????只有遭遇颶風(fēng)桑迪這樣級(jí)別的災(zāi)害之后,部分知名的政客才會(huì)開(kāi)始討論氣候變化的影響。在經(jīng)歷了這次造成嚴(yán)重人員傷亡以及大約500億美元財(cái)產(chǎn)損失的風(fēng)暴潮后，紐約州州長(zhǎng)安德魯?科莫表示，紐約州必須考慮圍繞紐約市建造一系列海堤——成本至少達(dá)到100億美元。在最近的一篇社論中，紐約市市長(zhǎng)邁克爾?布隆伯格重提很多氣候科學(xué)家和專家一直以來(lái)強(qiáng)調(diào)的觀點(diǎn)：現(xiàn)在要扭轉(zhuǎn)全球變暖的負(fù)面后果已經(jīng)來(lái)不及了；正如一位領(lǐng)先的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理告訴我的，我們最多能做的就是“適應(yīng)它”。

????這意味著改變自己：重新設(shè)計(jì)我們的港口，管理我們的海岸線，以及建設(shè)我們的建筑和交通系統(tǒng)從而限制更加頻繁和更具威力的颶風(fēng)所造成的損害。羅森茲威格是美國(guó)國(guó)家航空航天局戈達(dá)德空間研究中心（NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies）資深研究科學(xué)家，同時(shí)也是一個(gè)名為“紐約市應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化專門(mén)委員會(huì)”（New York City Panel on Climate Change）的咨詢委員會(huì)的聯(lián)席主席。他說(shuō)像雨水溝這么簡(jiǎn)單的東西經(jīng)設(shè)計(jì)后就可以用來(lái)將地鐵、鐵路和污水處理廠的淹水最小化。9.11之后，高盛集團(tuán)（Goldman Sachs）在設(shè)計(jì)其位于曼哈頓下城的新總部時(shí)，安裝了一套強(qiáng)大的發(fā)電機(jī)，盡管它所處的樓層非常高，足以避開(kāi)最近發(fā)生的洪水災(zāi)害。眾所周知，荷蘭人正面臨海平面上升的威脅，他們現(xiàn)在設(shè)計(jì)的公寓大廈可以抵御大量的水流進(jìn)出建筑的情況。

????除了重新考慮建設(shè)方式之外，我們還應(yīng)該重新考慮在哪里建設(shè)。聯(lián)邦洪水保險(xiǎn)（Federal flood insurance）補(bǔ)貼那些在颶風(fēng)襲擊后重建家園的屋主和企業(yè)主，這已經(jīng)耗費(fèi)了美國(guó)納稅人數(shù)十億美元。如果取消聯(lián)邦洪水保險(xiǎn)，私營(yíng)市場(chǎng)在制定保險(xiǎn)價(jià)格時(shí)將更加現(xiàn)實(shí)（因此也會(huì)更高），容易遭受襲擊的海岸線地區(qū)可能會(huì)因此遭遇發(fā)展方面的制約。

????最極端的補(bǔ)救辦法是建設(shè)水閘來(lái)防御風(fēng)暴潮。全球很多城市，包括倫敦、新加坡和鹿特丹，都建立了類似的水閘。紐約市可能非常需要建造自己的水閘，但是除了費(fèi)用高昂外，這些水閘還會(huì)帶來(lái)很多問(wèn)題。例如，工程師設(shè)計(jì)建筑的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)通常是能夠應(yīng)對(duì)百年一遇的災(zāi)害。根據(jù)美國(guó)宇航局的羅森茲威格，在紐約市巴特里公園（Battery Park）地區(qū)，8.6英尺高的洪水就被認(rèn)定為百年一遇。超級(jí)颶風(fēng)桑迪達(dá)到10.6英尺高，屬于500年一遇的級(jí)別。此外，建設(shè)海堤以保護(hù)曼哈頓僅僅可能將洪水引到這個(gè)城市其他未受保護(hù)的區(qū)域，加劇這些地區(qū)的災(zāi)害程度。而且，目前并不清楚這類水利工程會(huì)對(duì)本地區(qū)的漁業(yè)和河口產(chǎn)生什么環(huán)境影響。

????調(diào)整自己以適應(yīng)新的常態(tài)將耗費(fèi)全球企業(yè)和政府?dāng)?shù)千億美元的資金，但是與桑迪和卡特里娜等颶風(fēng)所造成的損害相比，這或許更為劃算。然而，這個(gè)問(wèn)題有光明的一面：準(zhǔn)備重新審視、重新建設(shè)我們脆弱的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)將會(huì)非常繁忙。

????翻譯：秋閑

????It took a disaster on the scale of Hurricane Sandy to finally get some high-profile politicians talking about the impact of climate change. In the wake of a heavy death toll and an estimated $50 billion in damage from the storm surge, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo argued that the state must consider building a series of seawalls around New York City -- at a cost of at least $10 billion. In a recent editorial, Mayor Michael Bloomberg echoed what many climate scientists and experts have been saying for some time now: It's too late to reverse the negative consequences of global warming; the best we can do, as one leading hedge fund manager told me, is "get used to it."

????This means adaptation: redesign our ports, manage our coastlines, and construct our buildings and transportation systems to limit the damage caused by more frequent and more powerful storms. Cynthia Rosenzweig, a senior research scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies who co-chairs an advisory board called the New York City Panel on Climate Change, says that something as simple as a storm drain could be engineered to minimize subway, rail, and sewage-treatment-plant flooding. After 9/11, Goldman Sachs (GS) designed its new headquarters in lower Manhattan with a set of powerful electrical generators on a floor high enough to be safe from the recent floodwaters. The Dutch, who know about living close to rising seas, are designing apartment towers that allow for massive water flow into, and out of, the structures.

????Besides rethinking how we build, we have to rethink where we build. Federal flood insurancesubsidizes home and business owners who rebuild after a storm, and that has cost U.S. taxpayers billions. By eliminating federal flood insurance, the private market will price policies more realistically (and thus higher), which would limit development along vulnerable coasts.

????The most extreme remedy would be to construct sea gates to ward off storm surges. Many cities around the world, including London, Singapore, and Rotterdam, have such gates. New York City may well need to build its own, but they present many problems besides their high cost. For example, engineers usually design a structure to handle a one-in-100-year event. According to NASA's Rosenzweig, in New York City's Battery Park neighborhood an 8.6-foot flood height is designated as a one-in-100-year event. Superstorm Sandy reached 10.6 feet -- a one-in-500-year event. Also, erecting seawalls to protect Manhattan could simply divert the surge to other unprotected areas of the city, exacerbating flooding in those boroughs. And it's unclear what the environmental impact of such maritime structures would be on the region's fisheries and estuaries.

????Adapting to the new normal will cost businesses and governments around the globe hundreds of billions, but that may be a bargain compared with the damage future Sandys and Katrinas cause. There is, however, a bright side: Business should be very good for those companies ready to rethink and rebuild our vulnerable infrastructure.