成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

訂閱

多平臺閱讀

微信訂閱

雜志

申請紙刊贈閱

訂閱每日電郵

移動應(yīng)用

專欄 - 斯坦福商學(xué)院評論

18世紀(jì)阿姆斯特丹金融危機(jī)啟示錄

彼得?庫迪斯 2014年06月03日

本專欄由財富中文網(wǎng)與斯坦福商學(xué)院合作推出,薈萃來自該學(xué)院的最新研究智慧。斯坦福商學(xué)院一直以教授的前沿研究和專業(yè)的管理課程在全球范圍內(nèi)久負(fù)盛名,包括MBA項目和斯坦?!包c(diǎn)燃”創(chuàng)新項目。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家研究發(fā)現(xiàn),個人的親身經(jīng)歷比其他因素更能影響一個人的風(fēng)險偏好,悲觀者和樂觀者之間真正的區(qū)別在于他們是否親身經(jīng)歷過這樣的痛苦過程。這一點(diǎn)至今沒有改變。

??? 為什么會有這樣的不同?原因并不是因為雙方獲得的信息不同。正如庫迪斯和沃斯所指,荷蘭金融圈里的每個人都知道和了解所發(fā)生事件的嚴(yán)重程度。也不是因為Seppenwolde的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)不得不重建自身財務(wù)。違約幾周后,貸款機(jī)構(gòu)就知道他們沒有損失一毛錢。

????但是折幅差異持續(xù)了整整兩年。事實上,Seppenwolde貸款機(jī)構(gòu)的悲觀和避險情緒降低了阿姆斯特丹總體可用杠桿。

????庫迪斯和沃斯在孜孜不倦分析荷蘭金融記錄的過程中得出了結(jié)論,悲觀者和樂觀者之間真正的區(qū)別在于他們是否親身經(jīng)歷過這樣的痛苦過程。庫迪斯認(rèn)為,可以類比的是那些經(jīng)歷過大蕭條的人們的行為:這些人在大蕭條夢魘過去后的幾十年里,一直回避金融風(fēng)險。

????荷蘭危機(jī)牽涉到成熟的金融專業(yè)人士,那些慣于分析金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢的人們。但是,他們過于看重個人經(jīng)驗。

????“它說明人們看重個人經(jīng)驗,勝過其他可用信息,”庫迪斯表示。人們離一個重要事件的中心越遠(yuǎn),此事對他們的風(fēng)險胃口影響就越小。

????不清楚到底是荷蘭哪一方貸款機(jī)構(gòu)錯了。有可能Seppenwolde的貸款機(jī)構(gòu)忽略了更大范圍內(nèi)的金融狀況,過于悲觀。有可能另一方貸款機(jī)構(gòu)在忽略東印度危機(jī)的沖擊意義時過于隨意。無論是哪一種情況,荷蘭危機(jī)都說明,即使是成熟的投資者也會因為個人原因而變得樂觀或悲觀。

????庫迪斯認(rèn)為,這一點(diǎn)在預(yù)防21世紀(jì)的泡沫和破滅方面具有重要的監(jiān)管意義。

????“如果貸款機(jī)構(gòu)在市場繁榮時過于樂觀,而在市場下行時過于悲觀,這或許是當(dāng)局設(shè)定保守的資本金要求的一個最好理由,”他說?!凹哟笳鄯赡軙种谱畛醯臐q幅,但當(dāng)市場轉(zhuǎn)向,它們也能抑制隨后的跌幅?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

????本文作者彼得?庫迪斯是斯坦福大學(xué)商學(xué)院助理金融教授。

????譯者:早稻米

???Why the difference? It wasn’t because of a difference in the available information. As Koudijs and Voth point out, everybody in Dutch financial circles knew and understood the magnitude of what had happened. Nor was it because the Seppenwolde lenders had to rebuild their own finances. Within weeks of the default, the lenders knew they hadn’t lost any money.

????Yet, the disparity in haircuts lasted for almost two years. In fact, the pessimism and risk-aversion of the Seppenwolde lenders reduced the overall availability of leverage in Amsterdam.

????In a rigorous analysis of Dutch financial records, Koudijs and Voth conclude that the only real difference between the pessimists and the optimists was whether they had gone through a harrowing personal experience. Koudijs compares it to the behavior of people who lived through the Great Depression, and who avoided financial risk for decades after trauma had passed.

????The Dutch case involved sophisticated financial professionals, people accustomed to analyzing financial and economic trends. Yet, they too focused on their personal experience.

????“It suggests that people put more weight on what happened to themselves and less weight on other information that might be available,”Koudijs says. The more personally removed people are from an important event, the less it is to affect their appetite for risk.

????It’s not clear which group of Dutch lenders was wrong. It’s possible that the Seppenwolde lenders ignored the evidence about broader financial conditions and were too pessimistic. It’s also possible that the other lenders were too casual in brushing off the implications of the East India mess. Either way, the Dutch episode suggests that even sophisticated investors become optimistic or pessimistic for myopic reasons.

????To Koudijs, this has important regulatory implications for heading off 21st-century bubbles and busts.

????“If lenders are too optimistic during market booms and too pessimistic in downturns, that could be a good reason for authorities to set conservative capital requirements,” he suggests. “Higher haircuts might dampen the initial run-ups, but they could also dampen the subsequent fallouts when tides turn.”

????Peter Koudijs is an assistant professor of finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business.

上一頁 1 2

我來點(diǎn)評

  最新文章

最新文章:

中國煤業(yè)大遷徙

500強(qiáng)情報中心

財富專欄

女同国产精品一区二区| 亚洲综合无码明星蕉在线视频| 久久久久精品国产三级| 久久99国产综合精品| 无码人妻αⅤ免费一区二区三区| 天天躁夜夜躁狠狠躁2021| 久久久久久A亚洲欧洲AV| 精品视频无码一区二区三区| 无遮挡又粗又大又黄在线视频| 国产福利在线永久视频| 一区二区三区无码视频在线| 亚洲日本va中文字幕久久| 国产精品麻豆成人AV电影| 岳的又肥又大水多啊喷了视频| 无码AⅤ精品影院亚洲AV无码成人专区片在线观看| 在线天堂中文最新版网| 免费少妇A级毛片美女剃毛| 69精品人妻一区二区三区蜜桃| 国产18精品亚洲精品无码视频| 精品国产高清三级在线观看| 国产精品一久久香蕉国产线看| 精品无码久久久久久久久| 性色AV一区二区三区无码| 无码熟妇人妻AV国产精品交换| 亚洲三区欧美一区二区在线| 国产av午夜一级毛片| 人人妻人人澡人人爽欧美二区| 亚洲AV秘无码一区二区三资讯,| 亚洲AV日韩AV永久无码免下载| 亚洲一区精品人人爽人人躁| 成人午夜免费在线观看| 国产一级 片射在线观看| 午夜天堂av天堂久久久| 久久精品6毛片基地免费看| 久久久久久久综合日本| 天天久久狠狠伊人第一麻豆| 日日摸人人澡97香蕉| 国产欧美一区二区精品每日更新| 午夜亚洲国产理论片二级港台二级| 国产精品亚洲а∨无码播放| 欧产日产国产精品精品|