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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

iPhone 5下周五登陸大陸市場(chǎng)

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年12月03日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
Wi-Fi版iPad mini和配備Retina顯示屏的第四代iPad將于12月7日星期五在中國(guó)上市,iPhone 5在中國(guó)的發(fā)售時(shí)間定于12月14日星期五。

????

????蘋果公司(Apple)剛剛宣布了新產(chǎn)品在中國(guó)上市的種類及發(fā)售時(shí)間,華爾街分析人士對(duì)此反應(yīng)不一。

????主要觀點(diǎn)(刪去了令人不快的商標(biāo)符號(hào)):

????Wi-Fi版iPad mini和配備Retina顯示屏的第四代iPad將于12月7日星期五在中國(guó)上市,iPhone 5在中國(guó)的發(fā)售時(shí)間定于12月14日星期五。iPad mini與配備Retina屏的第四代iPad目前已在42個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)上市,iPhone 5已經(jīng)在47個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)上市,其中包括美國(guó)、澳大利亞、加拿大、法國(guó)、德國(guó)、日本和英國(guó)。

????分析人士第一時(shí)間作出了反應(yīng),下面是一部分節(jié)選:

????投資銀行Piper Jaffray的基尼·蒙斯特:iPhone在中國(guó)上市的時(shí)間略早于預(yù)期。“之前,我們預(yù)計(jì)這兩款產(chǎn)品將于本季度在中國(guó)上市,iPad的上市時(shí)間與我們之前的預(yù)測(cè)基本一致,而iPhone 5的上市日期則比我們預(yù)計(jì)的時(shí)間提前了一周左右。最主要的是,我們?cè)A(yù)測(cè)iPhone在12月份將取得4,500萬臺(tái)的銷量,iPhone 5在中國(guó)上市的消息讓我們對(duì)之前的預(yù)測(cè)更有信心?!?/p>

????投資公司Topeka的布萊恩·懷特:期待中國(guó)在蛇年“吞”下蘋果?!爸拔覀?cè)A(yù)測(cè)iPhone 5將于12月份在中國(guó)上市,但我們并未想過iPad mini和第四代iPad也會(huì)在今年登陸中國(guó)。此外,目前iPad已經(jīng)在42個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)開賣,而iPhone 5正式上市的時(shí)間雖然晚于預(yù)期,卻已經(jīng)在47個(gè)國(guó)家上市,這讓我們非常吃驚。”

????國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略投資集團(tuán)(ISI)的布萊恩·馬紹爾:對(duì)蘋果繼續(xù)向中國(guó)滲透的看法?!拔覀?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為,截至12月底,iPhone 5將在約100個(gè)國(guó)家和240家運(yùn)營(yíng)商全面鋪開(例如,其全部運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作伙伴)。從技術(shù)角度來看,iPhone 5具有重要意義,因?yàn)檫@是首款同時(shí)支持中國(guó)三大運(yùn)營(yíng)商網(wǎng)絡(luò)(中國(guó)移動(dòng)、中國(guó)聯(lián)通和中國(guó)電信)的iPhone手機(jī)。不過,中國(guó)移動(dòng)正式發(fā)售iPhone的時(shí)間目前仍是個(gè)迷。我們的預(yù)測(cè)是在2013年下半年?!?/p>

????敬請(qǐng)期待更多分析。

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????There was mixed reaction on Wall Street to Apple's (AAPL)?announcement?about which new products are headed to China and when they might get there.

????The key paragraph (with irritating trademark symbols stripped out):

????The Wi-Fi versions of iPad mini and fourth generation iPad with Retina display will be available in China on Friday, December 7, and iPhone 5 will be available on Friday, December 14. iPad mini and the new fourth generation iPad with Retina display are currently available in 42 countries, and iPhone 5 is available in 47 countries, including the US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and the UK.

????Excerpts from the early analyst's reactions:

????Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster: China iPhone Launch Slightly Earlier Than Expected.?"We had previously expected both products to go on sale in China during the quarter and while the iPad timing is generally in-line with our prior thinking, the iPhone 5 will be available about a week earlier than we expected. The bottom line is that the China iPhone 5 announcement gives us slightly greater confidence in our 45 million unit iPhone estimate for December."

????Topeka's Brian White: During the Year of the Snake, Expect China to Devour the Apple."Although we expected the iPhone 5 to arrive in China in December, we were not expecting the iPad mini and fourth generation iPad to be launched in the country this year. Also, we were surprised on the upside by the fact the new iPads are now in 42 countries, while the iPhone 5 rollout seems a bit slower than expected and in 47 countries."

????ISI's Brian Marshall:?Quick Thoughts on AAPL's continued penetration of China.?"We continue to expect the iPhone 5 will be in ~100 countries and ~240 carriers by the end of Dec (e.g., nearly 100% of their total carrier partner base).?From a technology perspective, the iPhone 5 is significant as it is the first iPhone capable of running on all 3 major carrier networks in China (e.g.,?CHL,?CHU,?CHA.)?Big question remains however…when will China Mobile (CHL, world's largest carrier with ~700 million wireless subs) start selling the iPhone? Our best guess is 2H13."

????More as they come in.

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