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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

分析師:庫(kù)克為什么不買下蘋果?眾網(wǎng)友爆笑解答

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2014年06月09日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
專業(yè)分析師撰文稱,蘋果現(xiàn)在是杠桿收購(gòu)的理想目標(biāo),很奇怪庫(kù)克為什么還不出手。網(wǎng)友評(píng)論稱,現(xiàn)在收購(gòu)蘋果簡(jiǎn)直就是癡人說夢(mèng),作者完全是在騙稿費(fèi)。

????“蘋果公司有著絕佳的創(chuàng)新性產(chǎn)品、強(qiáng)有力的高管團(tuán)隊(duì)和勞動(dòng)力、忠誠(chéng)的客戶群以及超強(qiáng)的負(fù)債能力,同時(shí)還坐擁價(jià)值1090億美元的暢銷有價(jià)證券。這么好的條件,蒂姆?庫(kù)克竟然還沒有啟動(dòng)對(duì)蘋果的管理層杠桿收購(gòu),真是令人吃驚?!?/p>

????在給美國(guó)財(cái)經(jīng)資訊網(wǎng)站Seeking Alpha撰寫的一篇挑釁性文章中,IDG Capital Group的瑪萬?喀拉密寫下了上面這段話??茉谖闹杏昧?1個(gè)電子表格、7個(gè)圖表和兩個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)試驗(yàn)法模擬來佐證自己的觀點(diǎn)。

????各位可以在《蘋果公司管理層杠桿收購(gòu)的潛在可能》(Apple’s Leveraged Management Buyout Potential)一文中看到喀拉密的分析。但是,千萬別錯(cuò)過評(píng)論區(qū)精彩的唇槍舌戰(zhàn)。

????部分神回復(fù)摘錄如下:

????- alistairt:這是我迄今見過的生搬硬套杠桿收購(gòu)模型,而絲毫不考慮根本商業(yè)現(xiàn)實(shí)的最好例子。

????- relayer75:根本不可能。歷史上最大的杠桿收購(gòu)案例是美國(guó)雷諾茲-納貝斯克公司(RJR Nabisco),收購(gòu)價(jià)為310億美元。假如蘋果被收購(gòu),規(guī)模將是雷諾茲-納貝斯克收購(gòu)案的18倍。

????- rroo:庫(kù)克頭腦冷靜,這一點(diǎn)有些像蓋茨或巴菲特。而只有自大狂才會(huì)對(duì)杠桿收購(gòu)(金錢和權(quán)力)念念不忘。

????- rsbduff:這種態(tài)度已經(jīng)毀掉了許多公司。他們將公司買下來……欠下一屁股債……把公司搜刮的干干凈凈……然后又讓傻呼呼的投資者來接盤

????- Timmiesregular:上市公司能享受到不少好處——特別是如果公司盈利的話更是如此。公司私有化通常是公司需要淡出公眾視線時(shí)的權(quán)宜之計(jì),戴爾就是一個(gè)很好的例子。

????- Hank890:如果蘋果被杠桿收購(gòu),那負(fù)責(zé)這筆交易的投行就賺大了。但客戶或公司員工不見得有太大的好處。杠桿收購(gòu)有可能不代表就是明智之舉。

????- wdchil:蘋果股價(jià)低于400美元的時(shí)候,杠桿收購(gòu)似乎講得通,但現(xiàn)在絕對(duì)不合適。假如此時(shí)蘋果進(jìn)行杠桿收購(gòu),它的債務(wù)將基本等同于垃圾債。

????- petergrayhill:蘋果股價(jià)從400多美元一路上漲到635美元的最新一波上漲行情最后會(huì)死得很難看,數(shù)百萬散戶投資者也將沒有好果子吃——交易的障眼法。杠桿收購(gòu)5年內(nèi)一定會(huì)發(fā)生。

????- alexkeywest:蘋果將被杠桿收購(gòu)簡(jiǎn)直是癡人說夢(mèng)。

????- doc:“蒂姆?庫(kù)克沒有尋求進(jìn)行管理層杠桿收購(gòu),實(shí)在是令人吃驚?!币?yàn)閹?kù)克沒那么閑,沒工夫在那兒紙上談兵。

????- brittlerock:Seeking Alpha花錢請(qǐng)人寫這種垃圾文章?

????回復(fù)brittlerock:Seeking Alpha的稿費(fèi)費(fèi)率是,頁(yè)面點(diǎn)擊量的單價(jià)為0.01美元。專業(yè)文章的作者每篇文章保證能獲得150-500美元的保底收入。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????“With such amazing and innovative products, strong executive team and labor force, loyal customer base, significant capacity for debt, $109 billion of cash in marketable securities, it is surprising that Tim Cook has not already initiated a leveraged management buyout of the company.”

????So writes Marwaan Karame of IDG Capital Group in a provocative Seeking Alpha article backed with eleven spreadsheets, seven graphs and two Monte Carlo simulations.

????You can read his analysis at Apple’s Leveraged Management Buyout Potential. But don’t miss the lively back and forth in the comment stream.

????A sample:

????– alistairt: One of the best examples I’ve seen to date of someone mindlessly applying a LBO model without consideration of the underlying business reality.

????– relayer75: Not going to happen. The largest LBO in history was RJR Nabisco, at $31 billion. This would be 18x that amount.

????– rroo: Cook is a level-headed guy, more like Gates or Buffet. LBO (money and power) are for those infected with megalomania.

????– rsbduff: This is the same attitude that has ruined many a company. They buy them…load them up with debt…rape them…then dump them on stupid investors…once again

????– Timmiesregular: There are some benefits to being public — especially if you are profitable. Going private is only done when the company needs to be out of the public eye – like Dell.

????– Hank890: An AAPL LBO would be a major GIFT to any I-bank tasked with handling it. But it is not clear that the customers or employees would get much out of it. Just because an LBO is possible does not mean it is advisable.

????– wdchil: An LBO might have almost have made sense when Apple was below $400 but it certainly doesn’t now. The debt would be in the “sketchy junk” arena.

????– petergrayhill: This latest surge from high 400′s to 635 will end badly for the millions of mom’n’pop retail investors as well — head fake to trade. LBO is a certainty within 5 years.

????– alexkeywest: An LBO of this company is delusional at best.

????– doc: “Its a wonder that Tim Cook has not pursued a leveraged management buyout already” He doesn’t live in a theoretical world with too much time on his hands.

????– brittlerock: Does SA pay people to write this junk?

????To answer brittlerock: Seeking Alpha’s rates are $0.01 per page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.

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