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專欄 - 從華爾街到硅谷

投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本,前景撲朔迷離

Dan Primack 2014年10月10日

Dan Primack專注于報(bào)道交易和交易撮合者,從美國金融業(yè)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資業(yè)均有涉及。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務(wù)。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經(jīng)營一份社區(qū)報(bào)紙。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
近幾年,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金的估值在持續(xù)攀升,現(xiàn)在似乎是投資風(fēng)投基金的好機(jī)會。所有人都變得躁動不安。

????“現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該加大投資,還是急踩剎車?”

????本周早些時候,一位投資組合經(jīng)理向我提出了這個問題。他投資了數(shù)十家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金,包括業(yè)內(nèi)最優(yōu)秀的投資基金。我沒有自負(fù)到以為他會因?yàn)槲业囊稽c(diǎn)小小建議便做出涉及數(shù)百萬美元的投資決定,但他確實(shí)非常真誠。如今,投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本,正處在過去二十年間最難以捉摸的時期,

????需要明確的是,我并不是說投資收益正在縮水。事實(shí)恰恰相反。近幾年,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金的估值在持續(xù)攀升,而生氣勃勃的IPO(首次公開募股)和并購市場,推動風(fēng)投基金派發(fā)的股息達(dá)到歷史新高。例如,哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)的捐助基金昨天宣布,其2014財(cái)年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資回報(bào)率為32.8%——而其投資組合的總體回報(bào)率為15.4%,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)的同期回報(bào)率為21.38%。

????但問題在于:有限責(zé)任合伙人并未投資現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格。他們選擇的投資對象,是(有望)能夠在幾年之后開始產(chǎn)生回報(bào)的長期基金。他們擔(dān)心,即便市場現(xiàn)在尚未觸頂,也必將在基金帶來收益的時候到達(dá)頂峰——結(jié)果是,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資基金經(jīng)理的投資組合定價(jià)過高,卻只有相對較少的退出機(jī)會。

????大多數(shù)有限責(zé)任合伙人都經(jīng)歷了上一個科技周期,并且信誓旦旦地表示,再也不會陷入同樣的困境。如今他們看到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資公司激增,不僅籌集的資金動輒超過10億美元,融資周期也大幅縮短【最明顯的是老虎環(huán)球基金(Tiger Global),這只基金上一次募集了15億美元之后僅僅5個月,又再次募集了15億美元】。因此,有許多歷史數(shù)據(jù)支持現(xiàn)在退出這一領(lǐng)域。但如果我們現(xiàn)在的情形類似于1997年或者1998年上半年,而不是1999年,情況又會如何?如果你太早離開,結(jié)果導(dǎo)致數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的資金無所作為,怎么辦?如果更好的基本商業(yè)模式、更多的潛在買家和更溫和的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,意味著現(xiàn)在確實(shí)是一個“不同的”時代,我們又該怎么辦?但是,等等,想到“現(xiàn)在是一個不同的時代”難道不是應(yīng)該立刻退出的明確信號嗎?

????所以,我給了那位投資組合經(jīng)理最誠實(shí)的回答:我不知道他應(yīng)該做什么,但如果有人言之鑿鑿地回答這個問題,絕對不能輕信。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????“Is now the time to double down, or to slam on the brakes?”

????That was the question posed to me earlier this week by a portfolio manager who has investments in dozens of venture capital funds, including some of the industry’s most illustrious names. I’m not (quite) so egotistical as to think he would make multi-million decisions on my two cents, but the inquiry was sincere. This is an extraordinarily tricky time to be investing in venture capital, perhaps more so than at any other time in the past two decades.

????To be clear, I’m not saying that investment returns are underwater. Quite the opposite. Venture capital fund valuations have been climbing for years, and distributions appear to be at record highs thanks to vibrant IPO and M&A markets. For example, Harvard University’s endowment reported yesterday that its VC return for fiscal 2014 was 32.8% — compared to a 15.4% return for its total portfolio and the S&P 500’s 21.38% gain over the same time period.

????But that’s the very problem: Limited partners are not investing a spot prices. They are committing to long-term funds that will (hopefully) begin generating returns several years out. And they worry that if we aren’t at a market top today, we’ll be there when it comes time to begin harvesting — leaving their VC managers with overpriced portfolios that have relatively few exit opportunities.

????Most limited partners were around for the last tech cycle, and promised to never again get sucked down the same rabbit hole. Now they see a proliferation of VC firms not only raising $1 billion funds, but also a shortening of the fundraising cycle (most notably Tiger Global seeking $1.5 billion just 5 months after closing its last $1.5 billion pool). So there are all sorts of historical data points to support pulling back right now. But what if this is really 1997 or the first half of 1998, instead of 1999? What if you bail to soon, and leave millions of dollars on the table? And what if this time really “is different,” due to both better fundamental business models, a larger pool of prospective buyers and a milder economic recovery? But, wait, isn’t even considering that “this time is different” a definitive sign to hit the road?

????So I gave the portfolio manager my most honest response: I have no idea what he should do, except perhaps to avoid anyone who answers the question with any degree of certainty.

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