金價(jià)暴跌
????對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理道格?卡斯憑借美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播電視有線電視臺(tái)（CNBC）的出鏡率和成功的賣空理念擁有大批追隨者。因此，當(dāng)他建議2011年做空黃金時(shí)，立即獲得了相當(dāng)?shù)年P(guān)注。2010年，整個(gè)華爾街甚至金融界人士祖母一輩的人們都對(duì)金燦燦的黃金充滿信心。然而，就在大多數(shù)人期待2011年金價(jià)將繼續(xù)上漲之時(shí)，卡斯卻在2011年元旦前夕斷言，黃金投資盛宴已結(jié)束。他預(yù)計(jì)在2011年初金價(jià)處于1,350美元/盎司后，金價(jià)很快就會(huì)在一個(gè)月內(nèi)下跌250美元，到年底收于1,100-1,200美元/盎司。
????卡斯表示，多重因素將推低金價(jià)：投資者已經(jīng)習(xí)慣沒(méi)有通脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇；利率上升；全球股市上漲；甚至是美國(guó)政府解決債務(wù)問(wèn)題等。這些預(yù)測(cè)無(wú)一兌現(xiàn)，而金價(jià)繼續(xù)上行。2011年夏末金價(jià)達(dá)到了1,900美元/盎司，最近報(bào)約1,600美元/盎司。2011年10月份，卡斯告訴博客作者巴瑞?里薩茲，他知道持有黃金的合理性。但他搞不懂黃金真正的價(jià)值，不愿持有。值得注意的是他沒(méi)有再預(yù)測(cè)金價(jià)下跌。 |
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Gold crash
????Hedge fund manager Doug Kass has won over fans for his CNBC appearances and successful short selling ideas. So when he suggested betting against gold in 2011, he got some attention. Just about everyone on Wall Street and their grandmother was bullish on the lustrous metal last year. And most expected a good 2011. But before the New Year, Kass called an end to the party. After trading around $1,350 an ounce to start the year, he said gold would soon fall $250 in a single month and settle at year's end between $1,100 and $1,200 an ounce.
????Kass said a host of things could send it downward: investors getting comfortable with an inflation-free economic recovery; higher interest rates; rising world stocks; even the U.S. government addressing the debt problem. None of those happened, and gold kept rising. Prices hit $1,900 an ounce in late summer before recently settling near $1,600. Kass told blogger Barry Ritholtz in October that he understands the rationale behind owning gold. But since he can't figure out what it's actually worth, he won't own it. Notably, he didn't predict another fall. |
