????維基解密（WikiLeaks）開(kāi)始發(fā)布據(jù)自稱來(lái)自全球情報(bào)分析網(wǎng)站Stratfor的500萬(wàn)份電子郵件短短幾小時(shí)后，人們就意識(shí)到，這次泄密造成的影響可能要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)上次維基解密發(fā)布的幾千份外交電文。上次泄密的電文大部分只是關(guān)于流言、繁瑣俗事和低層面的閑聊而已。然而，這此Stratfor的郵件泄密可能對(duì)全球范圍內(nèi)的公司、政府和一些個(gè)人產(chǎn)生爆炸性的影響，尤其是對(duì)Stratfor本身。當(dāng)然，也可能不會(huì)有那么嚴(yán)重的影響。但至少，這批郵件看上去要有意思得多。

????短期內(nèi)很多公司的公關(guān)部看來(lái)都要加班加點(diǎn)了。長(zhǎng)期影響如何，很大程度上將取決于未來(lái)幾周陸續(xù)披露的內(nèi)容。這些郵件顯示了Stratfor員工與客戶公司（包括一些全球最大的跨國(guó)公司）高管的一些商談內(nèi)容。迄今為止，還只發(fā)布了幾百封電子郵件。即便沒(méi)有定時(shí)炸彈，這些信息至少也是很有意思的。目前，所有電子郵件的真實(shí)性都沒(méi)有得到驗(yàn)證，但根據(jù)迄今為止的一些信息可以知道：

????? 2011年5月，Stratfor的一些員工談到，美聯(lián)銀行（Wachovia）在墨西哥毒品集團(tuán)洗錢(qián)案中的參與程度和涉及金額可能都超過(guò)已知水平，針對(duì)該行的調(diào)查仍在繼續(xù)。根據(jù)一封據(jù)稱是Stratford員工發(fā)給幾位同事的電子郵件稱，這位員工的一位“美國(guó)中央情報(bào)局（CIA）密友”告訴他，美聯(lián)銀行是“一場(chǎng)正在進(jìn)行的調(diào)查”的對(duì)象。富國(guó)銀行（Wells Fargo）下屬的美聯(lián)銀行已經(jīng)就此案達(dá)成和解，但并不承認(rèn)存在過(guò)錯(cuò)。2010年，美聯(lián)銀行被沒(méi)收1.10億美元 ，另外還被罰款5,000萬(wàn)美元。

????? 另一份電子郵件討論顯示，2009年可口可樂(lè)（Coca-Cola）曾請(qǐng)Stratfor搜集動(dòng)物保護(hù)組織“善待動(dòng)物組織”（People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals，簡(jiǎn)稱PETA）的情報(bào)?？煽诳蓸?lè)擔(dān)心，次年的溫哥華冬季奧運(yùn)會(huì)期間可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)抗議活動(dòng)。

????? 根據(jù)維基解密，Stratfor員工和陶氏化學(xué)（Dow Chemical）員工及其他人之間的郵件往來(lái)顯示，Stratfor曾代表陶氏化學(xué)搜集反企業(yè)宣傳鼓動(dòng)組織The Yes Men的情報(bào)。陶氏化學(xué)擔(dān)心1984年印度博帕爾災(zāi)難（1984 Bhopal disaster）二十五周年可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)激進(jìn)活動(dòng)。（1984年，美國(guó)一家公司在印度博帕爾的工廠發(fā)生了嚴(yán)重的毒氣泄漏事件，造成2萬(wàn)多人死亡，幾十萬(wàn)人身受其害，這家公司后來(lái)被陶氏化學(xué)收購(gòu)?！g注）

????? 可能最令人震驚的消息，至少對(duì)于Statfor而言，是有郵件顯示該公司正在計(jì)劃設(shè)立一只名為StratCap的基金，根據(jù)公司搜集的情報(bào)信息進(jìn)行投資交易。一份據(jù)稱由Stratfor創(chuàng)始人兼董事長(zhǎng)喬治?弗萊德曼撰寫(xiě)的郵件稱，該基金“將使我們有一個(gè)全新但相關(guān)的渠道，也就是一只投資基金，來(lái)利用我們?cè)谌蛩鸭那閳?bào)。我們?cè)鵀槠渌麑?duì)沖基金提供咨詢，如今我們有了自己的基金……”參與此次討論的還有當(dāng)時(shí)在高盛（Goldman Sachs）任職的謝伊?莫倫茲。據(jù)維基解密稱，弗萊德曼在郵件中寫(xiě)道：“StratCap要做的是利用我們的情報(bào)和分析，通過(guò)一系列地緣政治工具進(jìn)行交易，特別是政府債券和貨幣等等?！编]件稱，莫倫茲“大舉”投資了逾400萬(wàn)美元。

????Just hours after WikiLeaks started publishing the 5 million emails it says come from the global-intelligence publisher Stratfor, it's becoming clear that this data dump could have a much larger impact than WikiLeaks' earlier publication of thousands of diplomatic cables. Those cables revealed, for the most part, mere gossip and mundane, low-level chatter. But the Stratfor emails could be explosive for companies, governments and individuals around the world, not least for Stratfor itself. Or they might not. At the very least, this batch of data seems far more interesting.

????In the short term, it appears that the public-relations departments of many companies are going to be clocking a lot of overtime hours. In the longer term, much depends on what is revealed in the coming couple of weeks. The emails show Stratfor employees in discussions with executives at client firms, which include some of the biggest multinational corporations on the planet. So far, only a few hundred emails have been posted. If there are no ticking bombs, the forthcoming information at the very least promises to be interesting. The authenticity of the emails hasn't been verified in all cases, but according to some of the messages thus far:

????? Stratfor employees in May 2011 discussed the possibility that Wachovia's involvement in laundering the money of Mexican drug cartels could run deeper and involve more money than was already known, and that an investigation of the bank was continuing. According to the purported email of a Stratford employee to some of his colleagues, one of his "CIA cronies" had told him that Wachovia was the subject of an "ongoing investigation." Wachovia, now owned by Wells Fargo (WFC) as it was when this discussion took place, settled the case against it without admitting wrongdoing. Wachovia in 2010 forfeited $110 million and was fined another $50 million.

????? Coca-Cola (KO) in 2009 asked Stratfor to gather information on the animal-rights group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, according to another purported email discussion. The company was worried about possible protest activity during the Winter Olympics in Vancouver the following year.

????? Stratfor gathered intelligence on the anti-corporate agitprop group The Yes Men on behalf of Dow Chemical (DOW), as shown by several discussions among Stratfor and Dow employees and others, according to WikiLeaks. The company was worried about activism on the 25th anniversary of the 1984 Bhopal disaster.

????? Perhaps most striking, at least for Statfor itself, is the revelation that the company was planning to create a fund, called StratCap, through which it would trade on intelligence information it gathered. An email purportedly written by George Friedman, Stratfor's founder and chairman, said the fund "would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about the world in a new but related venue -- an investment fund. Where we had previously advised other hedge funds, we would now have our own…" Involved in that discussion was Shea Morenz, then with Goldman Sachs (GS). Friedman wrote, according to WikiLeaks, "What StratCap will do is use our intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currencies and the like." Morenz invested, according to the email, "substantially" more than $4 million.