戴爾競(jìng)價(jià)內(nèi)幕
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????上周五，戴爾公司（Dell）發(fā)布了股東簽署的委托書。委托書詳細(xì)闡述了首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?戴爾和私募基金公司銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）聯(lián)手開出的總價(jià)高達(dá)224億美元的收購(gòu)要約的出爐過(guò)程。它還包括了該公司近期接受“詢價(jià)”的詳情，這輪詢價(jià)后，戴爾獲得了黑石集團(tuán)（Blackstone Group）和卡爾?伊坎不具約束力的投資意向。 ????這份文件足有274頁(yè)之多。如果你是個(gè)并購(gòu)迷（或者說(shuō)的確切點(diǎn)，是個(gè)沒啥朋友的并購(gòu)迷），那它會(huì)是你周末晚上的絕佳讀物。而對(duì)其他人來(lái)說(shuō)，看看我們?yōu)榇蠹艺〉囊恍┚A就夠了： ????發(fā)端：最早接觸邁克爾?戴爾，表示有意收購(gòu)的集團(tuán)是東南資產(chǎn)管理公司（Southeastern Asset Management），但它最大的外部股東表示反對(duì)這一提案。這是去年6月的事了。7月，銀湖資本的一位代表在一個(gè)行業(yè)會(huì)議上找到邁克爾?戴爾，建議兩家公司坐下來(lái)商談。委托書并未說(shuō)明這是在哪次行業(yè)會(huì)議上，但我敢打包票，那就是阿斯彭舉辦的“《財(cái)富》頭腦風(fēng)暴技術(shù)大會(huì)”（the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference）（當(dāng)時(shí)邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖資本的埃貢?德班都做了發(fā)言）。此后不久，邁克爾?戴爾就去請(qǐng)教另一家私募基金了（據(jù)信是KKR集團(tuán)）。到了8月14號(hào)，他又將這一意向正式通報(bào)了戴爾重量級(jí)的獨(dú)立董事阿歷克斯?曼德爾。三天后，董事會(huì)全體接到了通知，同時(shí)開始搭建并購(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)——包括籌建一個(gè)特別委員會(huì)。 ????財(cái)務(wù)管理不善：成立這個(gè)特別委員會(huì)的主要?jiǎng)恿λ坪醪皇莵?lái)自邁克爾?戴爾購(gòu)買戴爾公司的意向，而更多是因?yàn)榇鳡柕墓芾韺右辉贌o(wú)法準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)公司的業(yè)績(jī)。比如，8月21日公司報(bào)出的季度營(yíng)收要比公司管理層的內(nèi)部預(yù)測(cè)要少了約3億美元。總的來(lái)說(shuō)，戴爾的營(yíng)收已經(jīng)連續(xù)七個(gè)月顯著低于管理層的預(yù)期，而且除了一個(gè)月之外，還普遍低于分析師的預(yù)測(cè)。情況糟得無(wú)以復(fù)加，結(jié)果特別委員會(huì)只好一度請(qǐng)來(lái)了波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)（Boston Consulting Group）——該集團(tuán)已經(jīng)為戴爾的替代性戰(zhàn)略提供咨詢了——對(duì)公司的財(cái)務(wù)前景開展獨(dú)立分析。 ????說(shuō)實(shí)在的，首席財(cái)務(wù)官布萊恩?格萊登還能保住自己這個(gè)飯碗也真算奇跡了。再者，假如黑石集團(tuán)真打算發(fā)起惡意收購(gòu)，這個(gè)財(cái)務(wù)信息可能會(huì)成為它最有效的防御手段（比如，現(xiàn)任管理層——包括邁克爾?戴爾本人——不適合掌管戴爾公司業(yè)務(wù)）。當(dāng)然，前提是黑石愿意為這個(gè)出價(jià)甘冒名聲被毀的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而且能拿得出這么多錢來(lái)代替邁克爾?戴爾重新投入銀湖資本交易的股份（更別提微軟公司（Microsoft）那20億美元的借款了）。噢，它還有另一個(gè)準(zhǔn)備走馬上任的首席執(zhí)行官呢。我越想越覺得，黑石想正式出價(jià)的可能性微乎其微。 ????這部分也肯定是戴爾最難接受的，因?yàn)檫@可能會(huì)讓它本已焦慮不安的客戶和員工變得更加緊張。另一方面，惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）可能也會(huì)對(duì)自己這位同在奧斯汀的對(duì)手的大筆開銷看笑話。 ????定價(jià)：銀湖最初提出的收購(gòu)價(jià)是每股11.22-12.16美元，并假定邁克爾?戴爾會(huì)把自己的股份也投入這筆交易中。KKR集團(tuán)的出價(jià)也是每股12-13美元，并假定邁克爾的股份會(huì)加上東南資本持有的那些股份——加上邁克爾所做的5億美元追加投資。值得一提的是，東南資本對(duì)KKR的出價(jià)并不知情，所以對(duì)自己被假設(shè)的角色也一無(wú)所知。 |
????Dell Inc. (DELL) today filed a proxy statement, detailing the process leading up its its $24.4 billion buyout proposal from CEO Michael Dell and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners. The proxy also includes details from the company's recent "go-shop" period, which resulted in nonbinding indications of interest from The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn. ????The entire package is 274 pages long, and certainly would make a good Friday night read if you're an M&A junkie (or, more specifically, a lonely M&A junkie). For the rest of you, here is a breakdown of the more interesting cuts: ????Inception: The first group to approach Michael Dell about a possible buyout was Southeastern Asset Management, the company's largest outside shareholder which has said it plans to vote against the current proposal. That was last June. The following month, a representative of Silver Lake approached Michael Dell at an industry conference to suggest the two sit down. The proxy does not say which industry conference, but I'm 99.9% certain it was Fortune Brainstorm Tech in Aspen (where Michael Dell and Silver Lake's Egon Durban both spoke). Michael Dell soon would reach out to another private equity firm (believed to be KKR) for advice, before formally advising Dell's lead independent director, Alex Mandl, on August 14. Three days later the entire board was informed and began putting M&A infrastructure in place -- including the creation of a special committee. ????Financial mismanagement: The driving force behind the special committee seemed to be less that Michael Dell wanted to buy Dell, and more that Dell management was serially incapable of accurately forecasting company performance. For example, on August 21 the company reported quarterly earnings that were around $300 million less than internal management projections. Overall, Dell's revenue came in significantly below management projections for seven straight quarters and, save for one quarter, below consensus analyst estimates. Things got so bad that, at one point, the special committee asked Boston Consulting Group -- which already was advising on strategic alternatives -- to provide independent financial analysis of the company's prospects. ????To be honest, it's kind of a wonder that CFO Brian Gladden still has his job. Moreover, if Blackstone Group were to launch a hostile bid, this financial information could be its most effective defense (i.e., current management -- including Michael Dell -- is unfit to run the business). Of course, that would assume Blackstone would be willing to risk its reputation on such an offer, and that it has the financial resources to replace the equity Michael Dell is rolling over as part of the Silver Lake deal (not to mention Microsoft's $2 billion loan). Oh, and that it has another CEO in place. Again, the chances of a formal Blackstone bid keep getting smaller the more I think about them. ????This section also must be the toughest for Dell to swallow as a company, since it may make fidgety customers and employees even more nervous. On the other hand, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) may be having a good laugh at its Austin rival's expense. ????Pricing: Silver Lake originally proposed a purchase price range of $11.22-$12.16 per share, assuming that Michael Dell would roll his shares into the deal. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR) also put in a bid for $12-$13 per share, assuming Michael's shares plus those held by Southeastern -- plus a $500 million additional investment from Michael. Important to note that Southeastern was unaware of the KKR offer, and thus was ignorant of its hypothetical role. |
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