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專欄 - 從華爾街到硅谷

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)無泡沫?你錯(cuò)了!

Dan Primack 2011年08月15日

Dan Primack專注于報(bào)道交易和交易撮合者,從美國(guó)金融業(yè)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)均有涉及。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù)。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國(guó)馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營(yíng)一份社區(qū)報(bào)紙。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
有兩種泡沫:經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫和心理泡沫。最近的住房泡沫就是典型的經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫,而17世紀(jì)30年代的郁金香泡沫則屬于典型的心理泡沫。眼下的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫屬于經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫。

????近4年前,微軟公司(Microsoft)以150億美元的估價(jià),向Facebook注資2.4億美元。我相信這是人們首次開始公開擔(dān)心新一輪互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的到來,此后這種擔(dān)心逐漸蔓延開來并達(dá)至最高點(diǎn)。但直到最近市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)動(dòng)蕩之前,此類擔(dān)憂被認(rèn)為是不明智的,往壞里說就是愚蠢的。

????對(duì)于拒絕承認(rèn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的人而言,這段時(shí)間是他們“揚(yáng)眉吐氣”的大好時(shí)光。在這些人中,最能言善辯且頑固不化的要數(shù)科技博客TechCrunch的薩拉?蕾茜。上周二,她又在一篇題為《好消息!從未膨脹過的泡沫破滅了》(Good News! The Bubble that Never Inflated Has Popped)的博文中對(duì)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫論發(fā)起猛烈攻擊。

????我喜歡薩拉,但她的觀點(diǎn)大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò)了。她不僅錯(cuò)在拒絕承認(rèn)存在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫,更錯(cuò)在對(duì)泡沫后果的判斷上。

????首先,我得聲明,我寫此文的本意既非要做事后諸葛亮,也不是要顯擺我明察秋毫,沒有漏掉任何重要的市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)。換言之,就是有可能成為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫論的彼得?謝夫(美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、作家、商人及金融評(píng)論家,一貫唱空美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)——譯注),我也不在乎。此外,就此事來說,我也并非獨(dú)行俠。

????我之所以在意這件事,是因?yàn)樗信菽罱K都會(huì)破滅(或者至少會(huì)癟掉),隨后引發(fā)的混亂會(huì)傷及人們的利益。最初引發(fā)通貨膨脹的人需要迅速認(rèn)清自己的所作所為,承擔(dān)責(zé)任,確保這類泡沫不會(huì)繼續(xù)膨脹。

????蕾茜認(rèn)為有兩種泡沫:經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫和心理泡沫。最近的住房泡沫就是典型的經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫,而17世紀(jì)30年代的郁金香泡沫則屬于典型的心理泡沫。她還分析說,這二者之間的主要分別在于其產(chǎn)生的影響不同。她認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫會(huì)切實(shí)引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。而心理泡沫由于腐蝕了社會(huì)信心,會(huì)影響到人們未來的行為模式。因此,上世紀(jì)90年代的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫同時(shí)帶有二者的味道。

????按照這一理論,我認(rèn)為,眼下的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫屬于經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫。因?yàn)樗允贾两K屬于私有市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)象,而遠(yuǎn)非公共市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)象。具體而言,靠風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本支持的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司以過高的估價(jià)獲得了太多的資金。這種做法必然導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。以下是一些數(shù)據(jù):

????律師事務(wù)所Fenwick & West的報(bào)告顯示,2010年第四季度,硅谷的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融資估價(jià)增長(zhǎng)了61%。這是該公司的監(jiān)測(cè)報(bào)告連續(xù)第六個(gè)季度顯示,硅谷的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融資平均估價(jià)呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)之勢(shì);2010年第三季度增長(zhǎng)了28%。

????湯森路透社(Thomson Reuters)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,自2007年以來,美國(guó)IT領(lǐng)域的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本交易的投資前估值翻了一番還多。

????搖錢樹報(bào)告【MoneyTree reports:根據(jù)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)普華永道和美國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資協(xié)會(huì)(NVCA)基于分析Thomson Reuters數(shù)據(jù)庫生成的投資報(bào)告——譯注】顯示,自2000年第四季度以來,按美元計(jì)算,“專注于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)”的公司在2011年第二季度融到的首輪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本創(chuàng)下了最高值。

????如果只是當(dāng)作奇聞趣事來聽,在早期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資圈里,幾乎所有的人都說,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司估價(jià)一直在瘋狂地飆升,即將失控。就在前幾天,我曾引用阿倫?帕特里科夫(美國(guó)投資家——譯注)的話說:“許多半年或一年前定價(jià)僅為200萬美元的早期交易,現(xiàn)在其投資前價(jià)格已飛漲至700美元?!绷硪晃伙L(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本家最近給我看了一張冰球桿圖表(a hockey-stick chart:某一數(shù)據(jù)在長(zhǎng)時(shí)間持平后突然直線飆升,與橫軸形成了一個(gè)接近90度的夾角,形似一個(gè)直立的冰球桿——譯注),我開始還以為它反映的是一家初創(chuàng)公司的營(yíng)業(yè)收入,但他告訴我說,該圖實(shí)際上記錄的是他的投資機(jī)構(gòu)一直以來支付的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)交易的平均價(jià)格。

????

????Nearly four years ago, Microsoft (MSFT) invested $240 million in Facebook at a valuation of $15 billion. I'm pretty sure that's the first time people began publicly worrying about another Internet bubble, and it's been a slowly crescendoing chorus ever since. Well, until the recent market tumult seemed to render such concerns uncouth at best and asinine at worst.

????That means it's salad days for Internet bubble deniers, the most eloquent and persistent of whom has been TechCrunch's Sarah Lacy. Her latest salvo came Tuesday, in a post titled: Good News! The Bubble that Never Inflated Has Popped.

????I like Sarah, but she's dead wrong on this. Not only about the bubble's existence, but also about its consequences.

????First, let me be clear that my intent isn't future vindication. Or relief that I didn't overlook a major market trend. In other words, I could care less about becoming the Internet bubble's Peter Schiff. Moreover, it's not exactly like I'm a lone wolf on this.

????Instead, I care because all bubbles ultimately pop (or at least deflate) -- and people get hurt in the resulting mess. Those responsible for the original inflation need to quickly recognize what they've done, own it and be sure to stop perpetuating it.

????Lacy argues that there are two types of bubbles: Economic and psychological. The recent housing bubble was an example of the former, while the tulip bubble of the 1630's was an example of the latter. The primary difference, she argues, is the type of impact. Economic bubbles, she says, cause actual pocketbook pain. Psychological ones, on the other hand, impact future behavior by eroding at societal trust. The 1990s Internet bubble, therefore, was a little bit of both.

????Adopting this dichotomy, I believe that the current Internet bubble is economic. It has been a private market phenomenon much more than a public market one. Specifically, too much money has gone into VC-backed Internet companies at too high a valuation, which will result in some economic hardships. Some data:

????? Law firm Fenwick & West reports that valuations for Silicon Valley venture financings rose 61% in Q4 2010. This was the sixth straight quarter in which their barometer showed an average valuation increase, including a 28% bump the prior quarter.

????? Thomson Reuters data indicates that pre-money valuations for VC deals in the U.S. tech sector have more than doubled since 2007.

????? MoneyTree reports that "Internet-specific" companies raised more first-round VC dollars in Q2 2011 than in any other quarter since Q4 2000.

????From a more anecdotal perspective, it's hard to find an early-stage VC who won't tell you Internet company valuations have been spiraling out of control. Just the other day, I quoted Alan Patricof as saying: "A lot of earlier-stage deals that would have been priced at $2 million six or twelve months ago have risen to $7 million pre-money." Another recently showed me a hockey-stick chart that I first thought was a startup's projected revenue, before he told me it was the average prices his firm had been paying for Internet deals.

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