????亞馬遜（Amazon）此前的利潤(rùn)率一直不高，現(xiàn)在，這家公司能否證明其長(zhǎng)期策略將給它帶來回報(bào)？如果它新鮮出爐的本季財(cái)報(bào)多少能夠說明些問題，那我們就有充分的理由相信回報(bào)即將到來。

????2012年第一財(cái)季，亞馬遜取得132億美元營(yíng)收，運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)為1.92億美元。兩項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)均輕松超出了華爾街預(yù)期。華爾街此前預(yù)計(jì)亞馬遜上財(cái)季營(yíng)收將低于130億美元，而運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)為1.86億美元。出乎預(yù)料的業(yè)績(jī)推動(dòng)亞馬遜股票在盤后交易中大漲了14%。投資機(jī)構(gòu)ThinkEquity的分析師羅納德?約賽稱：“（亞馬遜）營(yíng)收超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期——不是說達(dá)到了收入指引中預(yù)測(cè)的較高值——而是完全超出了所有人的預(yù)期。更為重要的是，亞馬遜的運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)讓絕大部分析師都大跌眼鏡?！?/p>

????亞馬遜的最新財(cái)報(bào)反映了該公司的積極變化。2011年第四財(cái)季，亞馬遜并未達(dá)到分析師預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致其股價(jià)隨后暴跌了9%。而縱觀2011年全年，亞馬遜凈利潤(rùn)從2010年的14億美元暴跌至6.31億美元，市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂隨之而來。亞馬遜業(yè)績(jī)告急很大程度是因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)新交付中心的投資，以及Kindle Fire平板電腦等硬件產(chǎn)品的銷售。尤其是Kindle Fire，分析人士普遍認(rèn)為它是亞馬遜虧錢的根源所在。

????亞馬遜現(xiàn)在的情形并不陌生。投資公司Caris & Company的分析師斯科特?蒂爾曼對(duì)路透社（Reuters）稱：“我們現(xiàn)在所看到的情況和2004年到2006年期間的情形很相似。亞馬遜當(dāng)時(shí)進(jìn)行了大量投資，結(jié)果導(dǎo)致利潤(rùn)收窄。但在隨后的數(shù)年，亞馬遜的利潤(rùn)率開始增長(zhǎng)，而營(yíng)收也隨之發(fā)力。鑒于亞馬遜目前的規(guī)模，我們也許不會(huì)再看到其營(yíng)收出現(xiàn)當(dāng)時(shí)那樣的大幅增長(zhǎng)，但目前看來，亞馬遜有能力提高利潤(rùn)率?！?/p>

????根據(jù)昨天發(fā)布的營(yíng)收?qǐng)?bào)告，許多分析師認(rèn)為亞馬遜高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的數(shù)字戰(zhàn)略正在奏效，而且最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，亞馬遜媒體業(yè)務(wù)正在增長(zhǎng)，表明用戶（包括新的Kindle Fire用戶）所購買的電子書、電影和電視節(jié)目數(shù)量正在增長(zhǎng)。另一方面，調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)康姆斯科（comScore）最近發(fā)布報(bào)告指出，Kindle Fire目前占據(jù)了美國(guó)Android平板電腦市場(chǎng)54%的份額。亞馬遜首席財(cái)務(wù)官湯姆?斯庫達(dá)在營(yíng)收電話會(huì)議上對(duì)分析師說：“消費(fèi)者正在大量購買內(nèi)容?？梢钥吹?，這一趨勢(shì)有增無減?！?/p>

????然而，并沒人預(yù)計(jì)亞馬遜慘淡的利潤(rùn)率能在未來幾月就會(huì)顯著改觀。高盛投資（Goldman Sachs）的分析師預(yù)計(jì)，在2012年剩下的時(shí)間里，亞馬遜將繼續(xù)瘋狂投資交付中心、新技術(shù)、內(nèi)容，同時(shí)擴(kuò)充Kindle產(chǎn)品線。至少從今年來看，亞馬遜要興建13個(gè)交付中心。根據(jù)約賽的說法，這些交付中心一般需要兩到三年才能達(dá)到預(yù)期的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)水平，也就是說，至少要兩到三年，它們才能提高亞馬遜的利潤(rùn)率，而不是拖后腿。換句話說，今年所修建的大型倉庫一直要到2014年才會(huì)對(duì)亞馬遜的利潤(rùn)帶來積極的實(shí)質(zhì)性影響。

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????Can Amazon, which has long relied on low profit margins, prove its long-term strategy will pay off? If its latest quarterly earnings are any indication, there's certainly a good deal of reason to think so.

????In the first quarter, revenues were $13.2 billion with operating income of $192 million. Both figures easily trumped Wall Street's predictions of less than $13 billion in revenues and operating income of just $186 million. The surprise sent shares up 14% after-hours. "Revenues came in higher than expectations -- not at the higher end of guidance -- but even better than what people thought," says ThinkEquity analyst Ronald Josey. "More importantly, their operating income blew away most people's expectations."

????Amazon's (AMZN) latest earnings reflect a positive turn. In the fourth quarter 2011, the company missed estimates, which was initially met by a 9% drop in shares. Concerns also arose when Amazon's annual net income fell sharply from $1.4 billion in 2010 to $631 million in 2011. Much of that was due to Amazon's investment in new fulfillment centers, as well as hardware like the Kindle Fire tablet. In particular, the Fire is widely believed by analysts to be a device the company is losing money on.

????This isn't Amazon's first trip to the dance, though. "They are very similar to what we saw back in the 2004 to 2006 timeframe when the company was making a lot of investments and margins got squeezed," Caris & Company analyst Scott Tilghman told Reuters. "Then in the years following, margins expanded and revenue accelerated. ... We might not see quite as much of an acceleration on the revenue, given the size of the company, but it does look like they have the ability to generate the margins."

????In light of yesterday's earnings announcement, many analysts believe Amazon's risky digital strategy is working, and that the latest numbers indicating growth in the company's media business mean users -- including new Fire owners -- are buying more e-books, movies, and television shows. To wit, research firm comScore recently reported that the Fire now accounts for nearly 54% of all Android tablets in the U.S. "Customers are buying a lot of content," Amazon chief financial officer Tom Szkutak said during an earnings call with analysts. "You're seeing that accelerate."

????No one expects the firm's tight margins to fatten up in the coming months, however. Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect Amazon to continue robust investments in fulfillment, technology, content and expanding its Kindle line through the rest of 2012. At the very least, it remains on track to open 13 more fulfillment centers this year. According to Josey, it generally takes two or three years for those fulfillment centers to operate at expected efficiency levels and thus two or three years for them to boost Amazon's margins, rather than constrict them. In other words, the warehouses built this year likely won't have a positive, material impact on the company's bottom line until 2014.