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????上周三晚些時候，凱蒂?休伯蒂在一份向客戶提交的報告中稱，由AlphaWise在感恩節(jié)后的一周為摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）所做的美國消費(fèi)者調(diào)研中充滿了令人驚喜的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

????? iPhone正在大賣，勢頭令人驚訝。基于本次調(diào)研和上周由美國電話電報公司（AT&T）發(fā)布的評論，休伯蒂估測，本財季蘋果公司（Apple）iPhone的出貨量將在3,100萬到3,600萬部之間——這比她自己通過建模估算的3,000萬部要高出20%，比華爾街估測的2,800萬臺要高出近30%。

????? 對iPhone的需求正在加速增長。休伯蒂寫道：“令人驚訝的是，美國消費(fèi)者在2012年第1財季的iPhone購買量預(yù)計將比2011年第4財季更多。（著重處為分析師本人所加）”。即便將該調(diào)研的結(jié)果打折10%，這也意味著下一財季蘋果公司將在美國售出1,300萬部iPhone，在全球售出4,100萬部。而摩根士丹利公司通過建模估測，蘋果將在2012年第1財季售出3,000萬部iPhone。

????? “也許最令人驚訝的是，”對平板電腦的需求毫無減弱的跡象。據(jù)該調(diào)研稱，目前只有8%的美國消費(fèi)者擁有一臺平板電腦，但是27%的人計劃購買一臺。按照休伯蒂的估測，如果蘋果“適度地”將4%的市場份額拱手讓給亞馬遜公司（Amazon）的Kindle Fire，蘋果明年將在全球售出8,100萬臺iPad。而摩根士丹利公司建模估測的結(jié)果是，2012年蘋果將僅能售出5,200萬臺iPad，其中在美國的銷量約為2,000萬臺，美國之外約為3,200萬臺。

????? 如果降價100美元，蘋果將能多售出1,500萬臺iPad。休伯蒂估測，即便該調(diào)研結(jié)果打30%的折扣（她是從哪兒弄到這些數(shù)據(jù)的？），如果蘋果能將目前售價最低的iPad 2的價格降至399美元，2012年iPad就能在全球售出9,000萬臺，約比蘋果供應(yīng)商據(jù)稱按訂貨要求生產(chǎn)的數(shù)量還多1,000萬臺。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The results of an AlphaWise survey of U.S. consumers conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving was full of surprises, reports Katy Huberty in a note to clients issued late Wednesday.

????? iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

????? iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

????? "Perhaps most surprising," demand for tablets shows no sign of weakening. Only 8% of US consumers own a tablet today but 27% plan to buy one, according to the survey. If, as Huberty expects, Apple gives up "a modest" 4 points of market share to Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire, Apple could sell 81 million iPads worldwide next year. Morgan Stanley is modeling only 52 millon iPads for 2012, roughly 20 million in the U.S. and 32 million overseas.

????? With a $100 price cut Apple could sell 15 million more iPads. Even after applying a 30% discount to the survey results (where does she get these numbers?), Huberty estimates that if Apple were to reduce the price of the cheapest iPad 2 to $399, it could sell 90 million iPads worldwide in 2012, roughly 10 million more than its suppliers have reportedly been asked to build.