Snapchat天價(jià)估值背后有何玄機(jī)
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????Snapchat是全世界成長(zhǎng)最快的移動(dòng)應(yīng)用之一，它的用戶每天分享的“快照”數(shù)量超過(guò)2億張?；蛟S你還不知道Snapchat（30歲以上的讀者恐怕都不太知道它），“快照”是在被查看后的10秒鐘內(nèi)自動(dòng)銷毀的即時(shí)消息或照片。 ????Snapchat的估價(jià)的攀升速度在移動(dòng)應(yīng)用中也是首屈一指。昨天有多份報(bào)告指出，Snapchat在新一輪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)融資中籌得6,000萬(wàn)美元，融資前估值為8億美元（Snapchat證實(shí)了這筆交易，但沒有透露具體的財(cái)務(wù)細(xì)節(jié)）。 ????然而，Snapchat目前還沒有收入，也沒有清晰可見的獲得收入的路徑。 ????鑒于“快照”很快就自動(dòng)銷毀了，傳統(tǒng)的移動(dòng)廣告模式似乎不適合?；蛟S同電視廣告一樣，可能會(huì)有一些回憶價(jià)值。但就電視廣告而言，在30秒的廣告插播時(shí)段，觀眾在電視屏幕上只有廣告可看。而就“Snapchat”而言，僅有短短10秒的時(shí)間，而且在此期間用戶是專注于別的東西（即“快照”消息的內(nèi)容）。而且，較之Pinterest和Tumblr等公司聚集的信息，Snapchat上的許多信息似乎是轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝。說(shuō)到Tumblr，它被雅虎（Yahoo）收購(gòu)時(shí)的估價(jià)也就比Snapchat本輪估價(jià)高出25％左右。這樣的回報(bào)對(duì)IVP等后期投資者而言還算可以，但遠(yuǎn)算不上豐厚。 ????那么，對(duì)Snapchat的估價(jià)是否單單是根據(jù)它海量的使用量和飛速增長(zhǎng)，以及相信會(huì)有雅虎那樣的公司不顧一切地接盤？我認(rèn)為這也說(shuō)不過(guò)去，因?yàn)門umblr最終的賣價(jià)也就比融資后估值高出25％。當(dāng)然，Snapchat可以引入某種訂閱模式——或?qū)o(wú)限量“快照”變成收費(fèi)服務(wù)——但這可能會(huì)對(duì)它的增長(zhǎng)造成一定的影響，而且可能導(dǎo)致用戶和市場(chǎng)份額被競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手蠶食。 ????又或許“快照”服務(wù)其實(shí)只是一個(gè)幌子，目的是圈住用戶，同時(shí)Snapchat可以完善它真正的移動(dòng)攝像應(yīng)用程序。 |
????Snapchat is one of the world's fastest-growing mobile apps, with users sharing more than 200 million "snaps" per day. For the uninitiated (or those over 30), "snaps" are instant messages/photos that self-destruct ten seconds or less after being viewed. ????It also has one of the mobile world's fastest-growing valuations, with multiple reports out today that the company has raised $60 million in new VC funding at an $800 million pre-money valuation (the company confirmed the deal, sans financial specifics). ????What Snapchat doesn't have yet, however, is revenue. Nor does it have easily identifiable paths to revenue. ????Traditional mobile advertising would seem to be a no-go, given how quickly snaps disappear. There may be some residual recall value like with television ads, although it's tough to compare a 10-second view when the user is focused on something else (i.e., the snap's content) to a 30-second spot where the user only has one thing to watch on the screen. Much of the data also seems fleeting, compared with information collected by such companies as Pinterest and Tumblr. And, speaking of Tumblr, it was acquired by Yahoo (YHOO) at a valuation just 25% or so higher than this round. That would be a decent return for late-stage investors like IVP, but hardly spectacular. ????So is this valuation based solely on massive usage/growth, and the belief that someone like Yahoo (YHOO) will be desperate for it as a feature? That doesn't make sense to me either, given that Tumblr sold for just 25% more than the post-money. Snapchat always could introduce some sort of subscription model -- or make unlimited snaps a premium service -- but that could eat a bit into the growth and enable cannibalization by a rival service. ????Or maybe the snap service is really just a Trojan horse, securing users while the company polishes up what could become the de facto mobile camera app. |
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