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阿里巴巴上市:雅虎成最大輸家

阿里巴巴上市:雅虎成最大輸家

Shawn Tully 2014-09-20
阿里巴巴上市當(dāng)天漲幅驚人。但稍微算一下就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),阿里巴巴及其大股東用近100億美元的成本籌集了250億美元資金,相當(dāng)于產(chǎn)生了40%的“銷售費(fèi)用”。最大的贏家是對(duì)沖基金和承銷商,而最大的輸家是雅虎和阿里巴巴公司自己。

聚焦阿里巴巴上市專題

· 阿里上市后,最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)挑戰(zhàn)是什么?
· 高利潤(rùn)率只是海市蜃樓:阿里并不像看上去那么能賺錢(qián)
· 阿里的收購(gòu)野心及其背后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
· 硅谷怎么看阿里巴巴?
· 股東再吃虧,阿里高層也不會(huì)虧
· 阿里上市造就日本新首富孫正義

????大局已定。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市當(dāng)天漲幅驚人。華爾街青睞的客戶發(fā)了一筆數(shù)十億美元的橫財(cái),為他們創(chuàng)造賺錢(qián)機(jī)會(huì)的投行也將從這些心存感激的客戶那里得到數(shù)以十億計(jì)的回饋,而讓這一切成為現(xiàn)實(shí)的阿里巴巴所有者應(yīng)當(dāng)倍感慚愧。

????差一點(diǎn)忘了說(shuō),現(xiàn)在我們知道了——至少在眼下——要得到阿里巴巴的股票得花多少錢(qián)。這場(chǎng)“秀”應(yīng)該讓大家感到驚艷,但對(duì)這只股票大家應(yīng)該敬而遠(yuǎn)之。

????周五,也就是9月19日,阿里巴巴上市首日收于93.89美元。剛一開(kāi)盤(pán)這只股票就突破了90美元,而且?guī)缀跻徽於急3衷?0美元以上;下午4點(diǎn)收盤(pán)時(shí),阿里巴巴上漲了25.89美元,和68美元的發(fā)行價(jià)相比躥升了38%。這個(gè)發(fā)行價(jià)在阿里巴巴就要上市前才敲定,是機(jī)構(gòu)投資者和少數(shù)個(gè)人從承銷商那里拿到的“內(nèi)部?jī)r(jià)”。按93.89美元的股價(jià)計(jì)算,這家中國(guó)電子商務(wù)巨擘的市值為2314億美元,達(dá)到國(guó)際領(lǐng)先水平,超過(guò)了很多上市已久的公司,比如市值均為1770億美元的甲骨文(Oracle)和英特爾(Intel),以及市值1930億美元的輝瑞(Pfizer)。

????這次外界大肆炒作的首發(fā)有些諷刺,原因有兩方面。首先,上市當(dāng)天股價(jià)飆升帶來(lái)的欣喜之情掩蓋了一個(gè)明顯的事實(shí),那就是一些人發(fā)的橫財(cái)都來(lái)自另一些人的口袋。然而,沒(méi)有人提到那些輸家,就連輸家自己也是如此。其次,這樣的估值水平給阿里巴巴設(shè)定了一個(gè)盈利標(biāo)準(zhǔn),只有達(dá)標(biāo)投資者才能受益。巨大的市值讓這只大型電商股必要的攀升顯得相當(dāng)夸張——對(duì)于錯(cuò)失“內(nèi)部?jī)r(jià)”的投資者來(lái)說(shuō)更是過(guò)于夸張,那時(shí)候的阿里巴巴絕對(duì)是樁便宜的好買賣。

????通過(guò)這次IPO,阿里巴巴本身和它的那些所有者以每股68美元的價(jià)格發(fā)行了3.20億股,投行方面有權(quán)按發(fā)行價(jià)再認(rèn)購(gòu)4800萬(wàn)股。那么,讓我們從已經(jīng)發(fā)行和可能發(fā)行的股票數(shù)量開(kāi)始,它們的總量為3.68億股,按每股68美元的水平計(jì)算,融資總額為250億美元。但要知道,如果按93.89美元的收盤(pán)價(jià)發(fā)行,從而讓阿里巴巴及其股東獲得這些股票的全部?jī)r(jià)值,他們籌集到的就不是250億美元,而是346億。或者說(shuō),他們把96億美元“當(dāng)做了小費(fèi)”,同時(shí)還向六家承銷商支付了約3.50億美元手續(xù)費(fèi)。也就是說(shuō),阿里巴巴及其大股東用近100億美元的成本籌集了250億美元資金,相當(dāng)于產(chǎn)生了40%的“銷售費(fèi)用”。華爾街的數(shù)學(xué)難道不美妙嗎?

????那么,贏家和輸家都是誰(shuí)呢?作為一個(gè)整體,最大的贏家是對(duì)沖基金等機(jī)構(gòu),他們?cè)谝惶熘畠?nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)了96億美元的賬面和現(xiàn)金收益。作為IPO的策劃者,六家承銷商也大賺了一筆??蛻舻玫竭@96億美元橫財(cái)后,將用幾周乃至幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間把其中的30%以高額傭金的形式回饋承銷商。也就是說(shuō),除了3.50億美元的手續(xù)費(fèi),承銷商還將獲利29億美元。別忘了阿里巴巴高層,他們給了自己按發(fā)行價(jià)認(rèn)購(gòu)2200萬(wàn)股的權(quán)力,這讓他們也能在一天之內(nèi)賺到5.70億美元。

????It’s official. Alibaba’s IPO pop was stupendous, Wall Street’s favorite clients get billions of dollars in found money, investment banks will pocket billions from those grateful clients for orchestrating the windfall, and the owners who let it happen should be thoroughly ashamed.

????I almost forgot to mention: Now that we know—at least for now—the sheik’s ransom you’ll have to pay to own Alibaba stock, you should marvel at the show. But avoid the stock.

????On Friday, September 19, Alibaba shares closed its first day of trading at $93.89. The stock shot into the $90s right at the opening bell and pretty much stayed there all day, registering a gain by the 4 p.m. close of $25.89. That’s a pop of 38%, from the offering price of $68, the insider price that underwriters charged institutional investors and a small group of individuals just before Alibaba started trading. At $93.89, the Chinese e-commerce colossus now boasts a world-class market cap of $231.4 billion. Its valuation exceeds those of such market veterans as Oracle and Intel (both $177 billion), and Pfizer ($193 billion).

????This heavily hyped debut is a travesty in two respects. First, the euphoria over the gigantic opening-day jump masks what should be obvious: that every dollar someone earned in quick gains came from someone else’s pocket—and no one is talking about the losers, not even the losers themselves. Second, the valuation sets a benchmark for how much Alibaba has to earn in order to enrich investors. The Chinese e-commerce giant’s fabulous market cap makes the necessary climb quite steep; too steep for investors who missed the insider share price—the one time Alibaba really was a steal.

????In the IPO, Alibaba, the company itself, and several of its owners, sold 320 million shares at $68, and the investment bankers reserve the right to buy 48 million more shares at the offering price. So let’s start with the total shares already sold, and likely to be sold, at the $68 price. That’s 368 million shares. The offering will then raise $25 billion. Remember, if Alibaba and its shareholders had gotten full value for their shares at the closing price of $93.89, they would have collected not $25 billion, but $34.6 billion. So they left $9.6 billion “on the table.” They also paid around $350 million in fees to their six underwriters. So it cost Alibaba and big shareholders almost $10 billion to raise $25 billion; that’s the equivalent to a sales charge of 40%. Isn’t Wall Street math fabulous?

????So who are the winners and losers? As a group, the biggest winners are the hedge funds and other institutions that tallied $9.6 billion in paper and cash gains in a single day. As architects of the offering, the six underwriters are golden as well. They should recoup 30% of the $9.6 billion windfall handed to their clients in high commissions over the coming weeks and months. That’s $2.9 billion, in addition to $350 million in fees. Let’s not forget the managers, who granted themselves an option to buy 22 million shares at the offering price. Their one-day gains: $570 million.

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