未來屬于智能手機(jī)
點(diǎn)此放大，圖片來源：Asymco
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????最近，數(shù)碼產(chǎn)業(yè)分析公司ComScore發(fā)布了2011年7月份美國智能手機(jī)數(shù)據(jù)。市場(chǎng)情報(bào)分析公司Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪歐的任務(wù)完成得一如既往的漂亮，他再次將這些數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)換成為一目了然而又內(nèi)涵深刻的圖表。 ????從德迪歐于上周四發(fā)布的三幅圖表，我們可以看出以下三方面的內(nèi)容： ????1.智能手機(jī)未來的增長空間。 ????2.蘋果（Apple）iPhone和谷歌（Google）Android排擠競(jìng)爭對(duì)手的成度。 ????3.微軟（Microsoft）重返智能手機(jī)舞臺(tái)的重重困難。 ????我非常喜歡這些圖表，因?yàn)樗芙o予你直觀印象——美國手機(jī)市場(chǎng)究竟有多大？智能手機(jī)制造商究竟還有多少增長空間？ ????在Asymco網(wǎng)站的主頁上，讀者可以找到另外兩幅圖表，就在德迪歐名為《第三大智能手機(jī)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)：勝算幾何？》（The third smartphone ecosystem: What are the odds）的文章里。 ????第三大生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，當(dāng)然非微軟Windows Phone 7莫屬。不少分析人士認(rèn)為它能搶占上圖天空位置藍(lán)色部分（指功能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)——譯注）的最大份額。 ????但德迪歐對(duì)此持懷疑態(tài)度。他在文中稱： ????過去一年，Android在美國獲得了2,500萬用戶；iPhone獲得了950萬用戶；黑莓（Blackberry）和微軟則分別流失了320萬和160萬用戶。其它平臺(tái)則總計(jì)流失120萬用戶。 ????整個(gè)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)用戶合計(jì)凈增長290萬。 ????從2010年10月開始，黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商RIM從用戶持續(xù)凈增長轉(zhuǎn)為用戶持續(xù)凈流失。雖然Windows Phone在保住用戶基數(shù)，避免用戶流失方面做得不錯(cuò)，但其市場(chǎng)份額持續(xù)低于5%。（目前為4.7%，上個(gè)月為4.6%）。 ????讓我們換個(gè)角度看看微軟面臨的艱難險(xiǎn)阻，在美國市場(chǎng)，Android和iPhone的市場(chǎng)保有量目前分別為Windows Phone 7的7倍和5倍。如果一些分析師的預(yù)測(cè)成真，Windows Phone 7未來將成為美國最大的移動(dòng)平臺(tái)，那么微軟必須面對(duì)12：1的巨大差距，而且這一差距看來還在不斷擴(kuò)大。 ????微軟成功的幾率非常低。 ????除了這些吸引眼球的圖表，德迪歐在Asymco博客主持的討論也非常棒，質(zhì)量很高。到上周五早上，德迪歐的文章已獲得62條評(píng)論。讀者可以點(diǎn)擊鏈接發(fā)表高見。 ????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
????ComScore released its July 2011 U.S. smartphone data this week and as usual Asymco's Horace Dediu has done the best job of turning the numbers into striking -- and insightful -- graphics. ????On Thursday he released three charts that show: ????1. The scale of the opportunity for further smartphone growth ????2. The extent to which Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android are squeezing out the competition ????3. The challenge Microsoft (MSFT) faces as it tries to get back into the game ????I'm particularly fond of the chart at right because it gives you a sense of how large the U.S. cell phone market really is and how much room for growth it offers smartphone manufacturers. ????You can see the other two charts at the Asmyco entry Dediu has titled The third smartphone ecosystem: What are the odds? ????The third ecosystem, of course, is Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, which many analysts believe could capture the lion's share of the blue sky in the graph above. ????Dediu is skeptical. He writes: ????In the last 12 months, Android gained 25 million users in the US. iPhone gained 9.5 million while Blackberry lost 3.2 million and Microsoft lost 1.6 million. Other platforms had a net loss of 1.2 million. ????The total net gain of smartphones was about 29 million new users. ????RIM switched from being a consistent net gainer of users to a consistent net loser of users in October 2010. Windows Phone is showing signs of holding the line on user base erosion but share remains below 5% (now at 4.7% vs. 4.6% last month). ????To put the mountain-sized hurdle in perspective, Android now has 7 times more users in the US while iPhone has about 5 times more. To become the largest mobile platform in the US, as some analysts are predicting, Microsoft has a 12:1 disadvantage that looks to continue to grow. ????Those are some pretty tough odds. ????One of the great things about Dediu's Asymco blog, besides the eye-catching graphics, is the quality of the discussion he moderates. As of Friday morning, this post had generated 62 comments. You can add yours here. |
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