中國(guó)領(lǐng)銜新興市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)大轉(zhuǎn)型
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????最近我和一些專家探討了新興市場(chǎng)，談話重點(diǎn)是消費(fèi)者的行為——目前這是一個(gè)重要問(wèn)題，原因在于，在許多新興市場(chǎng)，中產(chǎn)階級(jí)在不斷壯大，而且中國(guó)政府的政策旨在將這個(gè)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)基礎(chǔ)從投資和出口轉(zhuǎn)向消費(fèi)。但眼下出現(xiàn)了幾個(gè)新趨勢(shì)，其中一些出人意料。了解這些趨勢(shì)對(duì)投資者和生意人來(lái)說(shuō)至關(guān)重要。 ????? 隨著收入由低到高，消費(fèi)者的支出會(huì)首先用于攝取熱量，這很自然。隨后，在人均年收入達(dá)到1500美元左右時(shí)，他們就會(huì)把支出用于更多地從蛋白質(zhì)中攝取熱量。接下來(lái)，他們很快就會(huì)開(kāi)始把錢用在熟悉的消費(fèi)品上，比如個(gè)人護(hù)理產(chǎn)品，甚至是較大的物品，特別是空調(diào)。10年來(lái)，中國(guó)的人均空調(diào)保有量直線上升。但對(duì)手機(jī)的渴望經(jīng)常會(huì)讓這種趨勢(shì)在剛剛出現(xiàn)時(shí)就受到影響。和我會(huì)面的專家們指出，許多新興市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)者都會(huì)為了通訊而放棄營(yíng)養(yǎng)。Facebook創(chuàng)始人馬克?扎克伯格的看法是，互通信息是人們的權(quán)力。他當(dāng)然會(huì)這么說(shuō)，但也許會(huì)有很多人認(rèn)同他的觀點(diǎn)。 ????? 消費(fèi)者想要更好的出行條件，但這方面的趨勢(shì)不像我們所想的那么明顯。在印度，一家四口同騎一輛摩托車不是什么不尋常的現(xiàn)象，所以我們認(rèn)為他們會(huì)想要一輛轎車。他們確實(shí)是這么想的——直到有車的人太多時(shí)，人們就會(huì)想要摩托車，以便繞開(kāi)堵在路上的轎車。 ????? 隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)成熟，一個(gè)特別明顯的趨勢(shì)是，人們非常想得到當(dāng)?shù)氐母邫n酒。越南的竹管酒、菲律賓的椰酒和中國(guó)的白酒——當(dāng)人們（好吧，準(zhǔn)確說(shuō)是男人們）的口袋里有了一點(diǎn)兒可支配收入的時(shí)候，他們顯然覺(jué)得非常有必要在買酒方面比以前多花點(diǎn)錢。 ????? 但政府可以遏止某種趨勢(shì)。中國(guó)的奢侈品市場(chǎng)曾經(jīng)飛速增長(zhǎng)，直到國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平表示奢侈鋪張不好，特別是政府官員。多年來(lái)一直很紅火的中國(guó)奢侈品市場(chǎng)去年基本上在原地踏步。 ????? 以前消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買的許多產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)在都可以分享，或者作為服務(wù)來(lái)消費(fèi)。在農(nóng)村貧困地區(qū)，大家會(huì)共用一部手機(jī)。不像固定電話，共享手機(jī)很容易。通過(guò)類似于Zipcar的租車服務(wù)，城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)的消費(fèi)者可以只在自己需要的時(shí)候用車。這樣，在邁向繁榮的過(guò)程中，他們消費(fèi)大宗產(chǎn)品的時(shí)間會(huì)遠(yuǎn)早于以往。 ????? 我們都知道，新興市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)者將重組世界經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序。但如果西方消費(fèi)者想當(dāng)然地以為自己明白具體的過(guò)程，就會(huì)碰到麻煩。一定要關(guān)注現(xiàn)實(shí)發(fā)生的趨勢(shì)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：Charlie ???? |
????As I was talking recently with a group of experts on emerging markets, we focused on consumer behavior -- an important issue now as many of those markets build growing middle classes, and Chinese government policy aims to shift the world's second-largest economy from being investment- and export-based to being consumer-based. A few trends, some surprising, emerged as vital for investors and business people to understand: ????? As incomes rise from low levels, consumers first spend money on more calories, naturally enough, and then, somewhere around $1,500 of annual per capita income, they spend in order to get more of those calories from protein. Soon after that they start spending on familiar consumer goods, such as personal care products and even on larger capital goods, notably air conditioners; the number of air conditioners per capita in China has rocketed in the past decade. But this early progression is often disrupted by a desire for a cell phone. The experts said that many emerging-market consumers will sacrifice nutrition for connection. Facebook's (FB) Mark Zuckerberg argues that connectivity is a human right. Of course he would say that, but his position may well become widely shared. ????? Consumers want better transportation, but the progression isn't as obvious as we may think. In India it isn't unusual to see a family of four on a motor scooter, so we expect them to want a car. Which they do -- until too many people get cars, and then people want scooters in order to get around the cars that are stuck in traffic. ????? A remarkably consistent trend as economies mature is a strong desire for a premium version of the local hooch. Ruou in Vietnam, Lambanog in the Philippines, the infamous Baijiu in China -- when people (okay, men) get a little disposable income in their pockets, they apparently feel a powerful need to pay more for booze than they used to. ????? But governments can stop trends. The growth of the luxury goods market in China was stupendous until President Xi Jinping decreed that ostentation is now uncool, especially among government officials. After years of booming, the luxury goods market was virtually flat in China last year. ????? Many products that consumers used to buy can now be shared or consumed as services. In poor rural villages, groups of people will jointly get a cell phone, which is easily shared, unlike a landline phone. Urban consumers employ Zipcar-like services to use a car only when they need it. As a result, these people can consume major products much earlier in their rise to prosperity than previously. ????? We all know that emerging market consumers will reorder the world economy. But we Western consumers will get into trouble if we assume we know how it will happen. The real trends demand attention. |
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