經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩：商界急需喬布斯式的勇氣
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????史蒂夫?喬布斯的巨大成就教會(huì)我們很多東西，其中勇氣的重要性在當(dāng)前表現(xiàn)得尤為突出。 ????我這里所說(shuō)的并非他直面健康狀況的勇氣，不過(guò)，如果我們能有幸了解更多內(nèi)情，想必這個(gè)問(wèn)題也值得大書(shū)特書(shū)。 ????我要說(shuō)的是他作為商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖的非凡勇氣。作為蘋(píng)果首席執(zhí)行官，他一次又一次推出前所未有的全新產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)甚至全套商業(yè)模式。他蔑視市場(chǎng)測(cè)試（因此得以對(duì)計(jì)劃嚴(yán)加保密），他無(wú)法確定是否會(huì)取得成功，如果不幸失敗，可能會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大損失和世人的嘲笑。 ????然而，他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的蘋(píng)果是史上產(chǎn)品成功率最高的公司之一，作為首席執(zhí)行官，他是最偉大的財(cái)富創(chuàng)造者，其他人都望塵莫及。如果他沒(méi)有過(guò)人的勇氣，這一切都不可能發(fā)生。 ????早在喬布斯辭職之前，這就已經(jīng)是個(gè)熱門(mén)話題，因?yàn)檫^(guò)去幾年來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩使許多經(jīng)理人深感憂懼，不敢采取行動(dòng)。他們不斷見(jiàn)證本來(lái)不可能發(fā)生的事情，比如美國(guó)債信評(píng)級(jí)遭到下調(diào)，今后還會(huì)發(fā)生什么事？這種不確定性使他們呆若木雞，束手無(wú)策。 ????一本題為《不確定性：化疑慮和憂懼為成功動(dòng)力》（Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance）的商業(yè)類(lèi)書(shū)籍將于下周出版，這可不是巧合。一位名叫比爾?特雷熱的咨詢師專(zhuān)門(mén)向經(jīng)理人傳授勇敢之道，藉此建立起自己的公司（進(jìn)入咨詢業(yè)之前，他的拿手絕技是在自己身上點(diǎn)火，然后從百英尺高臺(tái)躍入水中）。美國(guó)商會(huì)（Americas Business Council）去年主辦了一場(chǎng)勇氣論壇。關(guān)于這個(gè)話題的文章和博客帖子似乎也越來(lái)越多。 ????沒(méi)有任何跡象表明商業(yè)界的混亂形勢(shì)將會(huì)緩解，那么，商業(yè)勇氣現(xiàn)在意味著什么呢？包括下列幾點(diǎn)： 投入大量資金 ????大多數(shù)商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖應(yīng)對(duì)不確定性的第一招就是緊縮開(kāi)支，有時(shí)甚至是急劇削減。問(wèn)題是，有時(shí)候這些開(kāi)支實(shí)際上屬于投資，它們?cè)谖磥?lái)可以帶來(lái)豐厚的回報(bào)，比如研發(fā)、市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)和工廠產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)大等方面的支出。削減這部分開(kāi)支可以提高眼前利潤(rùn)，但卻會(huì)侵蝕日后的利潤(rùn)。 ????優(yōu)柔寡斷的經(jīng)理人往往抱怨，他們削減此類(lèi)開(kāi)支是因?yàn)槭艿侥抗舛虦\的投資者的壓力?？墒?，紐約大學(xué)（New York University）教授巴魯奇?勒夫等人的研究顯示，事實(shí)并非如此：投資者能夠區(qū)分創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的開(kāi)支和不能創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的開(kāi)支。 ????勇敢的經(jīng)理人在充滿不確定性的時(shí)候仍會(huì)持續(xù)進(jìn)行創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的投資。即使是在大蕭條期間，杜邦（DuPont）也維持了研發(fā)支出，發(fā)明了尼龍、氯丁橡膠等產(chǎn)品，它們?cè)谥蟮膸资昀餅楣举嵉昧藬?shù)十億美元。沃倫?巴菲特最近對(duì)美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）的投資也是經(jīng)理人勇氣的典型例子，眼下經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很大，伯克希爾哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）在此情況下向遭投資者鄙視的美銀投資50億美元，這需要膽量——巴菲特正是藉此才成為巨富。 |
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????Of all that Steve Jobs' achievement has taught us, the importance of courage is especially relevant now. ????I don't mean his courage in facing his health issues, though that will be a story in itself if we ever learn the details. ????I mean his extraordinary courage as a business leader. Time and again, as the CEO of Apple (AAPL), he introduced products, services, and entire business models completely unlike anything in existence. He disdained market testing (thus keeping his plans secret), he could not be sure he would succeed, and he risked significant losses and ridicule if he failed. ????Yet his batting average was one of the all-time best, and as a CEO, he was the greatest wealth creator ever. No one else comes close. None of it could have happened without off-the-charts courage. ????The topic was hot even before the Jobs news because the economic chaos of the past few years has paralyzed managers with fear. They keep seeing events that are supposed to be impossible, such as a U.S. debt downgrade, and the uncertainty of what may happen next leaves them frozen, afraid to do anything. ????It's no coincidence that a business book called Uncertainty: Turning Doubt and Fear Into Fuel for Brilliance will be published next month. A consultant named Bill Treasurer has built his practice on teaching courage to managers (before consulting, he made a living by diving into water from 100 feet while on fire). The Americas Business Council held a Courage Forum last year. Articles and blog posts on the subject seem to be on the upswing. ????Nothing suggests the business world is getting any less chaotic. So what does business courage mean right now? A few things. Committing significant money ????The number one way most business leaders respond to uncertainty is by pulling back expenses, sometimes radically. Trouble is, sometimes those expenses are actually investments that will pay off in the future, like R&D, marketing, and plant expansion. Cutting them will result in higher reported profits today but lower profits later. ????Pusillanimous managers complain that they're forced to make these cuts by short-term oriented investors. But research by New York University's Baruch Lev and others shows that it isn't so. Investors can tell the difference between spending that builds value and spending that doesn't. ????Brave managers keep making value-creating investments in uncertain times. DuPont (DD) maintained R&D spending even through the Great Depression, inventing nylon, neoprene, and other products that would earn billions for decades thereafter. Warren Buffett's recent investment in Bank of America (BAC) is a great example of managerial courage. Putting $5 billion of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) capital into a scorned stock with the economy in peril takes guts. That's what has made him rich. |
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