蘋(píng)果走到十字路口
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????蘋(píng)果（Apple）的投資者們都應(yīng)該看看《蘋(píng)果能否逃出魔咒》（Can a Leopard Change its Spots）這份報(bào)告，盡管他們肯定不會(huì)喜歡這篇文章。保羅·撒加瓦在文中詳細(xì)分析了蘋(píng)果與谷歌（Google）、微軟（Microsoft）、亞馬遜（Amazon）等公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)形勢(shì)。 ????撒加瓦曾是Stanford Bernstein證券的分析師，現(xiàn)在康涅狄格州斯坦福德市的Sector & Sovereign 調(diào)研公司負(fù)責(zé)分析技術(shù)、媒體和電信行業(yè)。 ????這份報(bào)告發(fā)布于11月19日，也就是蘋(píng)果股價(jià)創(chuàng)9個(gè)月來(lái)新低后的第一個(gè)交易日，很好地反映了那些在8周內(nèi)使蘋(píng)果公司市值大降1,870億美元的交易者們的心態(tài)。 ????“天堂向左，地獄向右?！比黾油咴陂_(kāi)篇寫(xiě)道?！霸谥髟琢诵率兰o(jì)第一個(gè)10年后，這場(chǎng)發(fā)軔于蘋(píng)果的革命要開(kāi)始革蘋(píng)果自己的命了。iPhone每年僅更新一次，而且價(jià)格高昂?，F(xiàn)在，大量的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都祭出了6個(gè)月的產(chǎn)品周期和低廉的價(jià)格這兩大法寶，iPhone已節(jié)節(jié)敗退。Android手機(jī)和iPhone的銷(xiāo)量比如今已達(dá)5比1。iPad的情況如出一轍，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手由于電子商務(wù)和廣告等因素愿意貼錢(qián)銷(xiāo)售設(shè)備，導(dǎo)致iPad的銷(xiāo)量逐步下滑。與此同時(shí)，用戶(hù)的關(guān)聯(lián)體驗(yàn)正從設(shè)備向云端遷移，這也讓蘋(píng)果在充滿(mǎn)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)基因的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手前處于不利地位?！?/p> ????下面是這篇報(bào)告其余段落的小標(biāo)題，讀者可以從中領(lǐng)悟到撒加瓦的觀(guān)點(diǎn)。 ????蘋(píng)果因引領(lǐng)行業(yè)變革而大發(fā)橫財(cái)，但如今卻面臨著要求改變公司DNA的戰(zhàn)略挑戰(zhàn)。 ????全球市場(chǎng)，Android智能手機(jī)與iPhone的銷(xiāo)量比已達(dá)5比1。針對(duì)新款A(yù)ndroid平板的激進(jìn)補(bǔ)貼政策正日益威脅著iPad的霸權(quán)。 ????蘋(píng)果正加快產(chǎn)品更新周期，擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)品線(xiàn)，但此舉只能延緩其市場(chǎng)份額下滑的趨勢(shì)，而且還會(huì)進(jìn)一步侵蝕其利潤(rùn)。 ????隨著平臺(tái)整合，云服務(wù)正成為用戶(hù)體驗(yàn)中的重中之重，但蘋(píng)果在技術(shù)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于對(duì)手。 ????企業(yè)級(jí)移動(dòng)平臺(tái)雖然發(fā)展緩慢，但前景極為廣闊，不過(guò)蘋(píng)果所處位置不佳，難以一展拳腳。 ????蘋(píng)果的“熱核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”代價(jià)高昂，而且令公司分心。范圍更廣的交叉授權(quán)協(xié)議不可避免，不過(guò)這對(duì)股東有好處。 |
????Apple (AAPL) investors aren't going to like it, but it behooves them to consider "Can a Leopard Change its Spots," Paul Sagawa's critical analysis of the company's competitive position vis a vis Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). ????Sagawa, a former analyst at Stanford Bernstein, now covers technology, media and telecom for?Sector & Sovereign Research?in Stamford, CT. ????Posted Nov. 19, the first trading day after Apple's share price hit a nine-month low, his doomsday view is a bracing tour of the mindset of the traders who knocked $187 billion off the company's market value in eight weeks. ????"Apple is at a crossroads," Sagawa begins. "After dominating the first decade of the millennium, the revolution that Apple started is shifting against it. The iPhone, with its single annual update and super premium price, has been run down from behind by a pack of rivals with segmented product ranges, 6 month product cycles and aggressive price points. Android phones now outsell Apple 5 to 1, and the iPad is on the same path, exacerbated by rivals willing to subsidize device sales in pursuit of e-commerce and advertising. At the same time, the nexus of the user experience is shifting off of the device and into the cloud, greatly disadvantaging Apple vs. its web-savvy rivals." ????The headings of the paragraphs that follow will give you a sense of where he's headed: ????Apple caused a paradigm shift and reaped a windfall, but now faces strategic challenges that will require changing the company DNA. ????Android smartphones outsell iPhone 5 to 1 worldwide, while aggressive subsidies on new Android tablets threaten the iPad hegemony. ????Apple is accelerating its refresh cycles and broadening its product line, but can only slow its market share losses while accelerating margin erosion. ????Platforms are integrating cloud services as critical elements of the user experience, but Apple is far behind in the skills and infrastructure necessary. ????The slowly emerging opportunity for mobile platforms in the enterprise is huge, but Apple is poorly positioned to exploit it. ????Apple's "Thermonuclear War" is a costly, and ineffective distraction – broad cross-licensing agreements are inevitable and beneficial to shareholders. |
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