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????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂通過一系列經(jīng)過精心研究的圖表發(fā)現(xiàn)，在其它條件都相同的情況下，真正拉動智能手機(jī)銷量的一個因素是：銷售手機(jī)的無線運(yùn)營商數(shù)目。 ????休伯蒂分在上周日致客戶的報告中享了對225個國家760家運(yùn)營商2007年到2011年之間的數(shù)據(jù)分析結(jié)果。過去5年，總體用戶數(shù)年增長率為17%，其中與現(xiàn)有運(yùn)營商簽約的新用戶同與新運(yùn)營商簽約的用戶數(shù)量大致相當(dāng)。 ????休伯蒂稱，這在很大程度上與蘋果（Apple）iPhone的情況相符。iPhone從2007年的一家運(yùn)營商——美國電話電報公司（AT&T）——增長到如今的105個國家230家運(yùn)營商。（見上圖所示。） ????雖然如此，但蘋果的簽約運(yùn)營商數(shù)量仍然落后于競爭對手。比如黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商RIM，在休伯蒂所列舉的760家運(yùn)營商中，79%已和黑莓（Blackberry）簽約，而其中僅有30%是iPhone運(yùn)營商。 ????休伯蒂認(rèn)為iPhone最大的增長點將來自亞洲（蒂姆?庫克也贊同這種觀點），一方面由于亞洲擁有龐大的人口；另一方面是許多消費者沒有購買iPhone的渠道，因為所在地的運(yùn)營商還未有發(fā)售計劃。參見下面的圖表。 |
????In a series of well-researched charts, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has put her finger on the one factor -- all others being equal -- that really drives smartphone sales: The number of cell phone operators that sell the thing. ????In a report issued to clients Sunday, Huberty shared the results of an analysis of 760 carriers in 225 countries from 2007 to 2001. Over the past five years, the growth in total subscribers per year (17%) was split roughly 50/50 between new subscribers on existing carriers and subscribers signed up on new carriers. ????This holds true in spades, Huberty suggests, for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, which since 2007 has gone from one carrier -- AT&T (T) -- to nearly 230 carriers in 105 countries. (See chart above.) ????Despite those carrier agreements, Apple still trails its competitors. Research in Motion (RIMM), for example, has deals for the BlackBerry with 79% of the 760 operators Huberty identified. Only 30% carry the iPhone. ????The biggest opportunity for growth, according to Huberty (and, for that matter, Tim Cook) is in Asia, both in terms of total population and in terms of the number of subscribers who don't have access to the iPhone because their cellular provider doesn't sell it. See the charts below: |
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????下面一幅圖表的數(shù)據(jù)同樣對iPhone這樣定價相對較高的手機(jī)有利：在新興市場，購買補(bǔ)貼手機(jī)的用戶數(shù)量（即所謂后付費補(bǔ)貼計劃）最近已經(jīng)超過全額預(yù)付款購買廉價智能手機(jī)的用戶數(shù)（被稱為預(yù)付費手機(jī)）。 |
????One last chart that also works in favor of cellphones, like the iPhone, with a relatively high sticker price: The growth in the number of subscribers in emerging markets who buy subsidized cellphones (in so-called post-paid plans) has recently overtaken those who prefer to pay full price for cheap cellphones at the time of purchase (so-called pre-paid phones). |
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