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戴爾困局

戴爾困局

Kevin Kelleher 2012-04-11
五年前,創(chuàng)始人邁克爾?戴爾重掌公司大權(quán);五年后,他已做好準(zhǔn)備,再次出擊。但未來數(shù)月公司發(fā)展走勢如何存在很大的不確定性,戴爾在高端個人電腦、云計算以及服務(wù)等新的增長領(lǐng)域表現(xiàn)如何將至關(guān)重要。

????戴爾還通過努力推進(jìn)高端XPS系列筆記本來彌補(bǔ)其低端筆記本業(yè)務(wù)的下滑。今年年底,微軟公司將要推出Windows 8,可能也會刺激對新型個人電腦和筆記本的需求,尤其是希望升級換代、采用新版操作軟件的公司客戶。

????戴爾公司還重點開發(fā)了企業(yè)和政府客戶,以此來彌補(bǔ)個人電腦銷售額的下跌。企業(yè)和政府銷售額占到總額的80%。戴爾在大公司銷售方面取得了成功。個人消費(fèi)者銷售額占總收入的比例從兩年前的23%下降到了19%,而大公司銷售額的比例從兩年前的27%上升到了30%。大公司銷售的利潤更高,營業(yè)利潤可達(dá)銷售額的10%,而消費(fèi)者銷售營業(yè)利潤只有2.7%。

????因此,戴爾公司的總收益在過去數(shù)年內(nèi)增長了17%。同期營業(yè)利潤也從4.1%上升至7.1%。而戴爾公司股票的市盈率仍然僅為7.7,僅為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500市盈率14.8的一半。

????因此,戴爾未來仍然面臨挑戰(zhàn),投資者們依然不敢對戴爾前景過于樂觀。其中一個原因是,中國公司開始在低端服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域展開有力競爭,而這正是戴爾的增長領(lǐng)域。同時,支持高端筆記本的英特爾(Intel)Ivy Bridge芯片又將推遲發(fā)布時間。

????盡管杰富瑞投行(Jefferies & Co.)分析師皮特?米塞克表示,把業(yè)績不佳歸咎于泰國洪災(zāi)的說法實際上是“掩飾需求減緩趨勢的障眼法”,比如iPad人氣日益高漲帶來的影響。但去年的洪災(zāi)確實嚴(yán)重影響了硬盤驅(qū)動器的供應(yīng)。Windows 8在平板電腦上的運(yùn)行能力進(jìn)一步推高了個人電腦的售價,甚至個人電腦所用的配件價格也在緩步走高。

????這些憂慮最近幾周對戴爾的股票構(gòu)成了壓力,導(dǎo)致其股價從2月份的高點下跌了10%。戴爾的轉(zhuǎn)型用了近五年的時間才剛剛開始贏得投資者的初步支持。它至少還需要幾個月時間來順利度過仍屬于公司核心的個人電腦業(yè)務(wù)難關(guān)。如果戴爾能經(jīng)受住考驗,它的二次出擊可能會相當(dāng)強(qiáng)勁。

????譯者:李玫曉/汪皓

????The company also managed to offset declines in its lower end laptops by pushing harder on its higher-end XPS line of notebooks. And the arrival of Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 8 later this year will likely trigger a demand for new PCs and laptops, especially as companies upgrade to new the operating software.

????Dell has also fought off a decline in consumer sales by focusing on businesses and governments, which make up 80% of its sales. Dell has had success in selling to big companies. Sales to consumers fell to 19% of its total revenue last year from 23% two years ago. But sales to big companies rose to 30% of total revenue from 27% in the same period. Those big-company sales lead to higher margins: Operating profit in that segment were equal to 10% of its sales, while the operating profit from the consumer segment was 2.7%.

????As a result, Dell's total revenue grew by 17% over the past few years and its operating margin increased from 4.1% to 7.1% in the same period. The stock, however, still trades at only 7.7 times its earnings, about half of the 14.8 P/E for the S&P 500.

????For all that, Dell has some challenges ahead that are keeping investors from feeling too bullish. For one, Chinese companies are starting to get aggressive in the low-end servers that has been an area of growth for Dell. Intel's (INTC) Ivy Bridge chip, which powers higher-end laptops, is facing a delay.

????And the flooding in Thailand late last year disrupted the supply of hard disk drives, although one analyst, Jefferies & Co.'s Peter Misek, has said he thinks that all the talk about Thai floods is really "a smokescreen to mask underlying slower demand trends," such as the increasing popularity of iPads. The ability of Windows 8 to run on tablets could also pressure PC prices further, even as the components used to make PCs inch higher.

????Those concerns have weighed on Dell's stock in recent weeks, causing it to drop 10% from its February high. Dell's turnaround has taken nearly five years to start winning over investors. It has at least a few more months of hazards to navigate in the PC business still at its core. But if it can weather them, the company's second act could be a strong one.

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