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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

傳言再起,蘋果iWatch到底什么樣?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2014年06月11日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
坊間盛傳蘋果iWatch今年10月就會(huì)面市,關(guān)于它的形態(tài)和功能,大家莫衷一是,讓人無從判斷。但資深人士預(yù)測,它肯定將延續(xù)蘋果產(chǎn)品極簡主義的審美趣味,而且它最大的用武之地應(yīng)該是在健康領(lǐng)域,而不是健身房。

????似乎是因?yàn)樘O果(Apple)的全球開發(fā)者大會(huì)沒能為關(guān)注蘋果的博客寫手們提供足夠的寫作素材,于是上周五,關(guān)于人們口中的蘋果iWatch又出現(xiàn)了新的傳聞。

????到上周六,美國科技博客聚合網(wǎng)站Techmeme已收集到68篇相關(guān)博文。不過,其中65篇都可以忽略,因?yàn)樗鼈兊囊罁?jù)都是三個(gè)共同的來源:

????1、《日經(jīng)亞洲評論》(Nikkei Asian Review)的兼松雄一郎。上周五,兼松雄一郎援引匿名零件制造商的消息報(bào)道稱,iWatch設(shè)備可能采用曲面觸摸屏、能閱讀電子郵件并收集卡路里消耗、睡眠活動(dòng)、血糖和血液含氧量等與健康有關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)。兼松雄一郎自說自話地寫道:“這款設(shè)備預(yù)計(jì)今年十月就會(huì)投放市場?!?他補(bǔ)充道,蘋果公司已經(jīng)訂購的配件數(shù)量足夠每月組裝300-500萬塊iWatch。

????2、科技網(wǎng)站Re/Code的約翰?帕克茲沃斯基。帕克茲沃斯基援引知情人士的消息,對蘋果十月發(fā)布iWatch的說法提供了些許支持。帕克茲沃斯基的消息源稱,蘋果希望在十月安排一場特別活動(dòng)。隨后,帕克茲沃斯基警告稱:“秋季到來之前情況有沒有可能發(fā)生變化?當(dāng)然有可能?!辈贿^,斯坦芬?康斯坦丁顯然沒注意到帕克茲沃斯基的上述表態(tài)??邓固苟≡赥witter發(fā)消息稱:“《日經(jīng)》今天早些時(shí)候關(guān)于iWatch的報(bào)道,我根本不在乎。但假如約翰?帕克茲沃斯基說了是十月發(fā)布,那肯定錯(cuò)不了?!?/p>

????3、金融服務(wù)公司Cantor Fitzgerald的布萊恩?懷特。上周五,懷特援引匿名高科技供應(yīng)鏈公司的消息告訴客戶,他預(yù)計(jì)iWatch將在九月、而不是十月發(fā)布,并且只是作為iPhone 6的伴侶。懷特寫道:“iWatch部分部件的初期生產(chǎn)預(yù)定于本月晚些時(shí)候開始,并計(jì)劃在秋天前大大加速?!彼a(bǔ)充道,預(yù)計(jì)將推出多個(gè)版本的iWatch,起步價(jià)在199-229美元。

????這么多傳聞恐怕不是空穴來風(fēng)。關(guān)于iWatch的上市時(shí)間、定價(jià)以及生產(chǎn)情況,我沒什么可補(bǔ)充的。但我關(guān)注這件事已經(jīng)很長時(shí)間了,種種消息是真是假,我心里大致有些譜。

????不管怎樣,iWatch絕對不會(huì)是上圖中那個(gè)樣子:脈搏血氧儀接入大號手表中。蘋果給出的解決方案將是外形精致的無線設(shè)備。

????蘋果不會(huì)生產(chǎn)脈搏血氧儀、血糖棒、血壓計(jì)或任何外設(shè)。蘋果需要的是合作伙伴,而不是競爭對手。

????iWatch的主要市場將是醫(yī)院,而不是健身俱樂部。它的殺手級應(yīng)用更可能是警告病人——及其醫(yī)生——他即將心臟病發(fā)作的一款應(yīng)用。

????蒂姆?庫克去年就曾表示:“整個(gè)傳感器領(lǐng)域?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)爆炸式增長?!痹谏现芤坏娜蜷_發(fā)者大會(huì)主題演講中,蘋果透露了自己的計(jì)劃,發(fā)布了HealthKit平臺,還宣布與著名醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)梅奧診所(Mayo Clinic)合作。這家診所已經(jīng)在使用遠(yuǎn)程傳感器,在病人出院后繼續(xù)跟蹤他們的生命體征。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????As if WWDC didn’t give the Apple AAPL -0.28% bloggers enough to write about, Friday brought a fresh round of rumors about what everybody is calling the iWatch.

????By Saturday, Techmeme had collected 68 stories on the topic. You can ignore 65 of them. They’re all based on the same three sources:

????1. Nikkei Asian Review‘s Yuichiro Kanematsu, who reported Friday, citing an unnamed parts manufacturer, that the device will likely use a curved touchscreen, read e-mail and collect such health-related data as calorie consumption, sleep activity, blood glucose and blood oxygen levels. “It is expected to hit the market in October,” he wrote, citing no source whatsoever, adding that Apple has ordered up enough parts to build 3-5 million a month.

????2. Re/Code‘s John Paczkowski, citing people familiar with Apple’s plans, gave weak support to the October date. His guys are saying that Apple “hopes to schedule a special event that month.” Then Paczkowski added a caveat: “Could things change between now and fall? That’s certainly possible.” “Whatever Nikkei said about the iWatch earlier today, I don’t care,” tweeted Stefan Constantine, who apparently missed the caveat. “When @JohnPaczkowski says October, it’s October.”

????3. Cantor Fitzgerald‘s Brian White, citing one unnamed tech supply chain company, told clients Friday that he expects the watch to be unveiled in September, not October, and only as a companion to an iPhone 6. “Initial production of certain ‘iWatch’ components is scheduled to begin later this month and there are plans for a sharp acceleration into fall,” he wrote, adding that he expects several versions with a starting price in the $199-229 range.

????Where there’s this much smoke, there’s probably some fire. I have nothing to add in terms of timing, price or production, but I’ve been watching this story long enough to get some sense of what we’re likely to see and what we’re not.

??? Whatever it is, it’s not going to look the contraption pictured above: a pulse oximeter that plugs into an oversize watch. Apple’s solution will be elegant and wireless.

????Apple will not be manufacturing pulse oximeters, glucose sticks, blood pressure monitors or any of those periperals. Apple needs partners, not competitors.

????The primary market will be hospitals, not health clubs. The killer app is more likely to be one that warns a patient — and his doctor — that he’s about to have a heart attack.

????“The whole sensor field is going to explode,” Tim Cook said last year. Apple telegraphed its plans at Monday’s WWDC keynote when it unveiled HealthKit and announced a partnership with the Mayo Clinic, which is already using remote sensors to track their patients’ vital signs after they leave the hospital.

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