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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果請柬暗藏玄機(jī):新推iPhone可能只有一款

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年09月29日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
蘋果觀察者們正努力揣摩蘋果下周特別活動邀請函中的深意。

來源:蘋果公司

????假如有人認(rèn)為——周二很多人都是這么看的——蘋果(Apple)邀請函的圖標(biāo)用心良苦,一如蘋果對電腦屏幕圖標(biāo)的態(tài)度一樣。果真如此,那么他們應(yīng)該可從蘋果發(fā)給指定媒體的郵件中推導(dǎo)出若干結(jié)論。這封郵件的主題是“我們來談?wù)刬Phone”

????前三個(gè)圖標(biāo)的意思很明顯:蘋果將于10月4日上午10時(shí)在其公司總部舉行一場活動。如果與會者駕車從舊金山出發(fā),應(yīng)該走280號路。(假如對此還有任何懷疑,邀請函的文字部分也是這么介紹的。)

????不過邀請函還另有文章。投資銀行Piper Jafray的吉恩?明斯特認(rèn)為:“讓我們談?wù)劇边@句話并不太隱晦地暗示,蘋果將發(fā)布升級版語音識別技術(shù)。18個(gè)月前蘋果將語音識別公司Siri收入囊中,此后就一直在從事該技術(shù)開發(fā)。部分業(yè)內(nèi)人士之前預(yù)計(jì)蘋果會在今年6月的全球開發(fā)者大會(WWDC)上將其公之于眾。

????明斯特在致客戶的報(bào)告中稱:“過去,蘋果會在邀請函中使用一些晦澀難懂的暗示告訴大家將發(fā)布哪些內(nèi)容。今年邀請函上‘讓我們談?wù)刬Phone’這句話可能就是個(gè)簡單的雙關(guān)句,不過它也同樣可能暗示新iPhone中將搭載新的語音功能?!?/p>

????更費(fèi)思量的是“iPhone”這個(gè)單詞采用了單數(shù)形式,而且電話圖標(biāo)上還有一個(gè)阿拉伯?dāng)?shù)字1。著名科技博客寫手約翰?格魯伯在其博客Daring Fireball上撰文指出,“有跡象表明到時(shí)后可能只會推出一款新的iPhone?!泵魉固赝瑯诱J(rèn)為如此,盡管兩人的推導(dǎo)思路也許有些不同。明斯特表示:

????我們認(rèn)為蘋果不會推出低端iPhone。部分投資者一直期待蘋果發(fā)布低端iPhone,以低于300美元的價(jià)格賣給運(yùn)營商,而目前運(yùn)營商此項(xiàng)成本超過600美元。這樣一來,運(yùn)營商將能夠提供價(jià)格實(shí)惠的無補(bǔ)貼iPhone,進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)對價(jià)格敏感型市場的滲透。然而,我們認(rèn)為蘋果在10月4日的發(fā)布會上不會推出這樣一款設(shè)備。相反,我們推測蘋果將繼續(xù)推出領(lǐng)先設(shè)備(iPhone 5),運(yùn)營商將以199或299美元的補(bǔ)貼價(jià)格出售該設(shè)備,同時(shí)以99美元的補(bǔ)貼價(jià)格出售上一代iPhone(iPhone 4或者iPhone 4S)。

????無論如何,我們下周二都將趕赴庫比提諾(蘋果總部所在地——譯注),在蘋果的大禮堂內(nèi)用博客現(xiàn)場播報(bào)該活動進(jìn)程,當(dāng)然前提是可以無線上網(wǎng)。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????If one assumes -- as many were on Tuesday -- that Apple (AAPL) puts as much thought into the iconography of its invitations as it does into the icons on its computer screens, there are several conclusions one could draw from the "Let's talk iPhone" e-mail sent to selected member of the media.

????The meaning of first three icons is pretty clear: Apple is holding an event at 10 a.m. Oct. 4 at its corporate headquarters, and if you're driving from San Francisco, 280 is the route to take. (If there were any doubt about this, the text of the invitation says as much.)

????But there's more. Piper Jafray's Gene Munster takes the "let's talk" tag line as a not-so-subtle hint that Apple will finally be delivering the voice-recognition advances it's been working on since it acquired Siri nearly 18 months ago -- advances some expected to be announced at WWDC 2011 in June.

????"In the past," Munster writes in a note to clients, "Apple has used its invitation to include cryptic hints as to what it will announce. The phrase on this year's invite, 'Let's talk iPhone' may be a simple play on words, but may also refer to new speech-based features for the iPhone."

????Even more cryptic is the use of the singular "iPhone" and the red number 1 in the telephone icon. "Something tells me there's only one new iPhone," posted John Gruber on his Daring Fireball blog. Munster came to the same conclusion, although perhaps by a different route. He writes:

????We Do Not Expect a Low-End iPhone. Some investors are looking for Apple to announce a low-end iPhone that Apple could sell to carriers for less than $300 vs. the current carrier cost of over $600. This would enable carriers to offer affordable, unsubsidized iPhones and further penetrate more price-sensitive markets. However, we do not expect Apple to announce such a device on 10/4. Rather, we expect Apple to continue with a lead device (iPhone 5) that carriers sell subsidized for $199/ $299 along with a previous generation device (iPhone 4 or iPhone 4S) for $99.

????In any event, we'll be in Cupertino next Tuesday, live-blogging the proceedings from Apple's Town Hall Auditorium, the gods of Wi-Fi permitting.

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