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阿里的收購(gòu)野心及其背后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

阿里的收購(gòu)野心及其背后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Sanjay Sanghoee 2014-09-18
就在阿里巴巴即將上市并矢志成為下一個(gè)大型科技企業(yè)集團(tuán)的檔口,投資者需認(rèn)真考慮這一野心背后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

聚焦阿里巴巴上市專題

· 阿里上千員工或分得人均數(shù)千萬(wàn)財(cái)富
· 阿里的收購(gòu)野心及其背后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
· 阿里巴巴能從亞馬遜和谷歌的IPO中借鑒什么
· 硅谷怎么看阿里巴巴?
· 阿里巴巴IPO:對(duì)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)這是一筆“撿漏”的買賣

????中國(guó)電子商務(wù)巨頭阿里巴巴(Alibaba)即將成為IPO俱樂部的最新成員,其市盈率預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到24倍,這將為該公司帶來(lái)約240億美元現(xiàn)金,使其躋身全球最大的科技公司行列。

????投資者為這一前景興奮不已是可以理解的,但更為重要的一點(diǎn)是,該公司將來(lái)或許能借入更多資金用于收購(gòu),阿里巴巴有望攜500億美元在并購(gòu)市場(chǎng)發(fā)起閃電戰(zhàn)。據(jù)彭博社(Bloomberg)稱,該公司IPO后的收購(gòu)名單可能包括即時(shí)通訊公司Snapchat和Kik、電影和電視制作公司獅門娛樂(Lions Gate Entertainment)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電視提供商Roku、云計(jì)算公司Rackspace和Akamai,甚至雅虎(Yahoo)。

????所有這些都顯示了阿里巴巴的雄心壯志,即超越現(xiàn)有核心業(yè)務(wù)電子商務(wù)并成為與谷歌(Google)或Facebook相當(dāng)?shù)目萍季揞^,后兩者在過(guò)去幾年收購(gòu)了多種領(lǐng)域的公司,包括機(jī)器人、恒溫器和煙霧報(bào)警器、健身追蹤、教育、硬件、生物科技、人工智能和虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)等。

????阿里巴巴已經(jīng)在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)進(jìn)行了收購(gòu)并在國(guó)外進(jìn)行了投資,包括汽車服務(wù)應(yīng)用程序提供商Lyft和網(wǎng)絡(luò)零售商Shoprunner。其招股書中稱:“我們已經(jīng)并準(zhǔn)備繼續(xù)進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略投資與收購(gòu),以擴(kuò)大我們的用戶群,增強(qiáng)云計(jì)算業(yè)務(wù),增加互補(bǔ)產(chǎn)品與技術(shù),并進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化我們的業(yè)務(wù)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)?!?/p>

????大型企業(yè)集團(tuán)模式在上世紀(jì)70、80年代非常流行,但逐漸退潮,因?yàn)楹芏喙景l(fā)現(xiàn)融合并管理不同業(yè)務(wù)線的難度較大。如今的行業(yè)格局已發(fā)生變化,這也是阿里巴巴有機(jī)會(huì)成功的原因,但有些事項(xiàng)需要注意。

????好的一方面是,科技領(lǐng)域天然具有融合和交互應(yīng)用潛力。例如,獅門可以為阿里巴巴制作獨(dú)家內(nèi)容,然后阿里巴巴可以通過(guò)Akamai的內(nèi)容發(fā)布網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)布,并通過(guò)Roku提供給消費(fèi)者。而且,阿里巴巴還可以將電子商務(wù)的互動(dòng)性與內(nèi)容整合起來(lái),觀看者可以在看影片時(shí)購(gòu)買產(chǎn)品,并通過(guò)Snapchat與其他觀看者就影片進(jìn)行對(duì)話溝通。這樣一應(yīng)俱全的整體模式可以為消費(fèi)者提供巨大價(jià)值,進(jìn)而給阿里巴巴帶來(lái)巨大利潤(rùn)。

????挑戰(zhàn)在于,在技術(shù)和企業(yè)兩個(gè)層面讓一切實(shí)現(xiàn)無(wú)縫融合是很復(fù)雜的,而且成本很高。大型企業(yè)集團(tuán)是大規(guī)模的企業(yè)實(shí)體,從業(yè)務(wù)角度而言可能會(huì)變得笨重而難于管理。大型企業(yè)集團(tuán)各業(yè)務(wù)部門之間的服務(wù)應(yīng)如何定價(jià)?將這些服務(wù)提供給外部公司是否會(huì)有更高的利潤(rùn)?這將如何影響母公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力?這還只是一部分有待解決的問題。

????China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba is slated to become the newest entrant to the IPO club with an expected valuation of 24 times future earnings in the public markets, which would net it almost $24 billion in cash and make it one of the largest technology companies in the world.

????Investors are understandably excited about this prospect, but more to the point, the company will likely be able to borrow even more money for acquisitions, resulting in a$50 billion war chest that Alibaba intends to use to make rapid-fire acquisitions. According to Bloomberg, the company’s post-IPO shopping list could include messaging companies Snapchat and Kik, movie and television studio Lions Gate Entertainment LGF -0.89% , Internet TV provider Roku, cloud computing companies Rackspace RAX 0.87% and Akamai AKAM 1.32% , and even Yahoo YHOO 0.38%

????What all this points to is that Alibaba has the ambition beyond its core business of e-commerce to become a technology conglomerate along the lines of a Google GOOG 1.20% or Facebook FB 2.01% , which have acquired many companies over the past few years in areas as diverse as robotics, thermostats and smoke alarms, fitness tracking, education, hardware, biotech, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality.

????Alibaba is already making acquisitions in China and investments abroad, including in car-service app provider Lyft and online retailer Shoprunner, stating in itsprospectus that “We have made, and intend to continue to make, strategic investments and acquisitions to expand our user base, enhance our cloud computing business, add complementary products and technologies and further strengthen our ecosystem.”

????The conglomerate model was wildly popular during the 1970s and 1980s but eventually fell out of favor as companies found it difficult to integrate and manage different lines of business. In the dynamics are different, and that is why Alibaba has a shot at success –with some caveats.

????On the plus side, the tech arena has the potential for integration and crossover applications naturally built in. For example, Lions Gate could make exclusive content for Alibaba, which the company could then deliver over the content-delivery network of Akamai and provide to consumers over Roku. Moreover, Alibaba could integrate e-commerce interactivity with content to enable viewers to buy products while watching a show, and to create a dialogue with other viewers about the show via Snapchat. This type of self-contained universe can provide tremendous value to consumers, and by extension, tremendous profits to Alibaba.

????The challenge here is in the complexity and cost of integrating all this in a seamless way, both on the technological as well as corporate side. Conglomerates are big entities and can become unwieldy and difficult to manage from a business perspective. How should the pricing of services between divisions of a conglomerate be determined? Would it be more profitable to provide those services to outside parties at arms length instead? And how would that impact the competitiveness of the parent company? These are just some of the questions that need to be addressed.

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