????五月初，如果有外星人在美國奧蘭多的萬豪酒店（Marriott Hotel）登陸地球，他們可能會以為，黑莓就是地球上最先進(jìn)、最偉大的技術(shù)。因?yàn)檫@里到處都是黑莓“信徒”，狂按亮黑色智能手機(jī)的鍵盤。墻上懸掛著橫幅，頌揚(yáng)黑莓手機(jī)卓越的安全性能和“超快的”網(wǎng)絡(luò)瀏覽器。數(shù)千人正襟危坐，聽會議領(lǐng)袖動態(tài)研究公司CEO托斯滕?海因斯侃侃而談，揭開未來的面紗。

????然而，如果外星朋友們細(xì)心一點(diǎn)，很快就會發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們看到的并不是一個傳統(tǒng)的商業(yè)大會，而是RIM開發(fā)者大會——這些開發(fā)者都是頑固派中的頑固派。更糟糕的是，許多與會者口袋里都偷偷裝著蘋果（Apple）iPhone手機(jī)和谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）設(shè)備，活脫脫一副走私販的摸樣。海因斯做著枯燥的演說，而與會者在下面竊竊私語，表達(dá)自己的失望之情。他們肯定意識到，實(shí)際上，黑莓設(shè)備已經(jīng)不是行業(yè)的龍頭老大，而是在為了生存苦苦掙扎。

????RIM的悲慘經(jīng)歷像極了科幻小說。最初，RIM從加拿大的一潭死水發(fā)展成科技行業(yè)巨頭，短短幾年時間就確立了在智能手機(jī)市場的主導(dǎo)地位。在達(dá)沃斯和華盛頓特區(qū)，黑莓設(shè)備成為全球精英人士的必備工具，而對于在東京銀座（Ginza）購物的年輕人和舊金山的時髦人士來說，黑莓已經(jīng)成為身份地位的象征。三年前，RIM利潤增長率達(dá)到了驚人的84%，因此《財富》雜志（Fortune）將其評為全球增長最快的公司。然而時過境遷，經(jīng)過幾個月苦苦掙扎后，RIM本周宣布，公司已經(jīng)聘請了摩根大通（JPMorgan）和加拿大皇家投資銀行（RBC Capital）對其戰(zhàn)略方案進(jìn)行評估，差不多等于宣告我們所知道的那個RIM已經(jīng)走到頭了。昔日的龐然大物正在加速衰落。RIM到底發(fā)生了什么？

????形勢的變化讓人猝不及防，但其實(shí)RIM的衰落是一個長期的過程。與2008年最高點(diǎn)時相比，RIM公司的股價下跌了90%。iPhone面世至今已有5年時間，但RIM與其他手機(jī)制造商不同，至今仍然沒有推出拿的出手的競爭性產(chǎn)品。RIM一直拒絕承認(rèn)iPhone和安卓設(shè)備日益高漲的人氣，結(jié)果浪費(fèi)了寶貴的時間，同時，也失去了消費(fèi)者和開發(fā)者的支持。更糟糕的是，RIM無法再對IT經(jīng)理們施加任何限制，越來越多的IT經(jīng)理開始允許員工上班時攜帶自己喜歡的設(shè)備。

????直到現(xiàn)在，RIM的回應(yīng)仍是一成不變：黑莓10系統(tǒng)。由于新操作系統(tǒng)面世的日期一推再推，再好聽的話重復(fù)多了也成了空話。安裝黑莓10操作系統(tǒng)的設(shè)備預(yù)計在今年晚些時候才能上市。“這就像一列已經(jīng)出站的火車。惡魔已經(jīng)逃出生天，再想將他關(guān)回籠子已無可能，”麥克?阿布拉姆斯基說。阿布拉姆斯基曾擔(dān)任加拿大皇家投資銀行市場分析師，曾連續(xù)十多年關(guān)注RIM的發(fā)展情況。

????典型的救世主以及即將面世的黑莓10測試設(shè)備。

????If aliens had disembarked at Orlando's Marriott Hotel in early May, they would have probably thought the BlackBerry the latest and greatest technology on Earth. Everywhere, devotees tapped away at their glossy black smartphones' keyboards. Banners hanging on the walls extolled the Blackberry's superior security features and "amazingly fast" Internet browser. Thousands lined up to hear the confab's leader -- Research in Motion CEO Thorsten Heins -- unveil the future.

????Observant visitors might quickly have realized they didn't land at a typical business convention, though, but at a conference for RIM (RIMM) developers -- the diehard of the diehard. And, worse, that many of the attendees also had Apple (AAPL) iPhones and Google (GOOG) Android devices stashed in their pockets, like contraband. They might have even heard the whispers of disappointment ripple through the crowd in response to Heins' meager announcements. They would have surely realized that, in fact, the BlackBerry is not ascendant -- but that it is fighting for its life.

????RIM's woebegone story is the stuff of science-fiction epic. A technology juggernaut that emerged from a sleepy Canadian backwater, RIM came to dominate the smartphone industry in a few years. Its BlackBerry managed to become an indispensable tool of the global elite in Davos and Washington D.C. as well as a status symbol to tweens shopping Tokyo's Ginza and San Francisco hipsters alike. Just three years ago, Fortune named RIM the world's fastest growing company, as it expanded profits at a monster rate of 84%. But after months of increasingly dire struggle, RIM announced this week that it had engaged JPMorgan (JPM) and RBC Capital to "review" its strategic options, all but confirming that the end of RIM as we know it is finally at hand. The behemoth appears to be wasting away at time-lapse speed. What happened?

????The plunge seems precipitous, but the downfall has been a longtime coming. RIM's stock has plunged some 90% since its 2008 high. Five years have passed since the iPhone came out and, unlike most other phonemakers, RIM still doesn't have a viable competitor to sell. It wasted time denying the growing appeal of iPhones and Android devices, losing favor with consumers and developers in the meantime. Even worse, it no longer has a stranglehold on IT managers, a growing number of which are now letting employees bring their device of choice to work.

????Until now, RIM's response has been the same: BlackBerry 10. As delays of the new operating system piled up, the refrain began to ring hollow. Devices powered by BlackBerry 10 aren't expected out until later this year. "This is a train that's left the station," says Mike Abramsky, a former RBC Capital Markets analyst who spent over a decade covering RIM. "You just can't put that genie back in the bottle."

????A prototype savior. A test device of upcoming Blackberry 10 models.