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????上周三，本?巴加林在Tech.pinions網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布了名為《三星登頂》（Peak Samsung）的收費(fèi)文章。而此前一天，本?湯普森在其Stratechery網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布了一篇名為《智能手機(jī)真相及三星衰敗不可避免》（Smartphone Truths and Samsung’s Inevitable Decline）的文章。

????兩篇文章都在開篇就提到三星于上周二發(fā)布的壞消息：這家公司的智能手機(jī)和平板電腦銷售放緩，導(dǎo)致公司盈利年同比下滑了24％。

????兩人都在用自己的方式表達(dá)“我早就說(shuō)了吧”這個(gè)意思。

????湯普森列出了一長(zhǎng)串要點(diǎn)，之后才從更寬廣的視角著筆寫道：

????“說(shuō)到底……三星的根本問(wèn)題在于，他們沒(méi)有基于軟件的差異化。這就意味著，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，他們只能打價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。而在這方面，惠普（HP）和戴爾（Dell）可謂是前車之鑒。”

????“其實(shí)，事實(shí)證明，智能手機(jī)確實(shí)就同電腦一樣：獲得高額利潤(rùn)的是自有操作系統(tǒng)的硬件制造商，其他廠商可謂是自廢武功，白白讓軟件商占了便宜?！?/p>

????我認(rèn)為，關(guān)注智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的人一定要看看這兩篇文章。巴加林的收費(fèi)文章一貫?zāi)軌蛑祷仄眱r(jià)（他的收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是每篇文章25美分，包月5美元，包年50美元）。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????Bajarin’s piece, posted Wednesday behind the Tech.pinions paywall, is called Peak Samsung. Thompson’s, posted the day before on his Stratechery site, is titled Smartphone Truths and Samsung’s Inevitable Decline.

????They both start with the bad news Samsung released Tuesday – slowing smartphone and tablet sales leading to a 24% earnings decline year over year.

????And they both, in their own way, say “I told you so.”

????Thompson runs through a long list of bulleted items before landing on the broader point:

????“Ultimately… Samsung’s fundamental problem is that they have no software-based differentiation, which means in the long run all they can do is compete on price. Perhaps they should ask HP or Dell how that goes.

????“In fact, it turns out that smartphones really are just like PCs: it’s the hardware maker with its own operating system that is dominating profits, while everyone else eats themselves alive to the benefit of their software master.”

????I consider both pieces must-reads for anyone watching the smartphone market. Bajarin’s work is always worth the price of admission (25 cents per piece, $5 per month, $50 per year).