drove more than $100 million in sales last year and now works with 60 retailers, analysts believe Prime remains dominant. To wit, Google (GOOG) reportedly wants to get into the game with a Prime-like service of its own.

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