蘋果設(shè)備銷量今年有望超越Windows PC
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????在本文所附的圖表中，微軟（Microsoft）Windows PC同Mac、iPad、iPhone以及iPod touch等四類蘋果（Apple）設(shè)備被硬生生放在一起進(jìn)行比較。 ????雖然這樣的比較有些不合常規(guī)，但Asymco的賀拉斯?德迪歐本周一發(fā)布此圖表是為了表達(dá)一個(gè)重要的觀點(diǎn)。 ????上世紀(jì)八、九十年代，計(jì)算平臺(tái)的決策權(quán)最初掌握在企業(yè)手中，后來(lái)轉(zhuǎn)移到開發(fā)商手中，隨后又轉(zhuǎn)移到那些借鑒已確定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的個(gè)人手中……那時(shí)，只要說(shuō)服500名（首席信息官這種）有權(quán)設(shè)定采購(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的人就能使某個(gè)平臺(tái)勝出。 ????如今，移動(dòng)產(chǎn)品存在著數(shù)十億決策者。區(qū)區(qū)500個(gè)（采購(gòu)）決策不值一提。事實(shí)上，雖然蘋果至少有5億忠實(shí)、而且掏得起錢的用戶，它在（華爾街）眼中仍然朝不保夕。 ????歸根結(jié)底，采購(gòu)者和最終受益者之間的中間人消失，使得微軟對(duì)于購(gòu)買決策的控制權(quán)消失。這種情況不是不大可能扭轉(zhuǎn)，而是根本不可能扭轉(zhuǎn)。計(jì)算決策權(quán)已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到數(shù)十年的最邊緣處。電腦不僅已經(jīng)是個(gè)人使用，而且是個(gè)人擁有。 ????德迪歐在圖表的腳注中提到，2012年，他曾預(yù)測(cè)iOS以及OS X設(shè)備的總銷量將在2013或2014年趕上Windows設(shè)備?，F(xiàn)在看來(lái)，他沒(méi)有說(shuō)錯(cuò)。 ????更新：本文之前附的是Asymco制作的另一幅圖表，但部分讀者認(rèn)為之前的圖表不好理解。點(diǎn)擊下面的鏈接，可看到前后兩個(gè)版本。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：項(xiàng)航?????? |
????Oranges are being compared with Apples in the attached chart. Or rather, Microsoft (MSFT) Windows PCs with four kinds of Apple (AAPL) devices -- Macs, iPads, iPhones and iPod touches. ????But Asymco's Horace Dediu, who posted it Monday, is bending the rules to make a serious point: ????In the 1980s and 1990s computing platform decisions were made first by companies then by developers and later by individuals who took their cues from what standards were already established... A platform could win by convincing 500 individuals who had the authority (as CIOs) to impose through fiat a standard on the centers of gravity of purchasing power. ????Today, with mobile products there are billions of decision makers. 500 decisions mean nothing. In fact, Apple with at least 500 million loyal and wealthy users is considered [by Wall Street] to be in a precarious situation... ????Ultimately, it was the removal of the intermediary between buyer and beneficiary which dissolved Microsoft's power over the purchase decision. It's not just unlikely that this situation will be reversed, it's impossible. Computing decision making has moved to the furthest edge where use has been for decades. The computer has become personal not just in the sense of how it's used but in the sense of how it's owned. ????In footnote, Dediu mentions that in 2012 he predicted that iOS plus OS X would catch up to Windows in 2013 or 2014. He's not wrong yet. ????UPDATE: An earlier version of this story showed a different Asymco chart that some readers had trouble interpreting. Both versions are available at the link below. |
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