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專欄 - Geoff Colvin

如何走出創(chuàng)新者的窘境

Geoff Colvin 2014年01月13日

杰奧夫·科爾文(Geoff Colvin)為《財(cái)富》雜志高級(jí)編輯、專欄作家。美國(guó)在管理與領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力、全球化、股東價(jià)值創(chuàng)造等方面最犀利也是最受尊重的評(píng)論員之一。擁有紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院MBA學(xué)位,哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)榮譽(yù)學(xué)位。
許多公司似乎無力自救,眼睜睜地看著自己跳進(jìn)創(chuàng)新者的窘境這個(gè)陷阱,遭遇滅頂之災(zāi)?,F(xiàn)在,思科公司掌門人想出了一個(gè)看起來很有前景的應(yīng)對(duì)策略。他能成功嗎?

????如果說商界中人個(gè)個(gè)都對(duì)“創(chuàng)新者的窘境”耳熟能詳,非常了解它是怎么發(fā)生的,如何讓不少成功的大公司走進(jìn)死胡同,那為什么無數(shù)商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖依然難逃此劫呢?

????17年前,哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)的克萊頓·克里斯坦森出版了《創(chuàng)新者的窘境》(The Innovator's Dilemma)一書。但時(shí)至今日,我們依然看到許多公司前赴后繼地跳進(jìn)這個(gè)陷阱,眼睜睜地看著自己無法脫身。一個(gè)最新的例子是美國(guó)膠合板產(chǎn)業(yè)。在中國(guó)廉價(jià)進(jìn)口貨品的沖擊下,美國(guó)硬木膠合板制造商正在遭遇滅頂之災(zāi),所以它們抱團(tuán)取暖,懇請(qǐng)美國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易委員會(huì)(U.S. International Trade Commission,簡(jiǎn)稱ITC)宣布中國(guó)制造商正在傾銷膠合板(即以“低于公允價(jià)值”的價(jià)格在美國(guó)銷售商品),同時(shí)要求它制止這種行為。11月,ITC拒絕了這項(xiàng)請(qǐng)求。心有不甘的膠合板制造商們正在就此裁決提出申訴。它們說,來自中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力在某種程度上導(dǎo)致膠合板制造商在過去4年流失了25,000個(gè)工作崗位。

????《今日美國(guó)》( USA Today)最近一篇報(bào)道援引一位高管的話,非常簡(jiǎn)潔地描述了這個(gè)行業(yè)衰落的真相:“最初涌入的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品價(jià)廉質(zhì)劣,但隨后變得越來越好,一步步地爬向食物鏈的上游?!?/p>

????當(dāng)然,這恰恰是創(chuàng)新者窘境的演變方式。正如克里斯坦森的如椽大筆所述,處于市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的成功企業(yè)往往樂于把低端市場(chǎng)讓給那些制造價(jià)廉質(zhì)劣產(chǎn)品的新競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,因?yàn)檫@些產(chǎn)品的利潤(rùn)率往往最低;放棄這類產(chǎn)品可以增加市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者自身的整體利潤(rùn)率。但蓄謀篡位的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手正在獲得規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢(shì),同時(shí)不斷創(chuàng)新經(jīng)營(yíng)方式,開始進(jìn)軍更高一級(jí)的產(chǎn)品類別。市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者或許也樂意放棄這個(gè)品類,因?yàn)檫@樣做可以進(jìn)一步提升整體利潤(rùn)率。

????也就是說,“市場(chǎng)破壞者”變得越來越好,不斷地爬向食物鏈的上游。市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者(比如美國(guó)的膠合板制造商)通常直到深陷困境之際,才如夢(mèng)方醒。

????早在17年前,克里斯坦森就描述了這一幕降臨到鋼材、建筑設(shè)備等諸多行業(yè)頭上的情形。此外,他還描述了許多聰穎過人的成功企業(yè)家落入這個(gè)陷阱的情形。這部著作是過去50年最重要的商業(yè)書籍之一,已經(jīng)成為一本超級(jí)暢銷書,書名本身也已經(jīng)成為人們頻頻使用的商業(yè)詞匯。但就如何避免陷入“創(chuàng)新者的窘境”而言,似乎沒有證據(jù)表明經(jīng)理人有了哪怕一丁點(diǎn)的進(jìn)展。

????看看約翰?錢伯斯為避免這個(gè)陷阱而進(jìn)行的新穎嘗試,將會(huì)很有啟發(fā)性。眼下,一種名為“軟件定義網(wǎng)絡(luò)”(software-defined networking)的新技術(shù)正在強(qiáng)勢(shì)崛起,情形看起來就像是一個(gè)經(jīng)典的創(chuàng)新者窘境。身為網(wǎng)絡(luò)市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的思科公司(Cisco)公司感受到了威脅,于是公司CEO的錢伯斯召集一批工程師,加入一家新成立的獨(dú)立公司,找出擊退市場(chǎng)破壞者的策略。

????這種方法聽起來前景光明,甚至有可能真的行得通。倘若如此,我們將面臨一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的問題:有沒有人能從中學(xué)到點(diǎn)什么呢?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:葉寒????

????If absolutely everyone in business knows about the innovator's dilemma -- how it works, how it often dooms big, successful companies -- then why is avoiding it still so extraordinarily hard for business leaders?

????Harvard's Clayton Christensen published The Innovator's Dilemma 17 years ago, yet we continue to see companies marching into the buzz saw, eyes wide open, apparently helpless to save themselves. The latest example is, of all things, the U.S. plywood industry. The makers of hardwood plywood were getting killed by cheap Chinese imports, so they banded together and petitioned the U.S. International Trade Commission to declare that Chinese makers were dumping -- selling something in the U.S. at "less than its fair value" -- and to put a stop to it. The ITC turned them down in November. The plywood makers, who are appealing the decision, say they've had to eliminate 25,000 U.S. jobs over the past four years partly because of Chinese competition.

????What actually happened to the industry is described pithily by an executive quoted in a recent USA Today article: "The Chinese came in with a low-price, low-quality entry, then got better and better and worked up the food chain."

????That is of course precisely how the innovator's dilemma plays out. As Christensen powerfully showed, successful incumbent companies are often happy to cede the bottom of the market to new competitors making cheap, crummy products because those products often earn the lowest profit margins; by dropping out of those categories, the incumbents increase their own overall margins. But the insurgent competitor is gaining economies of scale while innovating ways to compete in the next higher category. Incumbents may be happy to let that category go too, because doing so will again raise their overall profit margins.

????That is, the insurgents get better and better, working up the food chain. The incumbents -- the plywood makers, for example -- typically don't wake up until they're in deep trouble.

????Christensen showed 17 years ago how that scenario has played out in steel, construction equipment, and many other industries. He described how smart, successful executives fall into the trap. His book, one of the most significant business books of the past 50 years, became a mammoth bestseller, and its title entered the language. Yet no evidence seems to suggest that managers have improved even a little at evading one of business's most disastrous blunders.

????It will be instructive to watch John Chambers' intriguing attempt to avoid the trap. Threatened by the rise of a new technology called software-defined networking, in what looks like a classic innovator's-dilemma situation, the CEO of networking incumbent Cisco (CSCO) has assembled a group of engineers into a new, free-standing company to figure out how to defeat the insurgents.

????The approach sounds promising. It might even work. If it does, we'll face the really interesting question: Will anyone learn from it????

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