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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

分析師熱議蘋果iPhone 5盛大亮相

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年09月13日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
華爾街沒有感到驚喜,但仍歡欣鼓舞。蘋果股價(jià)當(dāng)天上漲了1.39%。很多分析師也都看好iPhone5的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn),甚至因此調(diào)高了對(duì)蘋果銷售業(yè)績(jī)的預(yù)期。

????

CEO Tim Cook at the event. Photo: The Verge

????首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫(kù)克在發(fā)布會(huì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng) 照片供稿:The Verge

????市場(chǎng)對(duì)蘋果公司推出新手機(jī)反響積極,當(dāng)天就將蘋果股價(jià)推高了1.39%。長(zhǎng)期關(guān)注蘋果的分析師們同樣如此,他們對(duì)周三舉行的特別發(fā)布會(huì)熱情響應(yīng)。下文就是他們第一時(shí)間反應(yīng)的樣本。如有最新內(nèi)容,我們會(huì)置頂處理。

????托皮卡公司(Topeka)的布萊恩?懷特:全新熱賣iPhone 5登場(chǎng)。開始排隊(duì)搶購(gòu)吧?!拔覀兿嘈?,這些變化會(huì)推動(dòng)消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品史上最大的一次升級(jí)。首先,更大的屏幕(4英寸 vs. 3.5英寸)將讓消費(fèi)者的閱讀和視頻觀賞體驗(yàn)更好,甚至?xí)苿?dòng)去年的iPhone 4S升級(jí)。第二,整機(jī)薄了18%,令人驚嘆。這個(gè)提升主要得益于采用了in-cell觸摸屏技術(shù)。讓人驚訝的是,新iPhone比iPhone 4S還輕了20%。第三,全新鋁合金一體成型機(jī)身讓新iPhone顯得更為光滑可人,我們想這一定會(huì)贏得超高的回頭率?!?strong>目標(biāo)價(jià)格不變,為1,111美元。

????杰弗瑞集團(tuán)(Jefferies)的彼得?米瑟克:它來了!趕快買!總的來說,iPhone 5的發(fā)布和之前大家的猜測(cè)基本一致,不過我們認(rèn)為推出這款新機(jī)的運(yùn)營(yíng)商將會(huì)更多,推出速度也會(huì)比眾多投資者預(yù)料的要快。我們相信,本次新品推出的時(shí)間表意味著供貨限制不會(huì)像有些人擔(dān)心的那么嚴(yán)格。我們也看到,未來數(shù)月乃至明年,將有眾多有利因素推動(dòng)蘋果股價(jià)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁?!?strong>目標(biāo)價(jià)格不變,依然是900美元。

????投行派杰公司(Piper Jaffray)的吉恩?蒙斯特:iPhone 5如期發(fā)布?!疤O果公司今天將正式推出iPhone 5,我們相信這款手機(jī)將滿足、甚至超越用戶的期望。這款重新設(shè)計(jì)的手機(jī)給了我們更大信心,讓我們確信九月底蘋果能賣出600萬到1,000萬臺(tái)iPhone 5,因此我們將對(duì)九月iPhone的預(yù)估出貨量從2,200萬臺(tái)調(diào)高到2,720萬臺(tái),以反映我們的信心?!?strong>目標(biāo)價(jià)格不變,為910美元。

????滿銀資本市場(chǎng)(BMO Capital Markets)的凱斯?巴克曼:期待已久的iPhone 5?!熬吞O果的新品發(fā)布而言,我們通常會(huì)重點(diǎn)關(guān)注幾個(gè)突出的性能。但是,iPhone 5給我們的印象是,它遠(yuǎn)不止是一堆零部件的整合。憑借更大的屏幕,包括iOS 6、Siri和地圖在內(nèi)的更好的軟件,更輕盈的機(jī)身,我們相信這款手機(jī)將會(huì)表現(xiàn)出眾。按照慣例,蘋果會(huì)讓這款新手機(jī)的售價(jià)和老款保持一致。”目標(biāo)價(jià)格不變,為680美元。

????巴克萊銀行(Barclays)的本?雷特茲:新屏幕,新軟件,新性能。“我們也注意到了,今天的新品發(fā)布中有些內(nèi)容并未提及。比如,iPhone 5并不具備近近場(chǎng)無線通訊(NFC)功能,蘋果也沒有宣布它擁有和Pandora類似的流媒體收音機(jī)功能。我們相信,明年這些功能就會(huì)出現(xiàn)在蘋果的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)里。本次發(fā)布中也沒有提到全新的Mac電腦,它似乎將與iPad mini一同出現(xiàn)在下個(gè)月的發(fā)布會(huì)上。蘋果也沒有提到蘋果電視(Apple TV)及其客廳產(chǎn)品戰(zhàn)略,而我們本希望能盡快了解更多這方面情況的——雖然我們并沒指望過這次就能看到一臺(tái)功能完備整合的電視機(jī)?!?目標(biāo)價(jià)格不變,為750美元。

????譯者:清遠(yuǎn)

????Like the market, which pushed Apple's (AAPL) shares up 1.39% for the day, analysts who cover the company reacted positively to Wednesday's special event. Below: A sampling of their initial reactions. I'll put the newest ones on top as they come in.

????Topeka's Brian White: The Hot New iPhone 5 Unveiled. Let the Lines Begin. "We believe these changes will drive the biggest upgrade in consumer electronics history. First of all, the larger screen size (4 inches vs. 3.5 inches) will provide consumers with a much better reading and video viewing experience, even driving upgrades from last year's iPhone 4S. Secondly, the 18% thinner form factor is amazing and helped by the use of in-cell display technology. Surprisingly, the new iPhone is also 20% lighter than the iPhone 4S. Thirdly, the new aluminum unibody casing has created a much sleeker look to this new iPhone and we expect this will really turn heads around the world." Price target unchanged at $1,111.

????Jefferies' Peter Misek: It's here! Buy it! "Overall the iPhone 5 announcement was in-line with previews, though we think the phone is launching at more carriers and sooner than many investors expected. We believe the launch schedule implies that supply constraints are not as bad as some feared. We see numerous catalysts for the shares to perform well over the next couple months and the next year." Price target unchanged at $900.

????Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: iPhone 5 Announced as Expected. "Apple officially announced the iPhone 5 today and we believe the phone will meet or exceed consumer expectations. The redesigned phone gives us greater confidence in our feeling that Apple will sell 6-10 million iPhone 5s by the end of September and we are increasing our September quarter iPhone unit estimate to 27.2 million from 22 million to reflect our confidence." Price target unchanged at $910.

????BMO Capital Markets' Kieth Bachman: The Long Awaited 5. "For Apple product launches, we usually call out a few features that stand out. However, our take on the new iPhone 5 is this is more about a sum of the parts. With the larger screen, improved software included iOS 6, Siri and maps, in lighter form factor, we think the phone will do well. As is normally the case, Apple slots the new phones into the prices of previous models." Price target unchanged at $680.

????Barclays' Ben Reitzes: New screen, new software, new features. "We also note some of the things that were not brought up during today's announcements. For example, the iPhone 5 did not come equipped with any NFC capability and Apple did not announce a streaming radio service similar to Pandora. We believe these features will be available within the Apple ecosystem next year. New Macs were also left out of this announcement, which seems to point to yet another event coming next month with the iPad mini. The company also didn't address Apple TV and its strategy for the living room, which we expect to hear more about soon—although we don't expect an integrated television set at this time. Price target unchanged at $750.

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