業(yè)界熱議iPhone 5中國首發(fā)銷量破紀錄
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????咨詢公司Sterne Agee的吳肖：一致同意以上關(guān)于iPhone的預(yù)測。“如此強勁的銷售數(shù)字應(yīng)該有助于平息投資者的擔(dān)憂。相應(yīng)的iPhone 4S銷售數(shù)字沒有透露，因此無從比較，但可以知道的是中國聯(lián)通（China Unicom）的預(yù)購訂單量增加了50%，達到300,000部。我們無意修改上述關(guān)于iPhone的一致預(yù)測，即第四季度銷量將達到4,750萬部。我們?nèi)匀徽J為，iPhone 5是一次重大升級，將驅(qū)動一個強勁的產(chǎn)品周期。 ????證券公司Atlantic Equities的詹姆斯·科德威爾：iPhone 5登陸中國首戰(zhàn)告捷。iPhone 5登陸中國首個周末銷量即突破200萬部。相比之下，據(jù)IDC估算，蘋果在2012財年總共向中國大陸發(fā)貨1,770萬部iPhone（同期向整個大中華區(qū)發(fā)貨2,740萬部iPhone），也就是說，iPhone首發(fā)周末的發(fā)貨量超過去年總銷量的10%。此外，可能還與iPhone 5美國首發(fā)時的銷量相當(dāng)。蘋果稱iPhone 5最初在九國首發(fā)時，發(fā)貨量超過500萬部，而據(jù)我們估算，其中大概有一半的銷量是在美國。誠然，美國的銷售數(shù)字可能受到了供應(yīng)有限的影響，而且以上都是渠道銷售數(shù)字這一事實也意味著我們必須謹慎對待這些數(shù)字，但我們?nèi)匀徽J為，最初的中國發(fā)貨量接近蘋果最大的市場——美國的發(fā)貨量，這個消息屬利好。 ????巴克萊銀行（Barclay）的本·雷特茲：前所未有的波動似乎將導(dǎo)致第一季度收益指引大幅下調(diào)——對了，中國市場表現(xiàn)很不錯。“近日來輿論一致看衰iPhone 5在中國的首發(fā)，但這似乎是杞人憂天了，因為絕大部分分析都只是紙上談兵。事實上，蘋果剛剛宣布，iPhone 5在中國大陸前三天銷量已突破200萬部。這個數(shù)字大大超出了我們的預(yù)期，尤其考慮到投資者曾普遍對iPhone在新興市場上市太晚持悲觀看法（盡管我們?nèi)圆磺宄@200多萬部iPhone 5中究竟有多少已從零售渠道售出）。iPhone 5大熱中國意味著在競爭激烈、iOS 6表現(xiàn)不佳以及宏觀經(jīng)濟疲軟的情況下，我們?nèi)匀挥邢Ｍ浅ｓ@喜地看到，iPhone（所有類型）在整個12月份季度的銷量有望突破5,000萬部。我們認為蘋果股價已接近觸底，不過，我們承認該公司正受到利潤率、地圖、新興市場、競爭和執(zhí)行力等難題困擾。很明顯，蘋果應(yīng)該馬上行動，消除大家的疑慮，而iPhone 5走俏中國市場無疑是個良好的開端。蘋果將于明年1月公布季度財報，而投資者似乎都不大看好其未來營收（輿論普遍預(yù)測，蘋果2013年第二財季的每股盈利不會增長）。蘋果也許需要新一波的新品上市和技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，以恢復(fù)投資者信心，同時推動自己進入新的增長期。” ????Topeka證券的布萊恩·懷特：隨著農(nóng)歷蛇年新年來到，蘋果在中國勢不可擋。“蘋果于上周五（12月14日）在中國發(fā)布iPhone 5。由于這款手機實在乏善可陳，越來越多的人對其在中國市場的表現(xiàn)持懷疑態(tài)度。顯然，現(xiàn)實情況讓他們大跌眼鏡，蘋果iPhone 5銷量喜人，而且該公司首次發(fā)表官方公告，公布了iPhone 5在中國上市后的銷量。中國農(nóng)歷新年是明年2月10日，而購物旺季將于明年1月開始，蘋果已為中國消費者準備了兩大世界上最熱銷的產(chǎn)品（iPhone 5和iPad mini）。我們此前曾指出，中國對iPhone 5的需求將暴漲，因為我們相信iPhone 4和iPhone 4S用戶會紛紛升級手機。上周末iPhone 5的熱銷已經(jīng)證明了我們的觀點。為什么會這樣？關(guān)鍵原因在于地位。中國人向世界展示了一種新現(xiàn)象：在中國，擁有最新最棒的iPhone是有地位的象征?！?/p> |
????Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu:?Remain Comfortable with Above Consensus iPhone Forecast. "This is a strong number and should help quell investor concerns. The number of corresponding iPhone 4S sold was not disclosed but to put this in context, China Unicom pre-orders are up 50% to 300,000. We remain comfortable with our above consensus iPhone forecast looking for 47.5 million units for the December quarter. We continue to believe iPhone 5 is a significant update positioned to drive a powerful product cycle." ????Atlantic Equities' James Cordwell:?Strong start for iPhone 5 in China.?"To put the 2m figure in context, IDC estimates that Apple shipped 17.7m units to mainland China in FY12 (and 27.4m into Greater China), meaning launch weekend shipments were over 10% of last year's total volumes. In addition, the volume is probably comparable to that achieved over the same period in the US. Apple stated it shipped over 5m iPhones during the initial nine country launch of the iPhone 5, with the US probably representing about half of this volume, by our estimates. Admittedly the US figure might have been hit by supply constraints and the fact that all these figures are based on sell-in means they have to be treated with a little caution, but we still view it as positive that initial Chinese shipments were close to those in Apple's biggest geography." ????Barclay's Ben Reitzes: Unprecedented Volatility Seems to be Pricing in a Major March Quarter Guide Down - Oh, and China's Pretty Good.?"Recent pessimism around the iPhone 5 launch in China seems? overdone since most of the activity seems to be online. In fact, Apple just announced that sales of the iPhone 5 over its first?three days in China topped 2 million units - much better than our expectations - especially given negative investor sentiment about emerging markets sales of iPhones of late (although we are still unclear how much of the 2 million plus is sell-through). That said, we would still be surprised to see overall December iPhone (all types) sales well over 50 million given tougher competition, some of the concerns around iOS 6, and macro pressures... For Apple we believe the sell-off is nearing a bottom but we acknowledge the fears around margins, maps, emerging markets, competition and execution. The company clearly needs to ease these concerns in the near future - and the announcement around China iPhone 5 sales was a nice start. Investors seem to be pricing in very weak guidance when the company reports in January (consensus F2Q estimates are now calling for flat EPS y/y). It may take another round of new products and innovations to regain investor confidence and help drive another run" ????Topeka's Brian White: China Can't Shake Apple Fever as We Approach the Year of the Snake. "Recall, Apple launched the iPhone 5 in China on Friday (12/14) and given the lackluster lines, there was growing concern around demand for this new iPhone. Clearly, this view turned out to be incorrect as this represents a big print for Apple and the first time the Company ever issued a post-launch press release for iPhone sales in China. With the Chinese New Year beginning on February 10 and shopping season starting in January, Apple has the two hottest products (i.e., iPhone 5 and iPad mini) in the world available for the Chinese consumers...?We have previously indicated that we expected a big uptick in China demand with the iPhone 5 as we believe both iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S owners will upgrade. The strong iPhone 5 sales this weekend support our view. The key reason is status. In our view, a new form factor shows the world that you have the latest and greatest iPhone, a sign of status in China." |
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