????Facebook上市已有兩周多，在此期間，該公司市值縮水了30％，而我們?cè)絹?lái)越難以將此歸咎于Facebook首次公開(kāi)發(fā)行時(shí)在交易方面出現(xiàn)的小問(wèn)題。其上市后的表現(xiàn)令人失望，嚴(yán)重?fù)p害了Facebook這一品牌，其負(fù)面影響甚至超過(guò)了那些自Facebook誕生之初就困擾著該公司的有關(guān)用戶隱私權(quán)的爭(zhēng)議。

????當(dāng)然，股票市場(chǎng)總是浮躁的。而且，由于歐洲金融危機(jī)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性，今年春天顯得特別不穩(wěn)定。但是，不穩(wěn)定是一把雙刃劍：也許只需要一個(gè)滿堂紅季度，F(xiàn)acebook股票就可以像坐火箭一般，一下漲至其發(fā)行價(jià)38美元每股。

????現(xiàn)在最大的問(wèn)題不在于Facebook股票的發(fā)行定價(jià)有何問(wèn)題，而是Facebook能否實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，以挽回投資者們的信心。整個(gè)市場(chǎng)為此問(wèn)題展開(kāi)了激烈辯論，F(xiàn)acebook到底是只牛股還是熊股，兩大陣營(yíng)討論之激烈，就好像Facebook已經(jīng)被拆分成了兩家公司一樣。一方認(rèn)為Facebook的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)正在被大眾拋棄，它將和曾經(jīng)的MySpace一樣，面臨長(zhǎng)期而緩慢的滑坡。另一派則認(rèn)為Facebook是創(chuàng)新巨頭，雇傭了大量硅谷頂級(jí)人才，它將開(kāi)創(chuàng)我們未來(lái)的在線交流方式。

????這兩派之間的分歧可以從華爾街分析師在過(guò)去幾周給出的Facebook目標(biāo)股價(jià)看出來(lái)。周一，伯恩斯坦研究公司認(rèn)為Facebook的股價(jià)將進(jìn)一步下跌至每股25美元或是更低。而一周前，Wedbush證券公司則對(duì)Facebook的股票給出了每股44美元的目標(biāo)股價(jià)?；旧希鎸?shí)的股價(jià)在25美元到44美元之間。

????科技媒體對(duì)此的爭(zhēng)論更加激烈，主要圍繞著Facebook是否能保持其高速增長(zhǎng)速度，是否能從其現(xiàn)有用戶身上獲得更多收入，以及該公司如何才能在不疏遠(yuǎn)用戶的前提下從移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上賺錢。

????Facebook迄今的增長(zhǎng)令它成為了有史以來(lái)最成功的高科技公司之一，對(duì)于這一點(diǎn)，沒(méi)有人會(huì)否認(rèn)。Facebook的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于，其龐大的活躍用戶數(shù)——每月9.01億人，并且在繼續(xù)增加——使它成為自然壟斷，而且其用戶數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)在巴西和印度等發(fā)展中國(guó)家市場(chǎng)依然強(qiáng)勁。此外，來(lái)自支付等新領(lǐng)域的收入在第一季度增長(zhǎng)了近一倍。

????Facebook的劣勢(shì)則在于，在美國(guó)和英國(guó)等大市場(chǎng)中，其增長(zhǎng)微乎其微，而在北美和歐洲以外的地區(qū)，該公司從每位用戶身上獲得的收入要低得多，而且該公司從每月所有用戶身上獲得的收入數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)大幅放緩，即使在其最活躍用戶中也是如此。

????Facebook對(duì)移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)戰(zhàn)略的成功與否，將決定其是否能從用戶手中賺到更多錢。而這又將我們帶入另一場(chǎng)激烈辯論中。

????It's been more than two weeks since Facebook went public, and it's getting harder to blame the 30% drop in its market value on the trading glitch that marred its debut. Nothing, not even the many privacy controversies that have plagued Facebook's short history, has done more to damage the Facebook brand than its disappointing post-IPO performance.

????The stock market, of course, is a fickle environment. What's more, thanks to financial turmoil in Europe and economic uncertainty in China, it has been especially volatile this spring. But volatility is a two-edged blade: It could take only one blowout quarter from Facebook (FB) to send its stock rocketing back toward its $38 a share offering price.

????The big question now is not what went wrong with Facebook's offering, it is whether Facebook can deliver growth strong enough to win back the confidence of investors. And that question has created a robust debate between bulls and bears on Facebook's future, two camps in such sharp disagreement that it's almost as if Facebook were split into two companies. The first is Facebook the social network that is losing popularity and will face the long, slow decline that MySpace suffered. The second is Facebook the innovative giant that employs much of Silicon Valley's top talent and will be defining how we interact online for years to come.

????The disagreement can be seen in the price targets that Wall Street analysts have put on the stock in the past few weeks. On Monday, Bernstein Research saw Facebook sinking further, to $25 a share or below. A week earlier, Wedbush Securities gave the same stock a $44 a share target. Basically, the truth lies somewhere in that wide range.

????In the technology press, the debate has been even more spirited, centered primarily around whether Facebook can maintain its torrid growth rate, whether it can draw more revenue out of its existing members and how it can make money from the mobile web without alienating users.

????No one will deny that Facebook's growth to date makes it one of the most successful tech companies ever. The case for Facebook says that Facebook's active users -- 901 million per month and counting -- makes it a natural monopoly, and that growth is still strong in developing markets like Brazil and India. Plus, new areas revenue like payments nearly doubled in the first quarter.

????The case against Facebook counters that growth is negligible in large markets like the U.S. and the U.K., that its revenue per user is significantly lower outside of the North America and Europe and that the revenue it makes from all monthly users has seen its growth slow dramatically, even among its most active users.

????Whether Facebook can extract more money from its users will depend in good part on its strategy for the mobile web. Which brings us to another sharp area of debate.