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第十六講:卓越公司為何倒下(2)

第十六講:卓越公司為何倒下(2)

《財富》(中文版) 2011-03-29
一個卓越的公司更可能由于機遇過多、消化不良而倒閉,而不是由于機會匱乏。

雙語訪談實錄:
Thomas D. Gorman: Now, stage two that you write about, the stage two of decline is undisciplined pursuit of more, and I love that combination of words.
What are the warning signs when a company is at that stage, what can they do about it, and what are the prospects of recovery from stage two of decline.

Jim Collins: Yep, yep.
I would imagine in a booming economy as you have, at least currently in China, the opportunities for more, are immense. Absolutely. Just awash in the potential for more. And I think what's really striking when you look at economic history at least of the rise and fall of great companies through the lenses that we've looked at. They're very good at saying no to opportunity, they're very good at saying no to growth, if it would lead them to be undisciplined, now let me sort of define that in three specific ways.
The first and I really believe, this is something that we'll talk about perhaps as the session goes on, but if there's a principal that I think might be close to a law of management. And we should always be skeptical of laws, but there maybe one law of management, at least one, and we named it Packard's Law which we named it after David Packard, the founder of HP who made an interesting observation. A great company is more likely to die of indigestion from too much opportunity, than of starvation from too little.
I imagine there are a lot of Chinese companies right now that have indigestion of opportunity. And the problem isn't lack of opportunity, they have indigestion. So, extending from that there's this idea of Packard's Law, which is, what is too far? How much is too much growth?
高德思:您所寫的衰落的第二階段,是毫無章法的業(yè)務(wù)擴張,我喜歡這個用詞。

當公司陷入該階段時,有哪些預(yù)警信號?有什么應(yīng)對方法?從第二階段中恢復(fù)的希望有多大?



吉姆·柯林斯:好的,好的。

我能想象,在一個欣欣向榮的市場中擴張業(yè)務(wù)的機會是巨大的。起碼在目前的中國是這樣。的確如此。(這些公司)完全沉浸在擴張的機會中。但是,從剛才的角度看那些卓越公司起起落落的發(fā)展歷程時,我們驚訝地發(fā)現(xiàn),當機遇和增長可能令其亂了章法的時候,這些公司很善于拒絕機遇、拒絕增長的誘惑。現(xiàn)在我就通過三個層面來定義這個現(xiàn)象。

我要談的第一點很重要,我們在后面的訪談中肯定會再次涉及。雖然我們都不應(yīng)該墨守成規(guī),但是有一種規(guī)則是接近管理法則的,那就是帕卡德法則(Packard's Law),因惠普公司創(chuàng)始人大衛(wèi)?帕卡德而得名。大衛(wèi)?帕卡德觀察到了一個很有意思的現(xiàn)象:他發(fā)現(xiàn)卓越的公司最終衰敗的原因更有可能源自過多的、消化不了的機遇,而不是因為機會匱乏。

我猜測中國企業(yè)現(xiàn)在可能存在對商業(yè)機會消化不良的問題。問題往往的確在于消化不良,而不在于缺少機會。所以,從帕卡德法則延伸出來一個問題,什么是合適的尺度?多少增長算是過度增長?
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