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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

誰導(dǎo)演了“驅(qū)逐庫克船長”鬧劇

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年04月24日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
最近,蘋果公司CEO蒂姆?庫克內(nèi)憂外患,日子不太好過。公司股票持續(xù)下跌,新產(chǎn)品發(fā)布毫無動靜。同時,華爾街要求庫克下臺的聲音甚囂塵上,甚至聲稱選他當(dāng)接班人是喬布斯最大的決策失誤。他們是誰?為什么這么干?

????我們上一次提到道格?卡斯還是在今年 2 月,蘋果年度股東大會的前一天??ㄋ故且患倚⌒蛯_基金公司的經(jīng)理,在美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)頗有影響力。當(dāng)時那篇文章提到了他在Twitter上玩的一個小把戲。

????當(dāng)時,蘋果(Apple)股價下跌,而卡斯正在做多蘋果股票。他在Twitter上發(fā)布傳聞稱,蘋果即將宣布分拆。受此消息影響,蘋果股價出現(xiàn)上漲,而卡斯在盈利之后便拋售了所持股票。他隨后又發(fā)布消息稱傳聞并無依據(jù),隨后遭到了大量指責(zé)。(參閱道格?卡斯在Twitter上的一天。)

????如今,卡斯又故伎重施。他援引與其股票分割傳聞為同一個消息來源的“Gnome”的說法稱:

????為了取悅?cè)A爾街,蘋果應(yīng)該炒掉庫克,持這種觀點者不僅僅只有卡斯一個人。數(shù)周以來,不滿的股東們都在私下議論紛紛,大體意思都是要求庫克下臺。如今,距離蘋果發(fā)布 2013 財年第二財季財報還有兩天,這些不滿情緒正在浮出水面。

????我們來看看放出這些風(fēng)聲的都是誰:

????? 我們已經(jīng)知道了道格?卡斯通過Twitter發(fā)布的消息。而真正使他備受關(guān)注的是在蘋果公司股票暴跌,使這家全球最有價值公司市值縮水3億之前,他所發(fā)表的《看跌蘋果》一文。

????? 知名科技行業(yè)顧問羅博?恩代爾撰寫了一篇題為《修復(fù)蘋果,不可能完成的任務(wù)》的文章。他是戴爾(Dell)、微軟(Microsoft)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等公司的顧問,長期以來一直在紙媒和電視上唱空蘋果。(關(guān)于恩代爾的背景資料,可從2003年約翰?格魯布的《堵住‘大嘴分析師’的嘴》一文開始查閱。)

????? 《福布斯》網(wǎng)站上周日刊登了一篇題為《蘋果是否正在尋找 CEO 庫克的接班人》的文章。作為一家商業(yè)期刊的網(wǎng)絡(luò)版,這個網(wǎng)站一度倍受尊敬。不過這篇文章被 Macworld 雜志指責(zé)為“代表反蘋果作者的小丑表演”。

????毫無疑問,希望庫克下臺的投資者并不是蘋果的朋友。據(jù)我所知,了解蘋果的分析師對庫克仍然非常尊重。更重要的是,蘋果董事會向庫克提供了 100 萬股受限股,作為吸引庫克留在蘋果的激勵措施。它體現(xiàn)了董事會對庫克的信心。

????目前,蘋果股價仍高于庫克接替喬布斯出任蘋果 CEO 時的價格。我認(rèn)為,蘋果股價上漲至 700 多美元,隨后回落至 390 美元,更多的是因為股票市場的機(jī)能失調(diào),與庫克擔(dān)任 CEO沒有什么關(guān)系。

????The last time we wrote about Doug Kass -- a small hedge fund manager with a large presence on CNBC -- it was to document a neat little trick he played on his Twitter feed in February, the day before Apple's annual shareholder meeting.

????Apple's (AAPL) share price was down and Kass was long the stock. He tweeted a rumor that the company was about to announce a split, the stock went up, he sold his shares at a profit, tweeted that the rumor was baseless and then spent the rest of the day hurling insults at his critics. (See A day in the Twitter life of Doug Kass.)

????Well, Kass is at it again. On Sunday, citing the same "Gnome" that was the source for his stock split story, he tweeted:

????Kass, it turns out, is not alone in suggesting that the solution to Apple's woes on Wall Street is to fire its CEO. We've been hearing whispers to that effect from disgruntled shareholders for weeks, but now -- two days before Cook is scheduled to report Apple's March quarterly earnings -- they've come to the surface.

????And who's doing that? Let's take a look:

????? We've got the tweet from Doug Kass, whose main Apple-related claim to fame was to publish his "Bear Case for Apple" the day before the stock began a nosedive that lopped $300 billion off the market cap of the world's most valuable company.

????? We've got The impossible task of fixing Apple by Rob Enderle, a consultant for Dell (DELL), Microsoft (MSFT), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and others, who has made a career of bad-mouthing Apple in print and on TV. (For background on Enderle, you can start with John Gruber's 2003 Putting the 'anal' in 'analyst'.)

????? We've got Sunday's Is Apple Looking For A Replacement For CEO Cook? in Forbes.com, the online arm of a once-respected business publication whose experiment in what it calls "incentive-based, entrepreneurial journalism" has led to what Macworld calls "a relentless clown show of anti-Apple contributors."

????Make no mistake, the people who want Tim Cook's head on a spike are not friends of Apple. As far as I know, he still has the deep respect of the analysts who know the company best and -- most important -- the confidence of the board of directors who granted a million restricted shares of Apple as an incentive for him to stick around for at least a decade.

????For the record, Apple is still trading higher today than it was when Cook replaced Steve Jobs. The forces that drove the stock up to over $700 and then down to below $390 seem to me to have more to do with a dysfunctional securities market than anything Cook has done as CEO.

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